...CHAPTER 7 DECISION MAKING AND CREATIVITY Describe the six stages in the rational choice decision process Decision making: the conscious process of making choices among alternatives with the intention of moving toward some desired state of affairs. Rational choice paradigm of decision making: the view in decision making that people should and typically do, use logic and all available information to choose the alternative with the highest value. Decision making involves identifying, selecting and applying the best possible alternative. The best decision use pure logic and all available information to choose the alternative with the highest value Such as highest expected profit, customer satisfaction, employee wellbeing or some combination of these outcomes. Subjective expected utility: the probability (expectation) of satisfaction (utility) resulting from choosing a specific alternative in a decision. Decision making process: systematic application of stages of decision making. 1. Identify problem or opportunity 2. Choose the best decision process 3. Develop alternative solutions 4. Choose the best alternative 5. Implement the selected option 6. Evaluate decision outcomes Problem with Rational choice paradigm: 1. Impossible to apply in reality 2. Difficulty recognising problems 3. Process the huge volume of information 4. Difficulty recognising when choices have failed 5. Focusing on logical thinking, ignores emotion influence...
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...“Ford Motor Company” Barbara Wilson Professor Andrea Dennis Business 302 February 7, 2011 Discuss at least three criteria the company should use to decide which of the four listed options is best and the reasons why each criterion should be used. “Steps to Rational Decision Making” Define the problems: Ford Motor has been losing money for years, particularly in its North American operations. Option one is to close down older plants in an effort to realign production and sales. The best criteria decision to use should be “Steps to Rational Decision Making”. The first step in decision making is to identify and define the problem. Identify Decision Criteria are the standards used to guide judgments and decisions. Weight the Criteria. After identifying decision criteria, the next step is deciding which criteria are more or less important. Some companies use mathematical models for weighting decision criteria, all require the decision maker to provide an initial ranking of the criteria. Some use absolute comparisons, in which each criterion is compared to a standard or ranked on its own merits. Another method uses relative comparisons, in which each criterion is compared directly to every other criterion. Some criteria weight that guided decision maker’s judgment to close or not close the company included the cost of present inventory sales. Also cost to buying out the workers, shuttering the plants, setting up a new business and selecting a new location for...
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...Revision for topic: Planning & Decision Making There are 4 benefits of planning: 1. Intensified Effort- Managers and employees put forth greater effort when following a plan. 2. Planning leads to persistence, that is, working hard for long periods. In fact, planning encourages persistence even when there may be little chance of short-term success. 3. The 3rd of planning is direction which it encourages managers and employees to direct their persistent efforts toward activities that help accomplish their goals and away from activities that don’t. 4. It encourages the development of task strategies. In other words, planning not only encourages people to work hard for extended periods and to engage in behaviours directly related to goal accomplishments, it also encourages them to think of better ways to do their jobs. Pitfalls of Planning There are 3 pitfalls of planning: 1. It can impede change and prevent or slow needed adaptation. 2. Planning can create false sense of certainty. Planners sometimes feel that they know exactly what the future holds for their competitors, their suppliers and their companies. However, all plans are based on assumptions. 3. Detachment of planners- in theory, strategic planners and top-level managers are supposed to focus on the big picture and not concern themselves with the details of implementation e.g. carrying out the plan. Plans are meant to be guidelines, not abstract theories. Consequently...
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...of meeting demand with high quality products delivered on-time. Analysis, Recommendations, Future The urgent decision to build a gateway without paying adequate attention to information integrity and timeliness is a likely predictor of future disappointments and suboptimal performance at WoodSynergy. An SCM, or any IT system for that matter, is only as good as the information that goes into it, and it was a trigger-happy decision to place standardization and real-time interfacing above information integrity and timeliness. Real-time interfacing with mediocre-quality, relatively antiquated data is not an optimal operation. While initial results seem indisputably positive with over $1.5 million in cost savings, wide spread approval among RDMs, and a significant efficiency increase in order processing time, there is no reference to an analysis of alternatives. An optimal decision would have evaluated the remediation strategy and gateway prototype against a range of other feasible options, specifically against the other mediation approaches. WoodSynergy needs to increase the speed with which it processes orders and makes sound decisions regarding operational efficiency and logistics. This makes networking a more snug fit for the organization than remediation. As stated, WoodSynergy already has a good rapport with its primary suppliers, so the company could leverage these healthy relationships to form new ones, eventually building alliances with new partners in the value chain...
