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2011年第14期(总第139期) 2011年6月16日

| | |期货合约规格发展研究[1] |
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|栏目:市场研究 | | |
|作者:张丽芳 | |合约规格是影响合约流动性的关键因素,对合约的成败至关重要。在期货合约发展的历史上,对合约规 |
| | |格进行调整已经是司空见惯的现象,根据不同的目的,有些期货合约进行了“瘦身”,有些期货合约进行 |
| | |了“增肥”。近年来,商品期货mini合约竞相推出,使得合约规格开始进入人们的视野。本篇报告梳理了 |
|编辑:朱晓燕 | |国内外期货合约规格调整的主要事件、归纳了mini合约的主要特点、分析了促使合约规格进行调整的主 |
| | |要驱动因素,同时阐述了合约规格设计中需考虑的几个关键因素。 |

期货合约规格发展研究
| | | |
| | |合约规格(Contract |
|合约规格是影响合约流动性的关键| |Size)是指单一期货合约的货币交易价值。合约规格是影响合约流动性的关键因素,对合约的成败至关 |
|因素,对合约的成败至关重要。 | |重要。1969年,CBOT为与COMEX展开竞争,开发了银期货合约。相比COMEX每手10000盎司的合约规格,CB|
| | |OT新开发的银期货合约每手为5000盎司。除合约规格之外,其它合约条款均保持一致。CBOT的银期货合 |
| | |约上市三年之后,其交易量就已经达到COMEX银期货合约的50%。为应对来自CBOT的竞争,COMEX被迫将银|
| | |期货的合约规格调整为每手5000盎司,并一直维持至今。 |
| | |在期货合约发展的历史上,对合约规格进行调整已经是司空见惯的现象,根据不同的目的,有些期货合 |
| | |约进行了“瘦身”,有些期货合约进行了“增肥”。近年来,商品期货mini合约竞相推出,使得合约规格开 |
| | |始进入人们的视野。本报告梳理了国内外期货合约规格调整的主要事件、归纳了mini合约的主要特点、 |
| | |分析了促使合约规格进行调整的主要驱动因素,同时阐述了合约规格设计中需考虑的几个关键因素。 |
|一、期货合约规格的调整历史 |
| | |期货合约规格的“瘦身” |
| | |1、 美国芝加哥商品交易所(CME)对S&P500期货合约进行“瘦身” |
| | |美国芝加哥商品交易所(CME)在1997年11月3日修改了S&P500期货合约,合约乘数减半,由500美元降至25|
| | |0美元,最小价格波动幅度由0.05增加至0.1(见表1)。 |
|CME于1997年将S&P500股指期货的 | |S&P500股指期货于1982年4月开始交易时,合约乘数为500,当时S&P500指数为120点,合约价值为60000 |
|合约规格缩小了一半。调整后交易| |美元左右; 1996年底指数上升到700点左右,单张合约价值上升至350000美元左右,大约是刚开始交易 |
|量无明显变化。悉尼期货交易所19| |时的6倍。考虑到较大的合约规格不利于中小投资者参与交易,CME决定分割S&P500的合约单位。由于最 |
|93年将SPI的合约规格调整为原有 | |小价格波动价值占期货合约价值的比例过小,价格谈判成本过高,CME同时决定提高S&P500股指期货的最|
|的1/4。调整后,合约的交易量、 | |小价格波动单位。 |
|交易频率、小额投资者的数量等都| |由于同期E-miniS&P500股指期货推出造成的交易量分流,此次合约“瘦身”对交易量的影响并不显著。不 |
|得到明显的增加。 | |过有关CME调整S&P500股指期货合约的目的,学术界褒贬不一。一种观点认为CME调整合约的主要目的是 |
| | |通过手续费的增加,提高会员的收入;另一种观点则认为合约“瘦身”主要是为了活跃市场流动性,吸引 |
| | |中小投资者的参与。 |
| | |2、悉尼期货交易所对股指期货合约SPI(Share Price Index)进行“瘦身” |
| | |1993年10 |
| | |月11日,悉尼期货交易所把股指期货SPI的合约乘数从100澳元降至25澳元;最小价格波动单位从0.1 指 |
| | |数点上升为1个指数点;初始保证金水平也从之前的6000澳元降到1/4水平——1500澳元,调整情况见表2。|
| | |悉尼期货交易所减小合约规模,是因为SPI股指期货1个合约单位的成交量占总交易量的比例较高,表明 |
| | |合约规模对小规模资金的交易者造成了明显的阻碍作用。SPI股指期货合约分割以后,对于同样的交易金|
| | |额,交易费用会增加4倍,交易者支付给经纪商的佣金也会增加,由于经纪商之间的竞争,这部分费用的|
| | |增加额度一般会小于合约交割的比例。SPI合约规格调整之后,合约的交易量、交易频率、小额投资者的|
| | |数量等都得到明显的增加。 |
| | | |
| | |期货合约规格的“增肥” |
| | |1、悉尼期货交易所对90天短期利率期货BAB(Bank Accepted Bill) “增肥” |
