Free Essay

Role of Scenarios in Strategic Forecasting

In: Business and Management

Submitted By vaiela32
Words 3159
Pages 13
The role of scenarios in strategic foresight”
Article Summary
In the context of the global financial crisis and the turbulence that this has brought to the world economy and therefore to organisations, the article “The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” by Gill Ringland published in the journal Technological Forecasting & Social change volume 77 (9) aims to persuade the reader on the need for strategic foresight over the next decade and what role scenarios can play within strategy foresight activities in organisations (Ringland, 2010). The author predicts that organisations in the west will experience a period of great change and that they are mostly ill-prepared to deal with the rate or the enormity of this change. Ringland believes that conventional business planning will need to change and suggests the need to develop a systematic review of organisational practices that will lead to strategic foresight. This will ensure that organisations are in a position to cope and survive changes in their external environment.
Ringland begins by pointing out that the current position of the world economy shows that business and government have a significant debt burden that will take years to pay back especially in the west. In an environment of unemployment, reduced consumer spending and debt repayment, wealthy nations will recover slower than developing nations. There is also a shift in international competitiveness due to changes in labour skills and costs as well as technological advances. Added to this are pressures of environmental change, international law and the ability to access raw materials. Businesses in the west will need to weather a power rebalance from emerging businesses in developing economies by developing strategic foresight that is constantly updated.
Strategic foresight for businesses comprises of a high-quality forward view that can detect adverse conditions and explore new markets. This view needs to encompass the nature of the organisation along with values, market awareness and assets. An organisation that is successful in the development of these processes is known as a “PS-RO – a purposeful, self-renewing organisation” (Ringland, 2010).
A ‘PS-RO’ organisation has a developed plan for cost reduction, competitiveness and change using well developed qualities of insight, values, narrative, option generation as well as people and processes.
Scenarios are one way to develop strategic foresight as they provide analysis, communication and education to show the possibilities before the company, meaning ideas can be explored and can act as a catalyst for improvement and change. Scenarios provide intelligence, new options and debate up to the point of decision. The author stresses that scenarios are not forecasts, but possible futures that lie ahead.
Ringland suggests that scenarios can have a key role in the development of strategic foresight as mental models and setting the context for futures thinking (Ringland, 2010).
The author describes that scenarios as mental models can assist in strategic foresight by helping to understand complex systems, allowing for debate and use as a prompt for senior management discussions. These can also shape and create images external to the organisation and by focusing on the future they can provide a set of potential worlds which can be used to explore options and drive innovation.
Ringland asserts that scenario methodology can set the context for thinking about the future which can lead to inputs in the actual development of strategic plans. The author discusses three business case studies on the use of scenario methodology. The author concludes that organisations need strategic foresight in order to survive and in the process of developing scenarios, companies can reap the benefits of new ideas, innovation and a change in culture and opportunities.

