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Ocean Carriers

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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT Directorate L. Economic analysis, perspectives and evaluations L.5. Agricultural trade policy analysis

Brussels, July 2008

High prices on agricultural commodity markets: situation and prospects A review of causes of high prices and outlook for world agricultural markets

This working document does not necessarily represent the official views of the European Commission

High prices on agricultural commodity markets: situation and prospects Contents 1. 2. 3. 4. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................... 3 INTRODUCTION AND STOCKTAKING................................................................ 4 FACTORS BEHIND INCREASING PRICES ........................................................... 6 TEMPORAL DIMENSION OF FACTORS: TEMPORARY OR STRUCTURAL......................................................................................................... 11 4.1. Changes in agricultural production and trade due to physical characteristics of production ........................................................................... 11 4.2. Economic parameters ...................................................................................... 14 4.2.1. 4.2.2. 4.2.3. 4.2.4. 4.3.1. 4.3.2. 4.3.3. 4.3.4. 4.3.5. Population and income growth.......................................................... 14 Price of crude oil and related costs.................................................... 16 Currency movements......................................................................... 21 Activities on the commodity exchange markets................................ 23 Stocks and related policies ................................................................ 26 Agricultural policy and its reforms

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