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...data illustrated in the Answer Report are shown here: It can be seen that the final value which is the optimal objective function value is $1,522,130. (one million, five hundred and twenty two, and one hundred thirty) And the optimal solution is shown in the table below: As the result, the number of Swimming(X1), Body Combat(X4), and Spinning Bike(X5) courses reach the maximum limitation. The result does not surprise us at all and it goes just like what we thought at the beginning. Because these three are the most profitable courses. We should have them as many as possible as long as they are under the resources constraints. The bottom table shows the status of the resources under the optimal solution. In order to maximum the profit, we need to monitor the resources. Some of them indicating binding and zero slack which means that if we change the value of them, the optimal solution will have to change. It’s worth to mention that Demand is not used up in this optimal solution. The information tells us that the Sporting Center still have rooms to be improved to attract more customers . For example, the Sporting Center can hire more Teaching Assistants or increase their electricity expense budget. Except the Answer Report, we have run the Sensitivity Report which can explain the data accuracy and robustness. This report tells us that the optimal solution is pretty robustness. Because the range we can change the profit margin...
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...6/27/2014 Decision Science Assignment – 1 to 3 Kyaw Thike Tun ID No. - 213 Yangon Institute of Economics | Department of Management Studies | Online MBA Programme | 1. Describe the decision-making process and discuss the manager’s role in making decisions. Given example of a decision that can be quantified and one that is primarily a qualitative decision. Decision making process involves five steps: 1. Define the problem. 2. Identify the alternative 3. Determine the criteria 4. Evaluate the alternative 5. Choose an alternative Decision-making is important skill for business and life. Decision-making is especially important for management and leadership. There are processes and techniques to improve decision-making and the quality of decisions. Decision-making is more natural to certain personalities, so the managers should focus more on improving the quality of their decisions. Managers that are less natural decision-makers are often able to make quality assessments, but then need to be more decisive in acting upon the assessments made. Good decision-making requires a mixture of skills: creative development and identification of options, clarity of judgment, firmness of decision, and effective implementation. Here are some useful methods for effective decision-making: First a simple step-by-step process for effective decision-making. Today’s managers confront difficult decisions daily and must consider an increasingly wide range...
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...ELECTRONIC SUBMISSION OF AN INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT | “BUSINESS SCHOOL COURSEWORK FEEDBACK SHEET” “ “Student number” | 201210095 | “Date | 03/12/2013 | “Module Title” | Professional skills & ethics | “Assignment Title” | Personal Learning Journal | “Module Code” | 56244 | “Word Count” | 2857 | “Strengths exhibited in the assignment:” | “Click here to enter text.” | “Areas of weakness in the assignment, and ways in which the work could be improved:” | “Click here to enter text.” | “Additional comments:” | “Click here to enter text.” | “First Assessor’s Initials” | “Click here to enter text.” | “Date” | “Click here or from” “the dropdown to” “enter a date.” | “Indicative” “Mark %” | “Click here to enter” “percentage” | “Second Assessor’s Initials” | “Click here to enter text.” | “Date” | “Click here or from” “the dropdown to” “enter a date.” | “(Subject to Module Board Agreement)”“(Before any penalty applied)” | Personal Learning Journal Part A: With the development of globalization, the required of abilities in a team or group is increasing day by day. It is the field where professional skills occurred more and more necessary. So what is the globalization? It is defined that as an appearance during human society’s development. Globalization often refers to the growing worldwide relations, and human life on the basic of global scale development. In other word, it is the rise of global consciousness. (Pieterse J N, 2009) A large amount...
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...Answer 1 a. We have to make a decision, how much space should we lease and for how long. Constraint is the minimum space required. The objective of this function is to minimize b. Decision Variables: Let Xij = the space leased in month (i) for the period of (j) months, for i = 1, 2, …, 5 and j = 1, …, 6. Objective Function: Minimize Z = 65(X11 + X21 + X31 + X41 + X51) + (100X12 + X22 + X32 + X42) + 135(X13 + X23 + X33) +160(X14 + X24) + 190X15 Constraints: X11 + X12 + X13 + X14 + X15 >= 30,000 Month 1 Req. X12 + X13 + X14 + X15 + X21 + X22 + X23 + X24 >= 20,000 Month 2 Req. X13 + X14 + X15 + X22 + X23 + X24 + X31 + X32 + X33 > = 40,000 Month 3 Req. X14 + X15 + X23 + X24 + X32 + X33 + X41 + X42 >= 10,000 Month 4 Req. X15 + X24 + X33 + X42 + X51 >= 50,000 Month 5 Req. Answer 2: b. Decision Variables: Let F1 = Number of full-time consultants working the morning shift (8 AM – 4 PM) Let F2 = Number of full-time consultants working the evening shift (4 PM – 12AM) Let P1 = Number of part-time consultants working the 1st shift (8 AM – 12 PM) Let P2 = Number of part-time consultants working the 2nd shift (12 PM – 4 PM) Let P3 = Number of part-time consultants working the 3rd shift (4 PM – 8 PM) Let P4 = Number of part-time consultants working the 4th shift (8 PM – 12AM) Objective Function: Minimize Z = 14*8* (F1 + F2 ) + 12*4 * (P1 + P2 + P3 + P4 ) Constraints: Minimum number of consultant requirement F1 + P1 >= 4, F1 +...
