Purchase 1.69mil 0.35-‐0.50 2.95mil BCS 1.00mil Fit 4.90mil Not Fit 0.50-‐0.65 4.90mil Return Purchase BCS … … 1.43mil ARCS >5.16mil Don’t Return Purchase BCS AOG 1.48mil 1.49mil By Air AOG DECISION TREE ARCS ARCS 1.48mil By Land 0.8 Arrive on ?me (Under 11 hrs) 0.2 Don’t Repair (Buy New) 100mil 1.65mil Late (Over 11 hrs) Purchase 1.69mil 0.35-‐0.50 2.95mil BCS 1.00mil Fit 4.90mil Not Fit 0.50-‐0.65 4.90mil Return Purchase BCS … … 1.43mil ARCS >5.16mil Don’t Return Purchase BCS AOG 1.48mil ARCS 1.49mil By Air ARCS 1.48mil By Land 0.8 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 1 Arrive on ?me (Under 11 hrs) 0.2 Don’t Repair (Buy New) 100mil 1.65mil Late (Over 11 hrs) Purchase 1.27mil 0.35-‐0.50 2.95mil BCS 1.00mil Fit 4.90mil Not Fit 0.50-‐0.65 4.90mil Return Purchase BCS … … 1.43mil ARCS >5.16mil Don’t Return Purchase BCS AOG 1.48mil ARCS 1.49mil By Air 1.48mil By Land ARCS 0.8 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 2 Arrive on ?me (Under 11 hrs) 0.2 Don’t Repair (Buy New) 100mil
