...Problems Ch. 12 Problem 2 2. Given the series of demand data below Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Demand 40 33 56 43 23 45 38 40 29 40 a. Calculate the forecast for periods 7 through 11 using moving average models with n=2, n=4, and n=6 b. Calculate the bias and MAD for each set forecasts. Which moving average model is best? Table for n=2 Period Demand Moving Average for n=2 MFE MAD 1 40 2 33 3 56 4 43 5 23 6 45 7 38 34 4 4 8 40 41.5 -1.5 1.50 9 29 39 -10 10.00 10 40 34.5 5.5 5.50 11 34.5 -2 21.00 Period Demand Moving Average for n=4 MFE MAD 1 40 2 33 3 56 4 43 5 23 6 45 7 38 41.75 -3.75 3.75 8 40 37.25 2.75 2.75 9 29 36.5 -7.5 7.5 10 40 38 2 2 11 36.75 -6.5 16 Table for n= 4 Table for n=6 Period Demand Moving average for n=6 MFE MAD 1 40 2 33 3 56 4 43 5 23 6 45 7 38 40 -2 2 8 40 39.67 0.33 0.33 9 29 40.83 -11.83 11.83 10 40 36.33 3.67 3.67 11 35.83 -9.83 17.83 Which moving average model is best? Table for n=2 is the best option because is the one forecast that has the lower % of error Problem 3 3. If last period’s forecast was 27 and the demand was 30, what was the forecast error? What would be forecast for the next period using an exponential smoothing model with alpha=.5? Dt -Ft = Forecast error Dt=30 Ft=27 Forecast error=30-27= 3 Ft+1 = α dt + (1- α) Ft Ft+1 = (.5) (30) + (1-.5) 27 Ft+1 = 15+...
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...Sonja A. Soehnel, J.D, Liability of operator of grocery store to invitee slipping on spilled liquid or semiliquid substance, 24 A.L.R 4th 696 (1983) § 19[a] No observation of spill by invitee—Contributory negligence In the following cases there was no evidence that the stores were aware of the spillages before the accident occurred thus the court’s held that the customer’s contributory negligence was established. In Romeo v Jumbo Market (1967, 5th Dist) 247 Cal App 2d 817, 56 Cal Rptr 26, the court found in favour of the store when the defendant slipped and fell on a bottle of broken cheeries whilst not paying attend to where she was walking. There was substantial evidence to find contributory negligence on behalf of the customer. In Munoz v Applebaum's Food Market, Inc. (1972) 293 Minn 433, 196 NW2d 921, a customer slipped and fell after walking in a puddle of water which was of such size that is was easy to see and avoid. The court was of the opinion that the defect was obvious and not hidden that the store owner had no duty towards the customer. In H. E. Butt Grocery Co. v Johnson (1949, Tex Civ App) 226 SW2d 501,a customer sustained injuries after slipping and falling due to a spill occurring from a soft drink. The courts finally ruled in favour of the defendant. In Fondell v Lucky Stores, Inc. (1978) 85 Wis 2d 220, 270 NW2d 205, a customer slipped and fell after a bottle of liquid cleaner became broken. Negligence was found on both sides , then the decision...
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...SuperStar Libra Shore Excursion KRABI – THAILAND Apr 2014 – Mar 2015 All tours conducted by English speaking guide. Krabi Highlights with Ao Nang Beach – with meal (RKRB-1CC) Duration: approx. 7 hours (include travelling time) Price: RM$210 per Adult, RM$153 per Child PARTICIPANTS REQUIRED: MIN.25 PAX & MAX. 150 PAX Tarnbokoranee Botanical Garden – it is a large forest nestled in the middle of a mountain, became a National Park on September 30, 1998. At the mouth of the cave is a natural pool. "Sa Thanbok Kharani", where it is possible to swim. The water from this pool swirl over and around rocks and tree roots in a series of shallow tiers in a pleasantly cool and relaxing atmosphere. Lunch to be served at local restaurant. Tiger Cave Temple – this temple, also known as "tiger cave", is 9 km north of Krabi Town. The inside of this cave features tiger prints captured in stone, and is in the middle of lush forest, with enormous, ancient trees. This site is also very significant archaeologically, as many artifacts have been found on the premises, including tools, pottery, and the mold for the Buddha's footprint. Free time and leisure at Krabi town. Free time and leisure at Ao Nang Beach – ambience around Ao Nang is breath-taking with Limestone Mountains. Scenic Phang Nga Bay – with meal (RKRB-2C) Duration: approx. 7 hours (include travelling time) PARTICIPANTS REQUIRED: MIN.25 PAX & MAX.150 PAX Price: RM$240 per Adult, RM$165 per Child Phang Nga Bay National Park –...
