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Pigs

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PIGS
España, Grecia, Italia y Portugal

“Crisis económica, austeridad, deuda, Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento”
Enrique Rubio | Irina Santin | Jaume García
Lara Bernabéu | Victoria Machado
9 de Mayo de 2015

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Crisis Económica desde los países periféricos de la Eurozona

“PIGS in Muck” CAUSA

“Hace ocho años, los cerdos llegaron realmente a volar. Sus economías se dispararon después de unirse a la eurozona. Ahora los cerdos están cayendo de nuevo a 9erra”

Tipos de interés

Financian burbujas inmobiliarias

Acceso masivo al crédito

CONSECUENCIA
Crisis
económica

Incer9dumbre sobre financiación

Confianza

MEDIDAS UE
Fondo
de rescate para economías débiles

Inyección de liquidez

Indicadores interrelacionados

q La prima de riesgo q Tipo de interés a los que 9enen que hacer frente para la colocación de la deuda.

q Nota de solvencia por parte de las agencias calificadoras

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Alivio ataques especula9vos

Bajas perspec9v as económicas

as de Altas tas nto mie endeuda balanzas fi sca desequilib les radas

Consecuencias Nega=vas!

q Pérdida soberanía y decisión propia q Imposición de polí9ca económica por parte de las autoridades europeas

Círculo Vicioso

Gobierno: Aporta fondos para rescatar a los bancos

Bancos: Prestaban dinero al gobierno para que

refinancie su deuda

Análisis PIGS: ESPAÑA
Origen de la crisis y sus principales características: q Burbuja inmobiliaria v Precio de la vivienda aumenta del 150% entre 1997 y 2006. v Facilidad de crédito para acceder a compra viviendas v Aumento Deuda de los Hogares

q Deuda Privada q Déficit público q Elevado déficit de la balanza comercial q Estancamiento del crédito a empresas y par9culares Consecuencias: q Estancamiento de la construcción y estallido de la burbuja

q Crisis en9dades financieras

q Desempleo q Morosidad (desahucios)

q Déficit público

q Caída ver9cal del seguro relacionado con la construcción

3

Medidas Adoptadas q Gobierno Socialista: recortes salarios públicos, congelación pensiones y subsidios, subida impuestos... q Gobierno Popular: subida de impuestos, recortes gasto público (sanidad y educación), abaratamiento despido, facilidades para bajar salarios...

Análisis PIGS: PORTUGAL
Origen de la crisis y sus principales características: q Excesivo gasto público

❖ Mala ges9ón de las obras públicas ❖ Inflación de salarios y bonos en el empleo público ❖ Número exorbitante de contrataciones en el sector público q Creciente riesgo de crédito q El crecimiento incontrolado de la deuda pública q Mala ges9ón de los fondos estructurales y de cohesión europeos

Consecuencias: q Coste elevado para la población de Portugal q Aumento del IVA y los impuestos de consumo q Endurecimiento de las reglas del mercado laboral q Endeudamiento Público 93% PIB (160,4 millones €) 4

Análisis PIGS: GRECIA

Origen de la crisis y sus principales características: q Años de gasto incontrolado ( contratación de 100 mil nuevos funcionarios, incrementos salariales) q Crédito barato> Endeudamiento q falta de aplicación de las reformas financieras. q Déficit público 5,0% al 7,7 % del PIB en el 2008

Consecuencias: q Deuda externa neta: 87% de su PIB q Desconfianza de la Unión Monetaria Europea q Pérdida de la compe99vidad. q Posible salida de Grecia de la Eurozona.

5

Análisis PIGS: ITALIA

Origen de la crisis y sus principales características: q Excesos Gasto Público q Evasión de Impuestos q Corrupción q Sistema Laboral que premia a los empleados públicos

Consecuencias: q Déficits por cuenta corriente, tomando prestado del extranjero q La deuda pública volvió a aumentar con la crisis al 120 % sobre el PIB.

q Aumento del paro y necesidad de cambio de la ley “infame” que no permiha despedir sin una

causa grave a empleado de una empresa de más de 15 empleados,

q Empresas con proyección se estancan

q Creación de un 9po de contratos precarios para ocultar descompensación “contratos basura españoles”. 6

EL RESCATE: Indicadores y datos generales
OBJETIVO
ü Liquidez a las economías afectadas ü Prevenir efecto contagio al resto de economías europeas

Un país que experimenta: q Crecimiento acelerado de su endeudamiento público q Aumento de sus niveles de déficit q Economía débil q Incremento de las tasas de interés a pagar en los mercados de la deuda