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...Deciding How to Decide The functions of every manager in an organization is inclined on making the decisions on the organization and finding ways on how to interact with the stakeholders. Decision styles normally addresses on how the manager will be effective in terms of performance. The decision style has the strengths and weakness. Through the decision theory, the manager of the company will be able to understand the character of the employees. The Dimensions of Decision Style How the manager will run an organization through the decisions will be based on the experience that he or she has learned in the course of the management. It involves how the manager processes the information. Even though people have different ways of thinking, research has shown that there is a correlation in terms of thinking and processing of the information. The quantity of the information and complexity of the information is among the key factors that leads to disparity in decision making among the individuals. Also, the size and number of alternatives available after screening the information. The complexity and focus on the solution will depend on the number of alternatives available. The size of the information that is available to the manager is what will be used to determine the outcome of the decision. Too much information on a particular subject can lead to confusion. On the other hand, when less data is provided concerning a particular matter can lead to low or inadequate decision since...
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... | X2 (3000 to 6000) | 5000 | {If the current unit contribution moves outside the range then our decisions would change} | 4) FEASIBILITY RANGE Engine (3500 to 4500) | 4000 | Metal stamp(5000 to 6500) | 6000 | Model 101(4000 to IE+30) | 5000 | Model 102(3000 to IE+30) | 4500 | | {If the current capacity moves outside the range, then the constraint's binding status will change} 5) No, Merton cannot continue to produce with the old optimal mix. They would now have to produce 1000 units of X1 and 1500 units of X2. This will be because of model 101 assembly now functioning only at 40% of its original capacity thus leading to loss of capacity of metal stamping too making it function at only 83.3% of its capacity. Solving by excel, optimal range for obj coeff. For X1 is 2500 -3000, since the contribution changes below 2500, therefore it will have an impact on the decision changing the number of units in the optimal mix. 6) Monthly availability of machine hours came down by 400 hours in metal stamping ie. 5600 hours department. This would not influence the binding status because this decrease is within the feasibility range of 5000 to 6500 hours therefore it continues to function as a...
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...Journal of Hazardous Materials 176 (2010) 1113–1117 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Hazardous Materials journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhazmat Short communication Leaching zinc from spent catalyst: Process optimization using response surface methodology Zhengyong Zhang a,b , Jinhui Peng a,b,∗ , C. Srinivasakannan c , Zebiao Zhang a,b , Libo Zhang a,b , Y. Fernández d , J.A. Menéndez d a Key Laboratory of Unconventional Metallurgy (Kunming University of Science and Technology), Ministry of Education, Kunming 650093, China Faculty of Metallurgical and Energy Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China Chemical Engineering Program, The Petroleum Institute Abu Dhabi, 2533, United Arab Emirates d Instituto Nacional del Carbón, CSIC, Apartado 73, 33080 Oviedo, Spain b c a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t The spent catalyst from vinyl acetate synthesis contains large quantity of zinc. The present study attempts to leach zinc using a mixture of ammonia, ammonium carbonate and water solution, after microwave treatment. The effect of important parameters such as leaching time, liquid/solid ratio and the ammonia concentration was investigated and the process conditions were optimized using surface response methodology (RSM) based on central composite design (CCD). The optimum condition for leaching of zinc from spent catalyst was identified to be a leaching time of 2.50 h, a liquid/solid ratio...