Article Discussion and Analysis
In order to survive and renew organisations must detect the weak signals of looming opportunities and threats as early as possible and try to integrate these into strategic planning. It makes sense that organisations don’t focus and look for a single vision of the future that matches their expectations, but instead try to acquire multiple views of the future which depict various opportunities or even threats (Varum & Melo, 2010).
Traditional strategic planning and forecasting techniques lean towards inflexibility and largely fail to predict significant changes in markets or industries, especially in very dynamic business environments. The traditional planning process is by in large greeted with groans as it tends to focus on the plan itself. It is mechanical and the emphasis is not on the thinking and exploration of the future, but rather on the now or the very short term, whereas focus should be on building strategic thinking capacity. Anecdotally traditional plans focus on the forecasting for the short term, and as a result these tend to miss impending opportunities and threats which may have a significant bearing on the viability of the organisation.
Ringland discusses the volatility and turbulence of the global economy for the future as an consequence of the global financial crisis particularly in western economies, which on a quick scan of the business news shows it to be a very real challenge for organisations (BBC News, 2013; Lawrie, 2013; Walker, 2013; Wood, 2012) combined with tough business and economic conditions (Freytas-Tamura, 2012; Ryan, 2013). This turbulent business environment validates Ringland’s call for the need to augment traditional planning methods with strategic foresight to allow a forward view to develop in organisations.
Consequently the recognition of future trends and anticipation of market changes by organisations become factors in its overall competitive advantage. This capability in organisations is vital for dealing with uncertainty, adapting innovatively and rapidly to major changes, taking advantage of unforeseen opportunities and having a competitive advantage in a volatile economy (Varum & Melo, 2010). In Ringland’s article the need to progress and build an organisation’s strategic foresight is paramount in order to not only survive, but renew in the coming turbulent business environment (Ringland, 2010). However, as Ringland tacitly implies strategic foresight is not the norm because perhaps as people in organisations we indirectly expect that there will always be future continuity, we tend to hold unchallenged assumptions about the way we see the world and we don’t view systems and processes as a whole.
Strategic foresight is the ability to create and maintain a superior, articulate and functional forward view in organisations (Ringland, 2010). It is used to designate the activities and processes that assist management in the task of mapping a company’s future course of action. In strategic foresight the main goal is to promptly select drivers of change in the company’s external environment (Vecchiato, 2012). Strategic foresight in a corporate environment is further concerned with reducing the sphere of the unknown and helping to account for uncertainty in the decision-making process (Rohrbeck & Heger, 2012). Strategic foresight also gives the opportunity for mobilisation across all levels of an organisation, by allowing common deliberation of future issues within the organisation (Bootz, 2010).
In order to develop strategic foresight, several methods have been developed and Ringland focuses on scenarios. Scenarios as tools to assist with strategic foresight have the potential to give organisations different ways which to manage emergent uncertainties (Chermack, 2005) and can be used to develop robust organisational strategies.
The term was first introduced by Herman Kahn in the 1950s in association with military and strategic studies that were being conducted by the Rand Corporation. From there, as corporate planning become more multifaceted and sophisticated, scenarios were seen as a tool to assist with this increased complexity (Chermack, 2005; Mietzner & Reger, 2005). Since then scenarios have been widely used by organisations across industries given their value as a tool for analysing and gaining an understanding of key uncertainties in the external business environment (Mietzner & Reger, 2005; Vecchiato, 2012). These have also been used at national, regional and local levels by governments as a policy analysis tool to describe possible sets of future conditions (Stratigea & Giaoutzi, 2012). One organisation that introduced scenario planning early on was Royal Dutch Shell and its scenario development is seen as a benchmark for corporate scenario planning (Shell Global, n.d).
A scenario can be thought of as a ‘story’ that illustrates ideas of possible futures or aspects of a possible future. Scenarios are not predictions about the future but can be seen as mock-ups of possible futures and are generally viewed in periods of ten years or more. Traditional planning is characterised with attempts at predicting (forecasting) the one future as accurately as possible. However the strength of scenarios is that they do not describe just one future, but several possible or desirable futures that are then placed side by side, where there can be a potential selection of the best outcomes whilst circumventing pitfalls (Mietzner & Reger, 2005; Postma, Broekhuizen, & Van den Bosch, 2012; Varum & Melo, 2010).
Scenarios are descriptions of journeys to possible futures, and these reflect different assumptions about how current trends will unfold, how critical uncertainties will play out and what new factors will come into play (Postma et al., 2012). Scenarios can be used as a tool to explore and to assist with decision making as they highlight the gaps in the possible future from the present and reveal the choices available and their potential consequences. Ringland emphasises that the concept of scenarios as visions of possible futures is crucial because scenario development if not properly understood can quickly descend into forecasting the future rather than creating multiple visions of the future.
The scenario creation process follows systematic and recognisable steps, generally in four stages: defining scope, database construction, building scenarios and choosing strategic options (Mietzner & Reger, 2005). The process starts by making clear the decisions required to be made, thoroughly challenging the mental maps that shape perceptions, and tracking and collecting information from numerous sources. Analysis is then needed to identify driving forces, predetermined elements and vital uncertainties which will lead to the development of carefully composed plots representing a plausible alternative future. Then deeper analysis of the structure, systems and underlying logic behind the scenarios stories is developed to help explain these and reveal any crucial differences. Finally, the key events or turning points, which would channel the future towards one scenario rather than another, are identified (Mietzner & Reger, 2005).
In the article the author reasons that the scenario methodology itself as described above can assist organisations with not only setting a context for thinking about the future but also assist with current planning (Ringland, 2010). This is because the use of scenario techniques and methodology provides an opportunity to open up the minds of people in organisations to previously unimaginable possibilities and challenge the internal beliefs of an organisation. Scenario methodology can compel managers to rethink the logic and assumptions on which current and past strategy has been founded.
The development of scenarios means challenging the norms and expectations that are taken for granted about the organisation and the environment it operates in. Re-perceiving the organisation and its environment is a main characteristic of scenarios where participants have to question their basic assumptions of the world and alter their mental models (Mietzner & Reger, 2005). Mental models are deeply held assumptions that shape how we understand the world around us. Generally mentals models are in our subconscious and we aren’t fully aware of how these influence our day to day behaviour (Chermack, 2005).
In the article Ringland argues that scenarios can be used as mental models, however mental models are ingrained with pre-existing schemas and world views which can be hard to overcome especially if these have worked well in the past (Rohrbeck, 2012). It is clear that if scenarios are to be used as mental models then rigorous challenge must be applied to pre-existing mental models so that alternative futures can be identified with the scenarios.
Scenarios are suitable tools in which to recognise 'weak signals' of potential change, technological discontinuities or disruptive events and give the ability to organisations of including these in long range planning. This then leads to the organisation being better prepared to handle new situations rather than knee jerk planning decisions. Scenarios can also function beyond the planning aspect by improving communication both internally and externally by leading to the creation of a common language for dealing with strategic issues and by opening strategic conversations within an organisation (Mietzner & Reger, 2005).
Ringland does emphasise the positive role of scenarios in strategic foresight, however scenarios are not without problems, in particular the time consuming nature of its development and the considerable preparation required especially in data and information collection. Careful selection of suitable participants is also essential as there is a need for participants to have a deep understanding and knowledge regarding the subject to be explored in order for meaningful discussion to occur (Postma et al., 2012).
Strategic foresight in the article is seen as positive and valuable; nevertheless it can be questioned as to whether there is value creation from strategic foresight itself. Given the high cost of running strategic foresight activities for example scenario analysis, it is imperative that foresight activities are designed with committed individuals, that there is a high level of communication and participation internally in the organisation, and that the expected value contribution is defined up-front (Rohrbeck, 2012). This will allow for strategic foresight to identify relevant change, trigger and challenge innovation and contribute to overcoming dominant mental maps, which leads to a more robust organisation when dealing with change and uncertainty.

