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Odd Molly, Finance

In: Business and Management

Submitted By olabje
Words 1348
Pages 6
Företagsvärdering

PM 3
FEKH80
HT-11
2011-10-20

Författare:

Inledning
I vår företagsvärdering har vi valt att jämföra följande företag, Odd Molly, Björn Borg, MQ Holding och Kapp Ahl. Företagen är verksamma i branschen sällanköp textil och är noterade på OMX Mid/Small Cap.
Vi inledde analysen med att jämföra Odd Molly med liknande företag i branschen för att se om vi kunde hitta några markanta skillnader som skulle kunna tyda på fel värdering.

Ratio | Odd Molly | Björn Borg | MQ Holding | Kapp Ahl | P/E-tal | 11,84x | 17,19x | 21,96x | 9,89x | EV/Sales | 0,95x | 2,55x | 1,35x | 1,14x | EV/EBITDA | 6,28x | 10,26x | 10,09x | 7,44x | EBITDA/Sales | 15,2% | 24,8% | 13,4% | 15,4% |

Val av företag
Utifrån våra nyckeltal kan vi notera att Odd Molly har ett högre P/E tal än Kapp Ahl men lägre än MQ Holding och Björn borg. MQ Holding har det högsta P/E talet av våra fyra företag. Generellt kan man säga att ju lägre P/E tal desto bättre. I jämförelse med de andra företagen har Odd Molly det lägsta EV/sales och EV/EBITDA. Ett lågt EV/EBITDA skulle kunna vara ett tecken på att företaget är undervärderat. Man brukar anse att ett högre EBITDA/Sales är att föredra då det skulle kunna tyda på att företaget håller sitt resultat på en god nivå. När vi studerar våra EBITDA/sales ser vi att Odd Molly befinner sig under Björn Borg och Kapp Ahl.
Vi har både jämfört dessa företag utifrån senaste kvartalsredovisning samt årsredovisning för år 2010. Den senare har dock visat en mer rättvisande bild av företagets siffror och vi har därför valt att utgå från den. | Range | | Pris (Mkr) | | Ratio | Low | High | Low | High | P/E-tal | 9,89x | 21,96x | 358,02 | 794,95 | EV/Sales | 1,14x | 2,55x | 401,41 | 902,74 | EV/EBITDA | 7,44x | 10,26x | 401,88 | 554,20 |

Vi har valt att granska företaget Odd Molly till vår aktieanalys. Det är ett ungt svenskt modeföretag som grundades 2002. De har sedan starten haft en kraftig tillväxt både i Sverige och utomlands. Året 2010 var ett händelserikt år med ett listbyte från First North till NASDAQ OMX Stockholm. Samma år öppnade de upp butiker i Los Angeles och Köpenhamn. Man lanserade även en egen herrkollektion och öppnade även två outletbutiker.

