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Radio One

In: Business and Management

Submitted By lindaloyola
Words 739
Pages 3
1) ¿Por qué Radio One desea adquirir las 12 estaciones de Clear Channel Communications que están rankeadas entre las 50 mejores además de las nueve estaciones en Charlotte, NC, Augusta, GA, e Indianápolis, ID? ¿Cuáles son los beneficios y riesgos? El adquirir estas emisoras le permitiría a Radio One tener un crecimiento del grupo a más del doble de su tamaño y consolidar su posición a nivel nacional.

Beneficios: * Mayor cobertura a nivel nacional, llegando a más hogares afroamericanos que ningún otro medio de comunicación dirigido a ese público, captando más oyentes afroamericanos que ningún otro emisor de radio (se preveía crecimiento de su población y de sus ingresos). * Mayores ingresos por publicidad * Constituir la base para su expansión hacia otro tipo de medios de comunicación (televisión por cable, industria discográfica, internet). * Reducción de costos y aprovechamiento de las capacidades existentes gracias a la economía de escala.

Riesgos: * Mayor endeudamiento para gastos de inversión que reflejaría en mayores gastos financieros, que indicaría un crecimiento solventado por las deudas. * Dificultades para lograr una integración a nivel organizacional por la adquisición de 21 emisoras en forma conjunta. * Inexperiencia en el desarrollo de negocios de otros medios de comunicación.

2) ¿Qué precio debería ofrecer Radio One basado en un análisis de flujo de caja descontado? ¿son razonables las proyecciones del flujo de caja?

¿Cómo se calculan los flujos de efectivo?
a. Los gastos corporativos asumidos para el mercado potencial es 51% valor determinado en función a las ventas.
b. Capital de Trabajo considerado es el 25% de los ingresos netos, relación que presenta el año 1998.
c. Las nuevas inversiones de capital necesarias cada año generarán gastos por depreciación adicionales más allá de los 90 millones. Se considera que estos activos tomaran una depreciación por 15 años.
d. Para el valor actual, se toma una tasa de crecimiento del 5%.
f. El ke considerado es 10% y la kd es 7.13%.

Finalmente luego de descontar los flujos económicos al wacc el valor para la compra del negocio potencial es de $ 1,315 mil millones.

3) ¿Qué precio debería ofrecer Radio One basado en un análisis de múltiplos?

Análisis de múltiplos- FCE
Consideraremos el FCE de los nuevos negocios del año 2001:

Valor de venta = 18.1 x $76,436 = $1’383,492 mil

Análisis de múltiplos – EBITDA
Calcularemos el EBITDA de los nuevos negocios del siguiente modo:
FCE = $76,436
Gasto corporativo = ($3,529)
EBITDA = $72,907

Valor de venta = 19.4 x $72,907 = $1’414,394 mil

4) Asumiendo que el precio de las acciones de Radio One es 30X BCF, ¿se puede ofrecer como mucho 30X BCF por las nuevas estaciones?

Si consideramos el pago de 30X sería: 30 x $76,436 = $2’293,080
Si bien es cierto, ROI obtendrá beneficios adicionales por la experiencia que tiene en el mercado de las radio y difusión, los importes calculados en el análisis de Flujo de Caja descontado y el de múltiplos nos una idea de los importes máximos a cancelar por estas emisoras.
Respecto al precio máximo a ofrecer se verá con detalle en la siguiente pregunta.

5) ¿Qué debería ofrecer Radio One por las nuevas estaciones?

Se sabe que: * Infinity Broadcasting habría pagado 1,400 millones por 18 emisoras equivalente a 21,5 veces el FCE, entonces el valor promedio de cada emisora sería: * 1,400 / 18 = 78 millones * Cox Radio había pagado 380 millones por 7 emisoras equivalente a 18,4 veces el FCE, entonces el valor promedio de cada emisora sería: * 380 / 7 = 54 millones

Asimismo, los cálculos efectuados en los análisis de flujo de caja descontado y de múltiplos no te tomaron en cuenta factores como la reducción de costos ó crecimiento en ventas debido a la sinergia, dada la experiencia de Radio One.

Ahora ROI aspiraba a adquirir 12 emisoras de Clear Channel (de calidad similar a las adquiridas por Infinitiy Broadcasting) y 9 emisoras adicionales, por lo que inicialmente debería iniciar la valoración con el método de flujo de caja descontado y un máximo valor calculado del promedio de los FCE de ambos para el año 2001.

* Mínimo valor = $1,315 millones (flujo de caja descontado) * Máximo valor = $ (21,5 + 18,4)/2 x 76,436 = $ 1,525 millones

Pero ROI tiene la posibilidad de pagar hasta un múltiplo FCE de 30, por lo que al final podría acceder a comprar las 21 emisoras al precio de 30 x 76,436 = $ 2,293 millones.

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