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...Company Introduction Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) is an integrated power plant equipment manufacturer and one of the largest engineering and manufacturing companies in India in terms of turnover.{{cn}] Established in 1964, BHEL ushered in the indigenous Heavy Electrical Equipment industry in India. The company has been earning profits continuously since 1971-72and paying dividends since 1976-77 It was founded on 1953. It has its headquarters in New delhi, India. Its chairman and managing director is B.P.Rao. The company has its main product are uninterruptible power supplies, circuit breakers, switch gear, switchboards and motor controllers. It is engaged in the design, engineering, manufacture, construction, testing, commissioning and servicing of a wide range of products and services for the core sectors of the economy, viz. Power, Transmission, Industry, Transportation, Renewable Energy, Oil & Gas and Defence. It has 15 manufacturing divisions, two repair units, four regional offices, eight service centres, eight overseas offices and 15 regional centres and currently operates at more than 150 project sites across India and abroad. Most of its manufacturing units and other entities have been accredited to Quality Management Systems (ISO 9001:2008), Environmental Management Systems (ISO 14001:2004) and Occupational Health & Safety Management Systems (OHSAS 18001:2007). It is the 12th largest power equipment manufacturer in the world. In the year...
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...12/29/2014 Remembering Tsunami 2004: Phuket bounces back from disaster Asia | The Star Online Remembering Tsunami 2004: Phuket bounces back from disaster by stephen fein Just as popular: The Phi Phi Islands were badly devastated by the tsunami waves but recovered very quickly. Koh Phi Phi is pictured above, 10 years on. — Phuket Gazette/The Nation Tourism industry insiders who have monitored trends in the Phuket tourism industry over the past 10 years describe the recovery after the worst natural disaster to ever hit the region as ‘remarkable’. THAI tourism industry icon Wichit Na Ranong, managing director of the luxurious Indigo Pearl resort at Nai Yang Beach in Phuket, says, “I would say we had a very fast recovery after the tsunami. In fact, I think it may be the fastest recovery ever anywhere after a disaster of this kind. I think the industry had almost recovered after two years and was fully back to normal after three, with continuous progress after that.” Asked if there are still fears among tourists of another tsunami, he says, “Not at all. After just a few years, any such fears just faded from people’s minds.” A series of “tourism road shows” abroad and good cooperation among local and national authorities also helped assuage any such concerns, he says. Wichit says that it is still difficult to think back on some of the things he had witnessed after what he describes as a “tragic, tragic event”. Like most people in Phuket, he didn’t even know what a “tsunami”...
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...519.48 2012 Q1 410 539.47 Q2 380 575.76 Q3 600 576.92 Q4 960 623.38 Linear equation of deseasonalized sales: y = 23.799x + 424.17 (Using Excel) y(9) = 638.36; y(10) = 662.16; y(11) = 685.96; y(12) = 709.56 year Quarter Sales Deseasonalized sales forecast Reseasonalized forecast 2013 Q1 350 638.36 485.15 Q2 300 662.16 437.03 Q3 520 685.96 713.40 Q4 800 709.56 1092.72 3-1. Month Forecast A Actual demand e Abs (e) e square Abs (e)*100/A 1 225 200 -25 25 625 12.50 2 220 240 20 20 400 8.33 MAD 24.38 3 285 300 15 15 225 5.00 MSE 659.38 4 290 270 -20 20 400 7.41 MAPE 10.18 5 250 230 -20 20 400 8.70 6 240 260 20 20 400 7.69 7 250 210 -40 40 1600 19.05 8 240 275 35 35 1225 12.73 Sum -15 195 5275 81.40 Month Forecast B Actual demand e Abs (e) e square Abs (e)*100/A 1 210 200 -10 10 100 5.00 2 230 240 10 10 100 4.17 MAD 15.63 3 280 300 20 20 400 6.67 MSE 328.13 4 300 270 -30 30 900 11.11 MAPE 6.3018 5 200 230 30 30 900 13.04 6 250 260 10 10 100 3.85 7 220 210 -10 10 100 4.76 8 270 275 5 5 25 1.82 25 125 2625 50.41 3-2. B is more accurate given the lower values of MAD, MSE, and MAPE. 3-3. Sum of forecasting errors for Method B is 25 while sum of forecasting errors for Method A is -15. This indicates that Method B tends to produce more forecasting errors by underforecasting while Method A tends to produce more forecasting errors by overforecasting, and...