| | |悉尼期货交易所的短期利率期货BAB于1979年开始交易,是美国期货市场之外第一个被开发的利率期货,|
| | |也是目前世界上交易最活跃的短期利率期货之一。1993年5月1日悉尼期货交易所把BAB的合约规模调高了|
| | |1倍,而其他条款维持不变。这种调整的初衷主要是考虑较大的短期利率合约规模更符合国际标准,同时|
| | |交易费用的降低也可以吸引更多国外大型机构投资者的参与。 |
| | |2、上海期货交易所对燃料油期货合约“增肥” |
| | |2010年12月29日,中国证监会正式下文批复,同意上海期货交易所修订燃料油标准合约。修订后的合约 |
| | |将交易单位从原来的10吨/手调高至50吨/手。此次合约调整,主要是针对市场过度的流动性,希望通过增|
|为增加机构投资者的参与比例,悉| |加合约规格提高中小投资者的进入门槛,防止过度投机;同时促进产业客户参与期货市场,优化期货市 |
|尼期货交易所1993年提高了BAB合 | |场的投资者结构。 |
|约的合约规格。| | |
|二、小规格Mini合约竞相推出 |
| | |自1997年CME推出S&P500迷你合约之后,金融期货迷你合约便如同期货界的一匹黑马,凭借小的合约规格|
| | |、电子化的交易方式,交易量飞速上升,成为期货市场热门的交易品种。效仿金融迷你合约的成功模式 |
| | |,近几年,各交易所纷纷推出了商品期货迷你合约。 |
| | |mini合约的合约特点分析 |
| | |表3—表6比较了国外几种主要商品期货合约和金融期货合约的标准合约和相应mini合约的规则设计情况。|
|Mini合约的几个特点:在标准合约| |比较mini合约和标准合约的合约细则,可以发现以下几个特点: |
|发展较为成熟时,推出mini合约;| |1、在标准合约发展较为成熟,市场增量较为缓慢时,各交易所竞相推出基于标准合约的mini合约,以吸|
|mini合约的设计遵循便利性原则,| |引中小投资者的参与,增加市场容量,提高产品精细度; |
|以方便中小投资者的参与;由于mi| |2、mini合约的设计遵循便利性原则,以方便中小投资者的参与。如合约规格一般为大合约的1/2、1/5,|
|ni合约和标准合约的强关联性,导| |或者1/10,在交割方式上主要采取现金交割,且有些mini合约可以和标准合约按一定比例进行对冲; |
|致其具有较强的抗操纵性。 | |3、虽然小合约进入门槛较低,主要面向一些中小投资者,但由于其价格和标准合约的关联性较强,且结|
| | |算价一般以标准合约为参照,因而抗操纵性较强。 |
| | | |
| | |mini合约的功能发挥情况 |
| | |为了考察mini合约的功能发挥情况,表7随机选取了一个交易日(2011年5月13日),统计了mini合约和 |
| | |相应标准合约的交易量以及持仓量情况。由表7可以发现,商品mini合约的交易量和持仓量较低,只有标|
| | |准合约的百分之一、或者千分之一,尤其是伦敦金属交易所和新加坡交易所于2011年2月15日推出的金属|
| | |期货迷你合约,当日几乎无成交。与此相反,金融迷你合约S&P500的交易却非常活跃,甚至超过了标准 |
|由于投资者结构的不同,金融mini| |合约的成交量和持仓量。CME主席Scott Gordon在2000年就曾指出,电子交易的E-Mini产品是CME有史以 |
|合约一般具有较高的流动性,而商| |来增长幅度最大和增长最快的产品。标准S&P500期货合约是在1982年开发上市的,是交易活跃、成功的 |
|品mini合约的流动性则比较差。投| |期货合约;而E-Mini |
|资者的交易惯性、mini合约的抗操| |S&P500期货合约是1997年引入的,但它在短短几年内交易金额就超过了普通S&P500期货合约。中小投资 |
|纵性,以及个人投资者投资于指数| |者对证券市场的关注度和参与积极性比较高,金融期货迷你合约的推出降低了投资者的进入门槛,为中 |
|基金的广泛程度,都造成商品期货| |小投资者提供了低成本的进入通道,使得金融mini合约的交易显得异常活跃。 |
|mini合约的低流动性。 | |相比金融期货mini合约的高流动性,商品期货迷你合约推出后表现出的低流动性,可能存在以下几个原 |
| | |因: |
| | |1、投资者的交易惯性所致。习惯于标准合约的投资客户会继续沿袭以往的投资习惯。 |
| | |2、迷你合约的抗操纵性较强,降低了mini合约对中小投资者的吸引力。 |
| | |3、商品期货市场是一个专业化的小众市场,国外成熟商品期货市场,更是呈现出以机构投资者占主导的|
| | |局面。而个人投资者往往通过指数基金的渠道参与商品期货的投资。 |
| | | |
| | |mini合约推出对原有合约的影响 |
| | |E-mini合约作为新的交易模式的引入,对原有的交易模式,或者说标准合约的交易市场存在两个方向相 |
| | |反的影响:一是加剧了市场竞争。mini合约的合约规格、交易方式、交割模式等都不同于标准合约,因 |
| | |而与标准合约存在竞争关系,竞争的加剧将促使做市商缩小买卖价差,并增加交易量。二是造成了市场 |
| | |分割。新市场的形成将造成交易量的分流,mini合约的低成本和现金交割规则的设计,对于小投资者而 |
