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April 11, 2012

Major League Baseball Research Paper

Research is made of two categories, applied research, and basic research. Applied research is used by individuals on a daily basis to solve problems that occur in a business or a personal atmosphere. Basic research, also known as fundamental research, or pure research, is used to create a body of knowledge that is available to solve or predict problems before they occur. The purpose of basic research is not the formation of a definite solution, but to create a set of probabilities to predict current or future events. Team B has chosen a set of data that includes statistic relating to the business of Major League Baseball. The statistical value of this sport is more main-stream than ever after the release of Money Ball, a movie based on true events that focused solely on statistics and not player’s visual abilities or presence. Team B will use the statistics presented to determine if there is a measurable advantage in the production of games won based on a team’s payroll, facility size, and attendance record. The statistics provided are for the years of 1989 to 2005. Team B will attempt to predict who the Major League Champion will be in 2006 using only the statistics given in the data set. Purpose of the research The purpose of this research is for Team B to try and determine the 2006 Major League Baseball, (MLB) champion with data provided only through 2005. The problem with this research is there are multiple variables that take place. For example, the data shows teams with higher attendance both in the higher bracket and lower bracket of wins. Same goes for the error statistics; St Louis Cardinals committed 100 errors but also the most wins with 100. One more obvious problem in this research is the wide gap in team salary ranging anywhere from 29 million dollars to more than 200 million dollars. These identified problems are critical to the investigation of who will be the 2006 MLB world champion because there is no regulated formula used by team owners to become world champions. Team B however will take the limited data and provide a hypothesis with various possible outcomes. “The purpose of research is really an ongoing process of correcting and refining hypotheses, which should lead to the acceptance of certain truths” (Purpose Of Research, 2008-2012). Problem Definition According to Decision Making (2010), "A clear problem definition is the first, and, perhaps, most important step toward rationally selecting the best alternative. Many dedicated and intelligent individuals have produced elegant solutions for problems other than those they were tasked to solve” (Problem Definition). In this case Team B’s primary goal is to find the 2006 Major League Baseball (MLB) champion. Unfortunately, runs scored which is one of the key components are not listed on the data provided, therefore Team B will investigate using alternative statistics such as team’s payroll, facility size, attendance record, and wins. Statistics prove that teams with the least amount of errors do not necessarily have the greatest amount of wins. Statistics also prove that teams with the higher amount of salaries do not necessarily have the greatest amount of home runs. Statistics do show, however, teams with the lowest ERA often finish with the most wins.

|Team |Salary -mil |Wins |ERA |HR |Error |

|Seattle |87.8 |69.0 |4.49 |130 |86 |

|Atlanta |86.5 |90.0 |3.98 |184 |86 |

|Los Angles Angels |97.7 |95.0 |3.68 |147 |87 |

|Oakland |55.4 |88.0 |3.69 |155 |88 |

|Houston |76.8 |89.0 |3.51 |161 |89 |

|San Francisco |90.2 |75.0 |4.33 |128 |90 |

|Philadelphia |95.5 |88.0 |4.21 |167 |90 |

|Washington |48.6 |81.0 |3.87 |117 |92 |

|Chicago White Sox |75.2 |99.0 |3.61 |200 |94 |

|Arizona |62.3 |77.0 |4.84 |191 |94 |

|New York Yankees |208.3 |95.0 |4.52 |229 |95 |

|Toronto |45.7 |80.0 |4.06 |136 |95 |

|St Louis |92.1 |100.0 |3.49 |170 |100 |

Although the ERA is not the determining factor of the MLB champion, it is a contributor. Team B will take this into consideration as well as other variables in the data provided. Research Hypothesis The outcome of attendance has a major role for the hypothesis formed by Team B and is the dependant variable. Team B’s null hypothesis is that the attendance has not changed in the year of 2005. A team’s outcome due to a team’s attendance record is a key factor in Team B’s hypothesis in determining the measurable advantage in a team’s record of ball games won in a year. Team B’s hypothesis is that teams with abnormally attendance records will help determine the team that will produce more wins due to attendance records based on these facts alone. A Hypothesis is a tentative statement about the relationship between two variables, usually in the form of a prediction: “If A, then B” (Paul & Elder, 2006). When conducting research on a team’s payroll, Team B must look at the numbers generated through the years of 1989-2005 to determine whether or not these numbers have an active role in the productivity of a team’s record within junction of attendance. This will help to clarify the reasoning between teams with an elite record as opposed to a team with a bad record. This variable will be tested through the later weeks of this assignment and will be a factor for Team B as analyzing different variables becomes relevant. A team’s facility size will also be a variable that will be conjured upon and serve as a tool for clarification in games won throughout the baseball season. Attendance records will be Team B’s dependent variable and will most definitely be a deciding variable that will enhance a team’s record. Each of these variables will have different levels of measurements and the scale of measurements in the facts in Team B’s statistics given in the data set. The levels of measurement used will be ordinal, interval, and ratio to determine how attendance will be a factor in wins in a season. Deciphering between these variables in the data set alone will give Team B a concrete platform to base the statistics given to determine which variable has more of an influence on games won. A team’s payroll is a measurement of high concern because it allows teams to trade, bargain, and buy out players of high caliber from other teams. The measurement of a team’s facility size is a variable that will be discussed and looked upon. This variable is a factor but likely a smaller variable when considering the other factors that will transpire to a team’s winning record. The last variable to consider is attendance. This particular variable will be high on the list of deciding factors of how a team performs and how it reflects a team’s record. The measurement and dependant variable for week two for Team B is attendance. In conclusion, to predict the 2006 winner of the World Series, Team B will take into consideration the variables stated herein. These variables will help to clarify and determine how Team B will come to a conclusion for the winner of the 2006 baseball season. From here out, Team B will gather these facts and other peer reviewed articles and discuss how other sources of information is relevant. Team B will also calculate the measurements of central tendencies, dispersions, and statistical data to conclude how the winner of the 2006 Major League Baseball was found through statistical data using graphical and tabular techniques.

References

Decision Making. (2010). Retrieved from http://www.au.af.mil

Paul, R. & Elder, L. (2006). Critical thinking: Tools for taking charge of your learning and your

life (2nd ed.). Upper Saddle River: NJ: Prentice Hall.

Purpose of Research. (2008-2012). Retrieved from http://www.experiment-resources.com

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