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Prada Case

In: Business and Management

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1. La situación actual en el mercado de los bienes de lujo es positiva. A pesar de la crisis internacional, el mercado no fue muy afectado aunque la tasa de crecimiento anual se redujo de un 2% a un 1% a nivel global. En lo que respecta al mercado Asiático, el mismo crece de manera mucho más rápida que en otras partes del mundo; con especial énfasis en China. En el mercado LATAM pasa a tener mayor relevancia Brasil. Prada se inserta en el mercado de manera significativa desde 19… con la visión de Miucci Prada (nieta del fundador) junto con la de su esposo a cargo de la empresa.

En lo que respecta al futuro del mercado, no se prevén cambios significativos en el mismo. Se espera que el mercado Europeo como el americano siga creciendo (tasa del 4-5% anual por los próximos cinco años) como el Japonés (1-2% por año durante los próximos cinco años). El mayor crecimiento esperado es en Asia (10-11% anual) con especial énfasis en China (15% anual). 2. 3. Los objetivos que tiene en mente la dirección de Prada son el pago de sus obligaciones financieras y la expansión al mercado Asiático (al ser una oportunidad atractiva de crecimiento). Las opciones que analiza son tres: a. Emitir acciones públicas: al igual que como había intentado en diversas oportunidades, Prada puede realizar una IPO (“Initial Public Offer”). Esta opción trae aparejada un aumento en la regulación por parte de entes estatales como una pérdida de control para la familia Prada. Aún cuando las acciones emitidas sean sin derecho a voto, se estaría duplicando el PN de la empresa (1.000.000 de “””USD””” estimados). Además Prada se somete a la incertidumbre de no saber cómo el mercado va a aceptar o no sus acciones. Teniendo en cuenta esto Prada debería someterse a un tedioso proceso de “due diligence” para ser aprobada su operatoria en la bolsa. b. Parthnership Estratégico: Prada podría buscar un grupo inversor que le preste el dinero a cambio de una participación en las ganancias futuras de la misma. A diferencia de la Oferta Pública, no tiene que someterse explícitamente a regulaciones adicionales. Por lo que presenta el caso, en líneas generales el inversor no intenta participar activamente en las operaciones del día a día sino que recompensen su Inversor. Además el CEO de Carrefour mostró interés en invertir en la empresa. c. Deuda: Prada puede financiarse mediante la emisión de deuda. Según muestra la evidencia compañías similares encontraron financiamiento a tasas razonables (LIBOR + 2% aproximadamente, depende el plazo de la financiación) por un plazo de entre 4 y 7 años. Una alternativa que se propuso son los “dim sum bonds” que son bonos emitidos fuera de China pero nominados en la moneda China (yuan). 4. En el pasado Prada intento hacer ofertas públicas pero no fue posible principalmente debido a un mal timing (9/11, caída de LBHI, etc). Estos momentos de crisis traen aparejados un aumento en la volatilidad de las acciones porque los inversores deben aceptar un mayor riesgo implícito. Es decir que el potencial accionista no va a estar dispuesto a pagar cualquier precio sino que va a “exigir” un descuento debido al riesgo que está tomando.

El índice VIX mide como se siente el mercado; si el mercado es pesimista y tiene miedo, el VIX va a ser alto. Esto tiene especial correlación con momentos de crisis. En cambio si el mercado esta alegre y confiado, el VIX va a ser bajo. En el 9/11 el índice VIX se duplico lo que tiene correlación con una caída muy grande del S&P 500 esa misma semana. Ya en el mes de Octubre el VIX empezó a bajar mientras que el S&P500 lo acompaño con una suba. Debido a la gran volatilidad que afecta el mercado en determinados periodos es de suma importancia el timing. En un momento donde el mercado esta convulsionado no va a estar receptivo hacia una nueva acción, que desplomaría apenas salga al mercado y quizás nunca repunte a su valor de OPI. 5. Prada evalúa como potenciales mercados donde hacer una OPI los siguientes mercados: d. Hong Kong: en el 2011 fue el predilecto a la hora de realizar OPIs (20% de las OPI se realizaron en esa plaza). Además se comentaba que podía tener una valuación mayor a la que tendría en una plaza Europea. Una desventaja que trae esta plaza son las tasas altas para operar en el mercado, que desalienta a Inversores Institucionales. Además tiene como inconveniente que generaría problemas impositivos para los tenedores Italianos. i. Para solucionar el inconveniente anterior se propuso hacer un “Cross-Listing” tanto en Milán como en Hong Kong. La principal ventaja del cross-listing es que al estar en distintas zonas horarias le daría a la acción mayor liquidez y le daría a Prada mayor facilidad para obtener fondos. Además solucionaría los inconvenientes impositivos. e. Emisión primaria en Milán y depósito en Hong Kong: otra opción evaluada es realizar una emisión en Milán y un “cross-listing” en Hong Kong (HKDR). Sí bien no se espera que mediante el HKDR se recaude mucho dinero, la dirección de Prada piensa que ayudaría a las negociaciones de ventas en China (ex. Vale en China).

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