A Decision of Uncertainty Paper
Elmer Smith
QNT 561
June 3, 2011

Robert Coindence

A Decision of Uncertainty Paper In the business world, statistics is used more often than what people know. Whether it’s to analyze data or find a solution to gathered data, statistics plays a major role in the life of many businesses. For this paper, the author has been asked to research statistical data in a business context that requires a decision. Being in the biotechnology industry, statistics is used every day to analyze the data gathered to ensure that the efficacy of a particular component is providing the desired result. The author of this paper will take the reader through the decisions made in the industry every day by the sponsor or pharmaceutical company sponsoring the investigations product. While the sponsor analysis their data, from a team management point of view, the author must determine the number of sites required to achieve the desired results. It is here were statistics and probability comes into place. In order to determine and try to achieve the desired results within the population allowed, the author must determine the number of sites required in order to achieve the desired results. In Phase II, since the sample size is small, the number of sites is determined based on the number of sites needed. For example, past history shows that in order to enroll 95 subjects, 26 sites must be selected. This is based on achieving the desired results 44% of the time. A decision must be made to determine whether or not the author should contract the same number of sites or determine if a different number of sites will be needed. If the desired results are achieved 44% of the time based on past experiences, then in order to achieve a greater success rate, the author will use probability to