| | |言是一种更为合适的投资工具,因而E-mini合约更像是一个零售市场,而标准合约公开喊价的交易方式 |
| | |以及大合约的特点,更多呈现出批发市场的特征。市场分流将造成原有市场的交易效率降低、买卖价差 |
| | |扩大。因而衡量新的交易模式对原有市场的影响,需要权衡竞争加剧和市场分流造成的综合影响。 |
|迷你合约推出对标准合约市场存在| |随着竞争的加剧,各交易所推出mini合约的步伐将不会停止,不过针对已有商品期货合约低流动性的现 |
|两个方面相反的影响:一是加剧了| |实,交易所是否会加大创新力度,进行更多的探索和实践,我们也将拭目以待。 |
|市场竞争;二是形成了市场分割。| | |
|三、合约规格调整的主要驱动因素 |
| | | 梳理上述有代表性的期货合约规格调整事件,可以归纳出交易所调整合约规格的几个驱动因素: |
|合约规格调整的几个驱动因素:一| |一是通过调整合约的进入门槛,改变市场投资者的构成。如通过对S&P500股指期货合约进行分割,或者 |
|是通过调整合约的进入门槛,改变| |推出mini合约,降低中小投资者的进入门槛,丰富投资者的构成,增加市场流动性。对于合约分割有可 |
|市场投资者的构成;二是通过产品| |能造成的交易费用增加,可以通过降低每手合约手续费、以交易金额的百分比收取手续费等方式,减少 |
|细分,保持产品竞争力;三是通过| |因合约“瘦身”造成的交易成本增加。在流动性较为充沛的条件下,也可以参照悉尼期货交易所对BAB利率|
|调整合约规格,提高市场效率。 | |期货合约规格的调整,通过扩大合约规格,提高机构投资者的参与比例,优化投资者的结构。 |
| | |二是保持产品竞争力的竞争策略。在交易所之间的竞争日趋白热化的市场环境下,对新产品的角逐使得 |
| | |交易所的产品创新空间越来越狭窄,因此,对原有期货合约进行拓展和精细化管理成为目前交易所获取 |
| | |竞争力的主要途径之一。基于原有合约推出mini合约,将通过产品细分,满足不同层次投资者的需求, |
| | |成为提升产品竞争力的新亮点,对完善产品系列、优化投资者结构、活跃市场的流动性均具有重要的战 |
| | |略意义。 |
| | |三是通过调整合约规格,提高市场效率。随着合约的发展,原有的合约规格会显得“太大”(如股指期货 |
| | |合约),则缩小合约规格有助于提高期货市场的套期保值效率,提高投资者进行组合投资的精益程度。 |
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|四、影响合约规格设计的主要因素 |
| | |在合约规格设计中,投资者的资金实力、风险承受能力以及期货市场的投资者结构都是需要考虑的关键 |
|合约规格需要和合约的风险价值相| |要素。 |
|匹配,通过成本的权衡,尽可能符| |期货交易具有杠杆性,一定比例的保证金是交易所为防范投资者违约风险而设置的一道屏障,而保证金 |
|合投资者的资金实力。监管者对投| |水平也代表了投资者参与期货交易的门槛。一般而言,期货合约的保证金水平与合约规格和价格波动幅 |
|资者结构的预期也影响了合约规格| |度有关。若合约规格较大,则由于保证金的水涨船高,会增加投资者的入市成本,阻碍投资者参与交易 |
|的设计。 | |,降低市场的流动性。即使投资者参与交易,其资金量往往也只能买卖单张合约,造成单张合约的交易 |
| | |占总交易笔数的比例过高,影响交易进程和交易效率。若期货合约的价格波动幅度较大,则投资者的违 |
| | |约风险会比较高,所需支付的保证金水平也会比较高,形成较高的投资门槛。如S&P500指数就是因为合 |
| | |约规格随着指数的攀升而被放大,远远超出了一般投资者的资金实力,阻碍了交易的进程,最终迫使CME|
| | |缩小了合约规格。因而合约规格需要和合约的风险价值相匹配,通过成本的权衡,尽可能符合投资者的 |
| | |资金实力,通过吸引适当投资者的参与,提高交易效率,提升市场的功能。 |
| | |监管者对投资者结构的预期也影响了合约规格的设计。不同期货合约的投资主体不同,投资者结构也存 |
| | |在差异,为有效发挥期货市场的功能,交易所在合约规格的设计上需要充分考虑这种需求,通过合约规 |
| | |格的大小引导适当的投资者参与期货市场交易。一般来讲,利率期货和汇率期货的投资主体以机构投资 |
| | |者为主,因而利率期货合约和汇率期货合约的合约规格都比较大。如前所述,为吸引更多机构投资者参 |
| | |与,悉尼期货交易所对BAB期货合约进行了扩容。为防止过度投机,促进产业客户参与市场,上海期货交|
| | |易所提高了燃料油的合约规格,同时“试水”铅期货大合约。 |
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重要声明:文中观点仅代表作者个人,与所在单位无关。本报告版权归上海期货交易所所有。未经书面授权,本报告的任何部分均不得以任何方式复印、分发,或以任何侵犯本单位版权的其他方式使用。否则,本单位将保留随时追究其法律责任的权利。
联系人:朱晓燕 联系方式:021-68400685 zhu.xy@shfe.com.cn