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...Table presenting data and calculations for P-Chart: A B C D E F G H I J 1 Sample n d P P- Bar Z CL UCL LCL 2 1 238 11 0.046 0.078 0.017 -1.842 0 3 -3 3 2 245 18 0.073 0.078 0.017 -0.281 0 3 -3 4 3 270 17 0.063 0.078 0.016 -0.938 0 3 -3 5 4 207 15 0.072 0.078 0.019 -0.313 0 3 -3 6 5 251 11 0.044 0.078 0.017 -2.033 0 3 -3 7 6 254 15 0.059 0.078 0.017 -1.142 0 3 -3 8 7 236 19 0.081 0.078 0.017 0.126 0 3 -3 9 8 245 20 0.082 0.078 0.017 0.194 0 3 -3 10 9 246 35 0.142 0.078 0.017 3.735 0 3 -3 11 10 269 14 0.052 0.078 0.016 -1.603 0 3 -3 12 11 223 7 0.031 0.078 0.018 -2.608 0 3 -3 13 12 246 42 0.171 0.078 0.017 5.397 0 3 -3 14 13 262 14 0.053 0.078 0.017 -1.498 0 3 -3 15 14 258 15 0.058 0.078 0.017 -1.205 0 3 -3 16 15 232 20 0.086 0.078 0.018 0.448 0 3 -3 17 16 219 9 0.041 0.078 0.018 -2.049 0 3 -3 18 17 263 23 0.087 0.078 0.017 0.553 0 3 -3 19 18 244 11 0.045 0.078 0.017 -1.931 0 3 -3 20 19 274 21 0.077 0.078 0.016 -0.102 0 3 -3 21 20 245 37 0.151 0.078 0.017 4.237 0 3 -3 22 21 233 16 0.069 0.078 0.018 -0.547 0 3 -3 23 22 267 18 0.067 0.078 0.016 -0.662 0 3 -3 24 23 254 20 0.079 0.078 0.017 0.026 0 3 -3 25 24 264 16 0.061 0.078 0.017 -1.070 0 3 -3 26 25 253 34 0.134 0.078 0.017 3.321 0 3 -3 27 26 290 22 0.076 0.078 0.016 -0.155 0 3 -3 28 27 231 9 0.039 0.078 0.018 -2.226 0 3 -3 29 28 227 40 0.176 0.078 0.018 5.491 0 3 -3 30 29 234 18 0.077 0.078 0.018 -0.078 0 3 -3 31 30 253 15 0.059 0.078 0.017 -1.126 0 3 -3 32 7433 582 2.353 ...
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...lol 1. imminent 2. capable 3. two 4. head 5. distinct 6. homeless 7. argue 8. swanky 9. perform 10. yielding 11. overrated 12. warlike 13. fly 14. ambiguous 15. interfere 16. attractive 17. search 18. squeak 19. trap 20. wonder 21. stay 22. toy 23. tame 24. man 25. dinosaurs 26. zany 27. big 28. thunder 29. slap 30. dime 31. replace 32. misty 33. moan 34. powerful 35. arrogant 36. hunt 37. tub 38. wasteful 39. land 40. education 41. injure 42. action 43. statement 44. cable 45. draconian 46. near 47. low 48. maid 49. sidewalk 50. stove 51. phone 52. available 53. stain 54. baby 55. overt 56. bent 57. guide 58. nondescript 59. morning 60. gleaming 61. separate 62. enormous 63. enchanted 64. direction 65. grip 66. bathe 67. cart 68. grubby 69. rainy 70. separate 71. crook 72. drown 73. damaging 74. ad hoc 75. berserk 76. best 77. form 78. haunt 79. pricey 80. trains 81. wide-eyed 82. vacation 83. hook 84. groan 85. extra-small 86. pencil 87. faint 88. wax 89. puffy 90. vacuous 91. kill 92. jobless 93. bushes 94. meek 95. circle 96. umbrella 97. bashful 98. move 99. point 100. impolite ...