Practical Implications
In all organisations, managers are faced with three central questions when thinking about the future of their organisation: what is our present situation, where do we need to go from here and how do we get there (Thompson, Peteraf, Gamble, & Strickland, 2012)?
Managers first need to evaluate the current position, not only in terms of the industry it is in, but its own organisational performance, strengths and weaknesses. The question of ‘where do we need to go from here’ drives managers to make choices about where the organisation should be headed, and the ‘how do we get there’ challenges them to craft and execute a strategy which is capable of moving the organisation in the intended direction where it will grow its business and improve its financial and market performance (Thompson et al., 2012).
However from a manager’s point of view, complexity and uncertainty are key issues that arise whenever any exploration or strategy development occurs for the future, as the future can be vague with only weak signals being present to indicate where industries are moving to. Foresight activities can aid organisations by giving the ability to explore and think about the uncertain future and stimulate creative thinking before the future happens.
The overall purpose of scenario building is to assist in considering what possible futures might look like, how they might come about and why this might happen. These articulated possibilities of futures then force new decisions as fresh considerations surface and reframe existing decisions, by providing a new setting to re-examine existing decisions. Scenario building also identifies contingent decisions by exploring what an organisation might do if certain circumstances arise from the future possibilities.
Strategic foresight and its many tools can be employed to make better long term decisions, support product and organisational innovation, identify alternative courses of actions and assist with deciphering the weak signals of emerging technology (Rohrbeck & Heger, 2012). In turn this will assist organisations to answer the key central questions in strategy of what is our present situation, where do we need to go from here and how do we get there in order to thrive and succeed in any business environment.
Given that the future is inherently uncertain it is after all the future, any organisation that has developed the capability to understand and build a view of what possible futures may look like, is surely better prepared to adapt and thrive in whatever future may be coming around the corner. References (APA 6th)
BBC News. (2013, April 25). Eurozone in crisis in graphics, BBC News. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13359367
Bootz, J-P. (2010). Strategic foresight and organizational learning: a survey and critical analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(9), 1588-1594. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.015
Chermack, T. J. (2005). Studying scenario planning: theory, research suggestions, and hypotheses. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(1), 59-73. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.003
Freytas-Tamura, Kimiko. (2012, August 16). Global recovery: who can drive the recovery?, BBC News. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18815595
Lawrie, Eleanor. (2013, August 16). Market uncertainty as fear of QE tapering intensifies, FT Adviser. Retrieved from http://www.ftadviser.com/2013/08/16/investments/economic-indicators/market-uncertainty-as-fear-of-qe-tapering-intensifies-uCDH8BnS9K3D68ZtIaKd0J/article.html
Mietzner, D., & Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 1(2), 220-239. Retrieved from http://wohlstandfueralle.com/documents/StragegicForesight.pdf
Postma, T. J. B. M., Broekhuizen, T. L. J., & Van den Bosch, F. (2012). The contribution of scenario analysis to the front-end of new product development. Futures, 44(6), 642-654. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2012.02.001
Ringland, G. (2010). The role of scenarios in strategic foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(9), 1493-1498. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.010
Rohrbeck, R. (2012). Exploring value creation from corporate-foresight activities. Futures 44(5), 440-452. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2012.03.006
Rohrbeck, R., & Heger, T. (2012). Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new business fields. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(5), 819-831. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.11.003
Ryan, Philip. (2013, July 31). Why economic and currency volatility present double trouble for emerging market investors, FT Adviser. Retrieved from http://www.ftadviser.com/2013/07/31/investments/economic-indicators/why-economic-and-currency-volatility-present-double-trouble-for-emerging-market-investors-sKMLfjlr9clD30Qz0b4OII/article.html
Shell Global. (n.d.). Shell Scenarios – Shell Global. Retrieved from http://www.shell.com/global/future-energy/scenarios.html
Stratigea, A., & Giaoutzi, M. (2012). Linking global to regional scenarios in foresight. Futures, 44(10), 847-859. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2012.09.003
Thompson, Arthur A. , Peteraf, Margaret Ann , Gamble, John , & Strickland, A. J. . (2012). Crafting and executing strategy: the quest for competitive advantage : concepts and cases. New York NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin.
Varum, C. A., & Melo, C. (2010). Directions in scenario planning literature – a review of the past decades. Futures, 42(4), 355-369. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.021
Vecchiato, R. (2012). Strategic foresight: matching environmental uncertainty. Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, 24(8), 783-796. doi: 10.1080/09537325.2012.715487
Walker, Andrew. (2013, August 14). The eurozone is growing again, but don't pop any corks yet, BBC News. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23692107
Wood, Jonathan. (2012, October 23). The young and the restless, BBC News. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19997182