附表:

表1: S&P500股指期货合约调整情况
| |1997-11-3之前 |1997-11-3之后 |
|合约规模 |500*S&P500指数 |250*S&P500指数 |
|最小价格波动单位 |0.05 |0.1 |
|最小价格波动价值 |$25 |$25 |

表2: 股指期货合约SPI的调整情况
| |1993-10-11之前 |1993-10-11之后 |
|合约单位 |100*AOI(All Ordinaries Index) |25*AOI |
|最小价格波动 |0.1指数点 |1指数点 |

表3:标准合约和迷你合约推出时间比较
| |类型 |名称 |标准合约 |迷你合约 |
| |农产品 |CBOT-玉米 |1859 |2007-05-14 |
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|商品期货 | | | | |
| | |CBOT-小麦 |1859 |2007-05-14 |
| | |CBOT-大豆 |1936 |2007-05-14 |
| |能源 |NYMEX-原油 |1983 |2006-06-11 |
| |金属 |COMEX-铜 |1988 |2006-12-04 |
| | |LME-铜 |1987 |2006-12-04 |
| | |LME-铝 |1986 |2006-12-04 |
| | |LME-锌 |1986 |2006-12-04 |
| | |COMEX-黄金 |1974 |2010-10-04 |
|金融期货 |股指 |S&P 500 |1982 |1997-09-09 |

