Premium Essay

Quantitative Anlysis

In: Business and Management

Submitted By xuezhongjie111
Words 1496
Pages 6
Question 1
(a)
rc, t is the increase rate of real US private consumption. re, t is the real return of the share price index of the New York Stock Exchange after CPI adjustment. rf, t is the real return of the Long-term government bond yield after CPI adjustment.

(b)

The plotting graph indicated that there is no obvious trend of the increase rate of real US private consumption. The rate reached its lowest point in 1974.

There is no clear trend of real return of the share price index of the New York Stock Exchange after CPI adjustment. It is worth to notice that it reached its lowest return in 1974 too, which is about -0.38.

The graph of the real return of the Long-term government bond yield after CPI adjustment is different from the above two: before 1980, the return was mainly below 0.02 and reached its lowest return in 1974. After 1980 there was a dramatic rise of the return until 1985. Then it decreased a little and fluctuated around 0.04.

Question 2
(a)

From the above table we can obtain the Standard Deviation of rc, t equals 0.017232. This is the Std. Dev. estimation with degree of freedom adjustment. In order to get the variance without any degree of freedom adjustment, the equation below must be used to make the adjustment:
Var (y without degree of freedom) = T-1T *S2y Thus the variance of rc, t can be calculated: δ2c =35-135 *0.0172322 =0.000288
The variance of the increase rate of real US private consumption is about 0.000288. It measures the squared deviation of rc, t from its expected mean of 0.034093
(b)

From the above table we can obtain the Standard Deviation of re, t equals 0.132217.
This is the Std. Dev. estimation with degree of freedom adjustment. In order to get the variance without any degree of freedom adjustment, the equation below must be used to make the adjustment:
Var (y without degree of freedom) = T-1T

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