Requiere fondo de rescate 7

El Rescate: Datos GRECIA e ITALIA

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Inicio Crisis q Elevados niveles de deuda pública (superiores a su PIB anual) q Cuentas públicas poco saneadas q Alto nivel de corrupción polí9ca Fondo Rescate 2010 y 2012: 240 mil millones €

2012: Cuentas públicas del país cerraron con un déficit de 10 puntos . q Nivel de endeudamiento del país fue de 156,9 puntos respecto a su PIB (índice 100) q Incremento de su endeudamiento rela9vo de un 39%, pasando de 112,9 puntos en 2008 a 156,9 en 2012

q Aumento Tasa Paro Grecia (+244,3%)

No rescatada todavía q Muy altos niveles de deuda pública (superiores a 120 puntos)

q Bajas perspec9vas económicas prolongadas desde antes de la crisis q Modelos de gobierno par9culares à favoreció la especulación de los mercados financieros.

Implantación de fuertes medidas de austeridad, sobre todo durante el gobierno tecnócrata de Mario Mon9 (2011-­‐2013):

ü Ha permi9do al país reducir sus niveles de déficit de forma clara en los úl9mos años, desde los 5,4 puntos en 2009 a los 3 en 2012.

q Respecto a su nivel de endeudamiento, éste se ha incrementado en un 19,7%, pasando de 106,1 a 127 puntos entre los años 2008 y 2012. q Aumento Tasa Paro (+68,1)

El Rescate: Datos PORTUGAL y ESPAÑA
Inicio
Crisis q Endeudamiento medio-­‐alto a principios de la crisis (68,4 en 2007) ligeramente superior a lo pactado por el Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento de la UE (60 puntos respecto al PIB del país) q Sistema público corrupto à promovido por el sobregasto y la mala ges9ón polí9ca à Desconfianza Fondo Rescate 2011: Rescate 78 mil millones de € (algo menos de la mitad del PIB del país)

Su nivel de endeudamiento ha pasado de 71,7 puntos en 2008 a 123,6 en 2012,. q Incremento rela9vo de un 72,4%

q Aumento Tasa Paro Portugal (+118,8%)

Inicio Crisis q Burbuja inmobiliaria de gran envergadura Fondo Rescate 2012: 100 mil millones de € (10% del PIB) q Nivel de déficit español se ha ido incrementado, siendo de 10,6 puntos en 2012, el más alto entre los países rescatados y el peor dato de déficit en España desde el principio de la crisis. q Su nivel de deuda pública ha pasado de 40,2 puntos en 2008 a 84,2 en 2012, lo que supone un incremento rela9vo de un 109,5%, el segundo más fuerte dentro del grupo de los países más damnificados por la crisis. q Aumento Tasa Paro España (+76,5%)

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EL RESCATE: Datos Relevantes q El (32,3%) del PIB de la zona euro y un 41,8% de su población pertenece al grupo de países más damnificados por la crisis (PIGS) q El nivel de PIB per cápita de este grupo de países es considerablemente inferior al propio de los países del Norte de Europa.

q Estos países conforman un grupo heterogéneo atendiendo a aspectos socioeconómicos y geográficos.

q Grecia y Portugal presentan una población similar del 3,5%.

q España e Italia 9enen un peso demográfico importante (14,7 y el 18,9%) de la población de la zona euro.

q Todos presentan un PIB per cápita inferior a la media europea (28.500 €). Ø Grecia (17.200 €) y Portugal (15.600 €) las diferencias son muy marcadas Ø Italia (25.700 €) es el país que presenta un valor más próximo a los niveles de convergencia con Europa.

Ø Las diferencias se han ido incrementándose por un doble fenómeno:

• Caída acusada del PIB de estos países

• Incremento, aunque suave, del PIB per cápita europeo

(+1,4% entre 2008 y 2012)

10

PIB
La
revisión de los indicadores económicos de los respec9vos países y la evolución de sus niveles de PIB reflejan un fenómeno marcado, generalizado y con9nuado de contracción económica. La caída del PIB per cápita a lo largo de la crisis presenta diferentes nivele:

Contenido (Italia -­‐2,3; Portugal -­‐3,7%), Moderado (España -­‐5%); y (muy) acusado (Grecia -­‐17,3%).

Sin embargo, es importante la revisión de los datos absolutos para entender la situación extraordinariamente grave que viven países como Grecia y Portugal, en los que la caída de su PIB supone una clara regresión para economías poco cohesionadas socialmente, con niveles de PIB per cápita muy inferiores (menos de la mitad) a los propios de otros países damnificados.