Analys av Inputsvärden
Försäljningstillväxt
Under början av vår granskningsperiod ökade omsättningstillväxten med över 100 % per år. Det har sin förklaring i att det är ett ungt företag som expanderade som mest de första åren. De två senaste årens tillväxttakt har varit mer rimlig, den har det sista året varit på 8 % och året dessförinnan varit 23 %. Odd Molly har själva ett mål på en omsättningstillväxt på 20 % per år. De anser att de har kunnat hävda sig bra bland sina konkurrenter trots att de är verksamma i en bransch som är utsatt för stark konkurrens. De har haft en snabb organiskt tillväxt och i nuläget bedömer bolaget att de kommer att ha kapacitet att klara av en betydande omsättningsökning. Med ovanstående som utgångspunkt väljer vi att använda oss av en omsättningstillväxt på 20 %.
Avkastningkrav
För att räkna ut ett lämpligt avkastningskrav för Odd Molly, började vi med att beräkna beta-värdet som ska användas i CAPM för uträkning av aktieägarnas avkastningskrav.
Vi jämförde företagets aktieutveckling med OMX under perioden 2008-01-02-2010-01-31. Vi valde att inte ha med 2007 då det var året de noterades, vilket kan medföra att aktien riskerar att inte vara rätt värderad. Då vi endast har tillgång till begränsad historisk aktiekursutveckling för Odd Molly så är vi medvetna om att beta-värdet kan vara något missvisande. Vi räknade fram överavkastningen utifrån den givna perioden och multiplicerade dessa två för att räkna ut kovariansen. Beta-värdet fick vi fram genom att dividera kovariansen med marknadsportföljens varians. Vi har använt oss av riskfri ränta på 3,3 % och riskpremie på 4,5 % (Riskpremien på den svenska aktiemarknaden, mars 2011, PWC) när vi räknar ut avkastningskrav. Vår CAPM beräkning gav en avkastning på 3,8 % på eget kapital, men Odd Molly har de senaste fem åren haft en genomsnittlig avkastning på eget kapital på ca 50%. Därför anser vi att 3,8 % är ett alltför lågt avkastningskrav till aktieägare samtidigt som 50 % är ett väldigt högt krav som kan vara svårt för företaget att leverera framöver. Därför har vi valt en, enligt oss, mer rimlig avkastning på eget kapital på 17 % i vår beräkning av Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). Vi använde oss av en räntekostnad på 7 % för att spegla den åtstramande penningpolitiken. Våra uträkningar resulterade i en WACC på 15 %, vilken vi använde i våra beräkningar.
Rörelsemarginal
Företagets rörelsemarginal har under åren 2006-2010 i genomsnitt varit 16 % medan medianen var 14 %, vilket ger ett snitt på 15 %--> lägger oss därför mitt mellan på 15%. de tv VD om företagets mål för denna tillväxt.. . Under 2008 hade företaget den högsta marginalen på 25 % och år 2010 låg den på 14 %. Företagets mål är att hålla rörelsemarginalen överstigande 12 %. Vi anser utifrån detta att en rimlig rörelsemarginal skulle vara 13 %.
Skatt
Den svenska bolagsskatten är på 26,3 %. Majoriteten av Odd Mollys försäljningsintäkter kommer från Sverige, men de har även flera butiker utomlands. Detta kan komma att påverka skattesatsen. Dock anser vi att denna påverkan är marginell och därför kommer vi använda oss av en skattesats på 25 %.
Investeringar i anläggningstillgångar
För att kunna göra en bedömning av Odd Mollys framtida investeringar i anläggningstillgångar har vi jämfört tidigare års förändring i investeringar i relation till förändring i nettoomsättning. Jämförelsen gav oss en median på 3 % och ett medelvärde på ca 8 %. Företagets investeringar har främst bestått av nya butiker, inventarier och i viss mån IT-system. Vi justerade upp ökningen måttligt till 10 % då Odd Mollys snitt befinner sig på en låg genomsnittlig nivå i förhållande till företagets tillväxtplaner.
Omsättningstillgångar
Vi har valt att särredovisa våra likvida medel under finansiella tillgångar i Rappaport-modellen, då dessa uppgår till ca 56 % av omsättningstillgångarna. Vår beräkning gav en genomsnittlig ökning i omsättningstillgångar med 41 %, vilket vi anser är orimligt högt. Det är framförallt kundfordringarna som har ökat kraftigt. Fortsätter de att öka i samma takt kan detta leda till försämrad likviditet. Ett rimligt antagande är att omsättningstillgångarna ska öka med 20 %, i linje med försäljningstillväxten.
Aktievärdering
Vi har använt oss av årsredovisningar fram till år 2010 som underlag för vår aktievärdering. Vår initiala beräkning av diskonteringsräntan gav oss en WACC strax under 4%, vilken vi anser orimligt låg med hänsyn till den mycket höga genomsnittliga avkastningen på eget kapital. Därför valde vi att justera upp räntan som resulterade i en WACC på 15 %.
Som tidigare nämnt har vi använt oss av data fram till 31/12- 2010 då aktiekursen stod i 74,5kr. I vår Rappaport-analys fick vi fram ett aktievärde på 68,08kr, vilket vi väljer att jämföra med stängningskursen för 24/3-2010 då årsredovisningen offentliggjordes. Kursen stod då i 74kr, vilket indikerar att bolagets aktie då var övervärderad i förhållande till vårt framräknade pris på 68,08kr. Det är värt att påtala att Odd Mollys aktie idag har fallit ändå ned till 35kr (2011-10-13), vilket i viss mån styrker vårt antagande om övervärdering. Den breda nedgången som aktieägarna fått vittna om under året kan inte enbart härledas till negativa och bolagsspecifika händelser utan är troligtvis till större del relaterat till den systematiska risken i det mörka börsklimatet.

Känslighetsanalys

Utifrån vår ’single assumption sensitivity analysis’ så kan vi dra slutsatsen att förändringar i försäljningstillväxten, rörelsemarginalen och WACC är de tre värdedrivare som har störst inverkan på vårt framräknade aktiepris. Hur vi uppskattat dessa till rimliga värden är därmed av största vikt för att ge en så realistisk aktievärdering som möjligt. Som känslighetsanalysen visar på, har en lägre justering av WACC den största inverkan på aktiepriset tillsammans med generella förändringar i rörelsemarginalen. En illustration på hur känslig aktiekursen är för förändringar är vid en nedjustering av WACC på 4% rusar aktiepriset med ungefärligen 50kr, vilket ger en aktiekurs på 119,14kr.

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