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...QUALITY LEADERSHIP UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF LOUISVILLE - PANAMA MASTER IN ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT EM 613 OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT GROUP PROYECT “OPTIMIZATION OF HAM PRODUCTION PROCESS IN PROCESSED MEAT INDUSTRY ALIMENTOS CÁRNICOS DE PANAMÁ S.A.” MEMBERS: CRUZ, ESTEFANÍA Id. 8-831-2043 CRUZ, JOSÉ Id. 8-785-79 CHANIS, NICOLE Id. 8-837-172. PALMA, MANUEL Id. 8-845-2054 IBAÑEZ, ROBERTO Id. PE-11-1044 PROFESSOR: JOHN S. USHER, PhD, PE JUNE 19, 2015. 1 INDEX INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................... 3 BUSINESS: ALIMENTOS CÁRNICOS DE PANAMÁ S.A. ....................................................... 3 Processed Meat Business within Grupo Nutresa ......................................................................... 3 Alimentos Cárnicos de Panamá S.A. .......................................................................................... 3 Goals: Process Optimization ....................................................................................................... 4 PROJECT OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................................... 4 General Objectives: ......................................................................................................................... 4 Specific Objectives: ..............................................................................
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...Kristen’s Cookie Co. – Katherine Fanola Individual Assignment Question 1: Draw a Flow Diagram Question 2: How long will it take to fulfill a rush order? The answer is 26 minutes. First, the customer will order which will not take any time. Then, Kristen begins by washing and mixing which will have a cycle time of 6 minutes. Next, spooning will take Kristen 2 minutes, leaving a finish time at 8 minutes (6 min+2min). Then Kristen’s roommate will heat the oven which will take 1 minute leaving a finish time of 9 minutes (8 min+1 min). The cookies will bake for 9 minutes leaving a finish time of 18 minutes (9 min+9 min). Time for the cookies to unload and cool down will then be an additional 5 minutes leaving a finish time of 23 minutes (18 min+5 min). Last step is for customer to pay and for the money to be collecting taking a total of 3 more minutes and leaving a finish time of 26 minutes (23 min + 3 min). Therefore, total time to fulfill a rush order is 26 minutes. Question 3: How many orders can you fulfill in a night, assuming you are open for 4 hours each night? The answer is 22 dozen cookies. Operating for 4 hours in a night is equivalent to operating for 240 minutes. If each order size is one dozen cookies, then order completion time for 1 batch will be 26 minutes. Then, the time for every additional dozen of cookies after that will take 10 minutes. It will take 236 minutes for 22 dozen cookies to be ordered in this case, and it will take 246...
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...Terminus Hotel Budgeted Fixed Cost Theoretical Practical Normal Master‐Budget 10.000.000,00 € 10.000.000,00 € 10.000.000,00 € 10.000.000,00 € Budget Capacity Level (Rooms) 500 495 300 200 Budgeted Fixed Cost per day and room 54,79 € 55,35 € 91,32 € 136,99 € Variable Cost per room and 13,00 € 13,00 € 13,00 € 13,00 € Budgeted Total Cost 67,79 € 68,35 € 104,32 € 149,99 € 1. Pearson Travel asks for its regular booking of 25 rooms per day @ 140€. The Management declined the offer after consultation with the Financial Department. Financial Department is using the Master‐Budget Method for their assesment. As seen in the table above, if the 10M€ is divided by the prevision of 200 rooms and after the addition of the variable costs, the Cost would be higher than the 140€ offer that they have received. After this decission, the forecast for the year will need to be adjusted as the occupancy will be lower now; Master‐Budget 10.000.000,00 € 175 156,56 € 13,00 € 169,56 € 2. Impressa Reisen offered 159€ per day and room and requested 15 rooms per day for the year 2004. Again, management turned down the bid since the calculated cost following the Master‐Budget Method was higher than the offfer. After this decission...
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...阅读高频词汇 List 1 照片n.想象力n.非凡的adj.有活力的adj.讲台，月台n.叙述 讲述 n.adj.露天游乐场n.目标n.v.反馈n.激起,诱发v.不一致adj.连词,结合n.增加 加强n.分配 分发 v.透明的 adj.晋升，提升n.外部的,表面的adj.目标，进球 n.卡路里n.发生率 影响范围n.复制 重复v.乐观的 adj.可能性n.大量，群众n.不足的 稀少的adj. | 1. photograph 2. imagination 3. extraordinary 4. dynamic 5. platform 6. narrative 7. fairground 8. target 9. feedback 10. motivate 11. inconsistent 12. conjunction 13. reinforcement 14. distribute 15. transparent 16. advancement 17. external 18. goal 19. calorie 20. incidence 21. replicate 22. optimistic 23. likelihood 24. multitude 25. scarce | 26. chronic 27. representative 28. pharmaceutical 29. attendance 30. ethical 31. boundary 32. mortality 33. illiterate 34. colleague 35. implication 36. intervention 37. maternal 38. persistent 39. bully 40. physical 41. verbal 42. severity 43. explicit 44. implement 45. substitute 46. campaign 47. permanent 48. offender 49. supervision 50. recognize | 长期的，慢性的adj.典型的 代表n.adj.制药的adj.出席 参加n.道德的,伦理的adj.边界n.死亡率n.不识字的,文盲n.adj.同事n.暗示，可能的影响n.干预,介入n.母亲般的adj.坚持不懈的adj.欺负v.n.身体,生理的adj.与文字相关的adj.严格，严厉，严重n.明确的,详述的 adj.工具 实行 执行n.代替者n.v.战役，运动n.v.永恒的adj.罪犯者，冒犯者n.监督,管理n.认得 辨认出v. | List 2 估计v.修改v.策略 n.占主导，占优势的adj.栖息地n.比例n.欣赏，感激，重视v.破坏v.大多数n.哺乳动物n.退化v.偿还，补偿v.变化 n.描述，代表，阐明 v.创始.n创始的 adj.看的见的adj.危及v.多样n.经济的adj.语言学的adj.双语的adj.生存 v.有助于，导致可替换的adj.觉醒n. | 51. estimate 52. modify 53. strategy 54. dominant...