表4:标准合约和mini合约的合约规格比较
| |类型 |名称 |大合约 |迷你合约 |比例关系 |
| | |CBOT-小麦 |5000蒲式耳 |1000蒲式耳 |5:1 |
| | | | |(约25公吨) | |
| | |CBOT-大豆 |5000蒲式耳 |1000蒲式耳 |5:1 |
| | | | |(约27公吨) | |
| |能源 |NYMEX-原油 |1000桶 |500桶 |2:1 |
| | | |(42000加仑) | | |
| |金属 |COMEX-铜 |25000磅 |12500磅 |2:1 |
| | |LME-铜 |25公吨 |5公吨 |5:1 |
| | |LME-铝 |25公吨 |5公吨 |5:1 |
| | |LME-锌 |25公吨 |5公吨 |5:1 |
| | |COMEX-黄金 |100盎司 |10盎司 |10:1 |
|金融期货 |股指 |S&P 500 |250美元乘以标准普尔指 |50美元乘以标准普尔指数 |5:1 |
| | | |数 | | |

表5: 标准合约和mini合约的交割方式比较
| |类型 |名称 |标准合约 |迷你合约 |标准合约和迷你合约的对冲机制 |
| | |CBOT-小麦 |实物交割 |实物交割 |按5:1的比例可以实现标准合约和 |
| | | | | |迷你合约的对冲平仓操作 |
| | |CBOT-大豆 |实物交割 |实物交割 |按5:1的比例可以实现标准合约和 |
| | | | | |迷你合约的对冲平仓操作 |
| |能源 |NYMEX-原油 |实物交割 |现金交割 |— |
| |金属 |COMEX-铜 |实物交割 |现金交割 |— |
| | |LME-铜 |实物交割 |现金交割 |— |
| | |LME-铝 |实物交割 |现金交割 |— |
| | |LME-锌 |实物交割 |现金交割 |— |
| | |COMEX-黄金 |实物交割 |实物交割 |— |
|金融期货 |股指 |S&P 500 |现金交割 |现金交割 |按5:1的比例可以实现标准合约和 |
| | | | | |迷你合约的对冲平仓操作 |

表6: 标准合约和mini合约交易模式比较
| |类型 |名称 |标准合约 |迷你合约 |
|商品期货 |农产品 |CBOT-玉米 |公开喊价 |公开喊价 |
| | | |电子交易 |电子交易 |
| | |CBOT-小麦 |公开喊价 |公开喊价 |
| | | |电子交易 |电子交易 |
| | |CBOT-大豆 |公开喊价 |公开喊价 |
| | | |电子交易 |电子交易 |
| |能源 |NYMEX-原油 |公开喊价 |电子交易 |
| | | |电子交易 | |
| |金属 |COMEX-铜 |公开喊价 |电子交易 |
| | | |电子交易 | |
| | |LME-铜 |公开喊价 |电子交易 |
| | | |电子交易 |电话交易 |
| | | |电话交易 | |
| | |LME-铝 |公开喊价 |电子交易 |
| | | |电子交易 |电话交易 |
| | | |电话交易 | |
| | |LME-锌 |公开喊价 |电子交易 |
| | | |电子交易 |电话交易 |
| | | |电话交易 | |
| | |COMEX-黄金 |公开喊价 |电子交易 |
| | | |电子交易 | |
|金融期货 |股指 |S&P 500 |公开喊价 |电子交易 |
| | | |电子交易 | |

表7: 标准合约和mini合约交易量和持仓量比较(2011年5月13日)
|合约名称 |交易量 |持仓量 |
|CBOT-Corn |225662 |1423459 |
|CBOT-mini-Corn |1431 |1044 |
|比例关系 |158:1 |1363:1 |
|LME-铜 |155628 |274532 |
|LME-SGX-mini-铜 |_ |68 |
|比例关系 |_ |4037:1 |
|S&P 500 |12624 |322629 |
|Mini-S&P 500 |2234635 |2677356 |
|比例关系 |1:177 |1:8 |

-----------------------
[1] 本报告为上海期货交易所发展研究中心课题《合约规格对期货市场发展的影响》的阶段性研究成果。

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[pic]

股票研究

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2009-02-11浦发银行

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