11

Déficit
Condenados
a una "profunda recesión" debido al déficit por cuenta corriente, a la imposibilidad de devaluar la divisa al pertenecer a la eurozona y al endurecimiento de las normas credi9cias por parte del BCE.

12

Deuda Pública

La deuda pública en España en 2014, que fue de 1.033.857 millones de euros, ha crecido 67.676 millones desde 2013. Esta cifra supone que la deuda en 2014 alcanzó el 97,70% del PIB de España.

La deuda pública en Italia en 2014, que fue de 2.134.920 millones de euros, ha crecido 65.079 millones desde 2013. Esta cifra supone que la deuda en 2014 alcanzó el 132,10% del PIB de Italia.

La deuda pública en Portugal en 2014, que fue de 225.280 millones de euros, ha crecido 6.055 millones desde 2013. Esta cifra supone que la deuda en 2014 alcanzó el 130,20% del PIB de Portugal.

La deuda pública en Grecia en 2014, que fue de 317.094 millones de euros, se ha mantenido constante desde 2013.Esta cifra supone que la deuda en 2014 alcanzó el 177,10% del PIB de Grecia. 13

Desempleo

14

Conclusiones
La
austeridad como modelo económico propuesto en Europa para afrontar la crisis.

• Adopción de unos modelos de Estado de Bienestar reducidos y adaptados a sus posibilidades reales.

• Caída del consumo interno

exportaciones

deuda y pobreza.

• Entrada a la UE

convivencia con altos niveles de corrupción polí9ca, bajos niveles de cohesión social, unas propuestas de economías sencillas y poco sólidas, la presencia de fuertes disparidades regionales (en cuanto a nivel de desarrollo económico). • La crisis polí9ca

pérdida de soberanía polí9ca de los gobiernos intervenidos, la cesión de poder a los mercados, la imposibilidad de propuestas alterna9vas y la propia arbitrariedad de una unión de países sin tradición.

15

PIGS: Portugal, Italia, Grecia y España
¡ Muchas gracias por vuestra atención !

16

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...Three Little Pigs: Four Interpretations In these interpretations of the Three Little Pigs, there seems to be some serious thinking outside of the box. My childhood self has been terrorized. The interpretations yield a different outcome for the first two pigs than I remember from years long gone by. I, as a youngster, remember the first two pigs run to their brother’s brick home. The wolf is not killed but runs away with his tail on fire. The three interpretations of the story have the wolf devouring the first two pigs and the third pig kills the wolf. The interpretations have that similarity. The interpretations include the “rife” (DDBA-8005) of the story of the Three Little Pigs. The interpretations also have their views on “tyrants” (DDBA-8005) which the wolf symbolizes. Amdur speaks of the wolf is being the bully that seems to be satisfied by with the kill of the pigs (DDBA-8005). It seems the first two pigs are deemed weak enough to fit the lack of challenge the wolf is accustomed to. Fazio and Ek views the third pig as a “God-fearing” conqueror of the evil wolf (DDBA-8005). The difference is the symbolism of the wolf and the pigs. Gomez symbolizes the story to represent the working class and society. He also deems the third pig could be “the next despot” (DDBA-8005). Amdur’s symbolism seems to be viewed from a criminal drama television show perspective. Fazio and Ek relates to the story from a religious perspective. The research study justifies the action...

Words: 386 - Pages: 2

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Bay of Pigs

...Yesenia Duran Feb. 12, 2015 PSCI 320 Bay of Pigs The chapter begins the correspondence of letters written between John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev. The letters begin with Khrushchev congratulating Kennedy on winning the election, he declares his respect for the United States and that the USSR is prepared to develop a friendly relationship between the two countries. Khrushchev believed that Kennedy will take a soft response on foreign policy and is prepared to take full advantage of the situation. Feeling overwhelmed with his immediate responsibilities Kennedy brushes off Khrushchev first letter with a short response agreeing that everlasting peace is also a focus of the United States and thanking him for his kindness. Kennedy has become aware that Khrushchev has two different sides one that wants and dreams of world peace and another that wants to become extremely powerful. In his second letter to Khrushchev, Kennedy states that although there are many topics that these countries will not be able to agree on the manner in which these topics are approached and handled is of great importance. He also reemphasized the responsibility that rest upon the Unites States and the USSR in world affairs, following this letter everything remains “peaceful.” On April 18th, 1961 Khrushchev writes to Kennedy in response of to the Pay of Pigs invasion in Cuba. Khrushchev is fully aware that the order came from the United States and makes it clear that the USSR will render the necessary...

Words: 459 - Pages: 2