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...Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management at Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada while R. Dodds is an Associate Professor at the same institution. The authors’ use several of their very own island project works that provide innovative discussion and practical management structures to explore the development role of tourism in relation to the impacts of the environment and their potential overexploitation threats. The authors’ provide eight well-chosen illustrative case studies to focus on innovative discussions regarding issues of sustainability on island tourism destinations, they include sub-jurisdiction islands such as Moose Factory, Canada; Cayos Cochinos, Honduras; St. Kitts; Calvia, Mallorca, Spain; Chumbe, Tanzania; Koh Phi Phi, Thailand; Gili Trawangan, Indonesia; and Sanya, China. The hard-covered book looks very bright appealing, although the photographs inside are black and white, which unfortunately does not catch the reader’s attention, the graphs and diagrams are very illustrative and descriptive which helps the reader understand the context. The book is divided into four parts; Sustainability in island destinations; Challenges to achieving sustainability in island destinations; Successes of achieving sustainability...
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...When I think about greek life I truly think about sisterhood. When I joined the Greek system as a transfer Junior from Baton Rouge, LA, I didn’t realize the kinds of connections and relationships it would open up for me. My name is Taylor Padgett and I am a Delta member of the Delta Sigma Chapter at the University of Mississippi. Starting this year off, joining a sorority was not even on my list of life accomplishments and never even crossed my mind especially at a school known for their prestigious greek life. Only knowing two people upon transferring here I was told that it would be a good idea to join and make friends, but in my mind I didn’t want to “pay for my friends”. A few months into the fall semester I was walking through the grove here on Campus when I saw thousands of girls all wearing blue and pink C.A.R.E walk shirts. Totally disregarded what was going on until I approached a short dark headed girl, Logan Sparks, under a big white tent to ask what was going on ,where she informed me about this new sorority called Alpha Delta Pi that was coming back to campus. I was so overwhelmed by everything that was going on around me I wasn’t able to take it all in. It wasn’t until a day or two later when I was walking to subway on the third floor of our student union when I was approached by another one of our awesome leadership consultants Jessica Johnson. In a calmer area, I was able to really take in what greek life actually was and what Alpha Delta Pi could do for me. It...
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...Linkin Park is an American rock band from Agoura Hills, California. Formed in 1996, the band rose to international fame with their debut album Hybrid Theory, which was certified Diamond by the RIAA in 2005 and multi-platinum in several other countries.[1] Their following studio album Meteora, continued the band's success, topping the Billboard 200 album chart in 2003, and was followed by extensive touring and charity work around the world.[2] In 2003, MTV2 named Linkin Park the sixth-greatest band of the music video era and the third-best of the new millennium.[3] Billboard ranked Linkin Park No. 19 on the Best Artists of the Decade chart.[4] The band was recently voted as the greatest artist of '00s in a Bracket Madness poll on VH1.[5] Having adapted nu metal and rap metal to a radio-friendly yet densely layered style in Hybrid Theory and Meteora,[6][7][8] the band explored other genres in their next studio album Minutes to Midnight (2007).[9][10] The album topped the Billboard charts and had the third-best debut week of any album that year.[11][12] The band continued to explore a wider variation of musical types in their fourth album A Thousand Suns (2010), layering their music with more electronic sounds and beats. Their most recent work Living Things (2012) combines musical elements from all of their previous records. The band has collaborated with several other artists, most notably with rapper Jay-Z in their mashup EP Collision Course, and many others on Reanimation.[7]...
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