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...DECISION MAKING Roger Corley University of Phoenix MGT 230 Management Theory & Practice Dr. Constance Townsend-Jordan On a daily basis we make hundreds of decisions without blinking an eye. Some of those decisions are usually easier to make than others but all are necessary. It comes a time when we all have to make life altering changes that require extensive research and soul searching. Around June of 2010 I was coming to a point in my life where I had to decide whether or not I was going to reenlist in the military for another term or move on with my life. This had to be by far one of the toughest decisions that I was going to make in my life because I understood the impact such decision was going to have on my families’ future. When I began to gather all the necessary information I had to prioritize what was my bottom line or the things I could not function without. I sat down and wrote a list of all my current expenses and future needs. While going through the process of writing this list I never knew exactly how many things were provided for me as a luxury due to the lifestyle I was living in the military that would be an added burden in the future. I also had to write down my pros and cons for both sides of my choices. All the reasons to separate the military were very clear cut for me and mostly based off of passion and desire. I wanted to be able to spend more time with my children without the fear of always going on deployments or spending so much time...
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...Chapter 2 A company would withhold certain financial information from external parties if the information. I believe that it is unethical for company managers to limit the information available to their internal decision makers. It is unethical 2-54 1. Consistency-The same measurement application methods are used over time. 2. Neutrality - The accounting information is free of bias. 3. Feedback Value-The information provides input to evaluate a previously made decision. 4. Comparability-The information allows the evaluation of one alternative against another alternative. 5. Verifiability -In assessing the information, qualified persons working independently would arrive at similar conclusions. 6. Predictive Value-The information helps reduce the uncertainty of the future. 7. Relevance-The information has a bearing on a particular decision situation. 8. Timeliness-The information is available soon enough to be of value. 9. Reliability-The information is dependable. 10. Representational faithfulness- There must be agreement between what the information says and what really happened. 2-55 1. Data-The raw results of transactions and events. 2. Management Accounting-A branch of accounting developed to meet the information needs of internal decision makers. 3. Information-Data transformed so they are useful n the decision making process. 4. Cash Flow-The movement of cash in and out of a company. ...
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...ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bermaksud untuk mengaplikasikan kontrol optimal dalam model makro ekonomi sehingga diketahui pertumbuhan variabel makro ekonomi yaitu; modal, shadow value of capital dan obligasi dalam jangka waktu tertentu dan jangka panjang dengan konsumsi barang impor dan konsumsi barang domestik sebagai kontrol. Secara khusus penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak perubahan tarif barang konsumsi dan barang investasi dalam jangka waktu tertentu dan jangka panjang terhadap kesejahteraan. Dinamika pelaku ekonomi, diantaranya dinamika produsen, dinamika konsumen dan dinamika dari pemerintah sebagai regulator, masing-masing dinamika pelaku ekonomi ditulis dalam bentuk persamaan kontrol optimal. Persamaan kontrol optimal masing-masing dinamika pelaku ekonomi dapat dinyatakan menjadi satu persamaan kontrol optimal. Untuk mengetahui dampak perubahan tarif barang konsumsi dan barang investasi dilakukan simulasi numerik pada persamaan kontrol optimal dalam jangka waktu tertentu dan jangka panjang. Simulasi dengan perubahan tarif yang sama besar sebesar 50% dan 100% serta perubahan tarif barang investasi dengan tarif barang konsumsi tetap dan perubahan tarif barang konsumsi dengan tarif barang investasi tetap. Dari simulasi yang dilakukan dalam jangka waktu tertentu, menunjukkan bahwa dengan menetapkan titik akhir variabel keadaan yaitu modal dan obligasi akan mengakibatkan turunnya kesejahteraan. Dampak dari peningkatan tarif yang sama besar akan mengakibatkan...
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...meeting demand with high quality products delivered on-time. Analysis, Recommendations, Future The urgent decision to build a gateway without paying adequate attention to information integrity and timeliness is a likely predictor of future disappointments and suboptimal performance at WoodSynergy. An SCM, or any IT system for that matter, is only as good as the information that goes into it, and it was a trigger-happy decision to place standardization and real-time interfacing above information integrity and timeliness. Real-time interfacing with mediocre-quality, relatively antiquated data is not an optimal operation. While initial results seem indisputably positive with over $1.5 million in cost savings, wide spread approval among RDMs, and a significant efficiency increase in order processing time, there is no reference to an analysis of alternatives. An optimal decision would have evaluated the remediation strategy and gateway prototype against a range of other feasible options, specifically against the other mediation approaches. WoodSynergy needs to increase the speed with which it processes orders and makes sound decisions regarding operational efficiency and logistics. This makes networking a more snug fit for the organization than remediation. As stated, WoodSynergy already has a good rapport with its primary suppliers, so the company could leverage these healthy relationships to form new ones, eventually building alliances with new partners in the value...
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