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Risk Management System

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ADAPTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (ARMS) FOR CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION

Mihaela Ulieru and Paul Worthington
Emergent Information Systems Laboratory
The University of Calgary
Ulieru@ucalgary.ca
http://www.enel.ucalgary.ca/People/Ulieru/

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to develop an adaptive risk management framework capable to prevent, identify and respond in critical time to threats. Our focus is on protecting critical infrastructure (e.g. public utilities) which vitally depends on network and information security. As solution we propose a holonic Cybersecurity system that unfolds into an emergency response management infrastructure capable to react in due time to unknown and new kinds of attacks/threats. The system can adapt to its changing environment through its self-organizing capability. Mimicking the way immunity works in biological organisms the system can dynamically adapt to embrace new risk situations and can dynamically create and learn new risk models as it encounters new risk situations.

Keywords. Risk management, holonic, self-organization, multi-agent systems.

1. Rationale

During the emergency response to the September 11, 2001 attack on the World Trade Centre, emergency response commanders on the scene were unable to communicate to ‘911’ Public Service Access Points (PSAP) that people should evacuate the building. As a result, PSAP operators complied with New York City’s standard operating procedure for hi-rise fires and advised callers to stay in impacted buildings [41]. The ‘911’ system was inadequate for handling a major disaster and could not adapt to the emergency. The final death toll 2,749 may have been substantially reduced if the PSAP’s were adaptive in coping with the overload.

Commanders trying to evacuate fire fighters from the north tower during the World Trade Centre disaster were seriously hampered

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