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Assignment 2 – Part 1 MKTG127 DEMOGRAPHIC FUNDAMENTALS

A.)

I.) Briefly discuss the projection methods used by each organisation.

After thorough analysis of the population projections created by the Australian Intergenerational Report, the United Nations (UN), the World Bank (WB), US Census Bureau (USCB), IIASA- INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE for Applied Systems Analysis, and the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), it is highly apparent that each organisation employs the cohort-component method in terms of the development of their population projections. This can be seen as each population projection utilises the grouping of cohorts to update the age and sex specific components of population change fertility, mortality, and migration. (Idea/concept Provided from DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, VOLUME 4, ARTICLE 8, PAGES 203-288 PUBLISHED 13 JUNE 2001). However it is evident that each organisation also has subtle variations within their form of the cohort-component method in comparison to each other. These are only subtle differences such as Different age grouping.

ii. Compare and contrast the main characteristics of the long term population projections produced by the UN, the WB, USCB, IIASA and PRB (mention at least two points for each organisation)

It is highly clear that amongst all the population projections produced by the UN, the WB, USCB, IIASA and PRB that there are both similarities and differences, which occur in terms of the characteristics of each population projection. Both the USCB and UN are similar terms of both their population projections where last introduced in 1998, they are also similar again in the fact that the time horizons are the same with both projections being estimated for 2050. The PRB, is also similar two both the USCB and UN as its time horizon for the projection is set for 2050. Also all three organisations level of aggregation is...

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