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Predictive Analysis Of Basketball

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A number of friends asked me to use my predictive analytics knowledge to predict the outcome of the World Series this week. As I write this, Kansas City has tied the series at three games apiece—who will win Game 7? It is probably best that I withhold my analysis until after the game. It turns out we’re not very good at predicting sports outcomes. But why? Let me start with basketball, which also is opening its season this week.

Looking back to the NCAA Final Four basketball tournament of 2014, analytics professionals like myself were confidently predicting the Florida Gators would easily win another national title. The primary measures correlated with winning basketball games—effective field goal percentage margin, turnover margin, rebounding

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