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Ravinder

In: Other Topics

Submitted By vamsiprapul1066
Words 2867
Pages 12
3 August 2011
2QCY11 Results Update | Sector: FMCG

GlaxoSmithKline Consumer
BSE SENSEX

17,941
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)

S&P CNX

5,405

CMP:INR2,411

TP:INR2,300

Neutral

SKB IN
42.1
2,525/1,739
2/26/37
101.5
2.3

Glaxo Smithkline Consumer Healthcare's (SKB) 2QCY11 adjusted PAT grew 15% YoY to INR825m (against our estimate of INR873m). Net sales grew ~22%, led by 16% volume growth. Biscuit volumes grew 49% and exports grew 57%. Input cost pressure drove a 300bp decline in gross margins and 34% higher ad spend led to a 150bp decline in EBITDA margins of 15.1%. SKB increased MFD prices by an average of 2.3% in July to recover some of the lost margins.
Foodles grew just 13% (22% in 1HCY11). GSK launched Horlicks Gold at a 30% premium to the base Horlicks variant.
New launches yet to make significant impact; Valuations rich for a single category business; Downgrade to
Neutral
We believe SKB is well placed to capture healthy growth in the MFD space and a strong rebound from 1QCY11 is testament to that. However, with competitive intensity increasing in this segment, SKB will have to continue to spend aggressively, which may reduce the frequency of new product introductions. Margin pressures are likely to persist and though we do not expect a severe gross margin contraction to continue, firm input costs and a changing product mix
(rising share of low margin non-MFD) will restrict meaningful margin expansion in future. We are revising our estimates downwards by 1-2% to factor in lower margins and lower sales growth in Foodles and Nutribar. Our CY11 MFD volume growth estimates are revised from 10.5% to 11%. Limited success of new product launches (failure of Chilled Dood,
Nutribar and Horlicks Asha and moderating growth in Foodles) and margin pressure...

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