Similar Documents

Premium Essay

Normality of the Future: Trend Diagnosis for Strategic Foresight (Liebl 2010)

...Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight (Liebl 2010) Table of contents 1. Summary of the article 3 2. Analysis of the strength and weakness of the argument 5 2.1 Strengths 5 2.2 Weakness 6 3. Implications for the top management 7 4. Conclusion 8 Appendix A 10 Appendix B 11 1. Summary of the article “In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things” (Musashi 2009). * This article focuses on trend diagnosis for strategic foresight in its entirety. The author scrutinizes that although trend is an imperative concept in the strategic issue management, the interpretation of trend in strategic foresight is ambiguous. This paper conceptualizes, from a strategic point of view, trend as an innovation (socio-cultural) and elaborate the implications with respect to strategic issue diagnosis. (Liebl 2010) * * * * * The figure above (Liebl 2010) depicts an elaborate framework for conceptualizing trends. The strategic trend diagnosis has to deal with two different aspects of innovation: invention and diffusion. The invention aspect of a trend is identifying “The New” results from a transgression of contextual boundaries whereas the diffusion is a process of normalization (Normality and Abnormality) – i.e., a new socio-cultural practice becomes a social convention and...

Words: 1427 - Pages: 6

Premium Essay

Pest Analysys

... assessment, research, education, conservation and sustainable use of resources, is now accepted as a major guiding factor for sustainable development at the regional and national level. It is now being increasingly recognized that environmental factors and ecological imperatives must be in built to the total planning process if the longterm goal of making industrial development sustainable is to be achieved. Here we will try to define and discuss the role of Environmental Analysis in the strategic management process of organization. The present complex world require as far as is feasible, it consider impact of important factors related to organizations in strategic planning. The strategic planning of business includes all functional subdivisions and forwards them in a united direction. One of these subsystems is human resource management. Strategic human resource management comes after the strategic planning, and followed by strategic human resource planning as a major activity in all the industries. In strategic planning, it can use...

Words: 4114 - Pages: 17

Premium Essay

Internal Auditor

... assessment, research, education, conservation and sustainable use of resources, is now accepted as a major guiding factor for sustainable development at the regional and national level. It is now being increasingly recognized that environmental factors and ecological imperatives must be in built to the total planning process if the longterm goal of making industrial development sustainable is to be achieved. Here we will try to define and discuss the role of Environmental Analysis in the strategic management process of organization. The present complex world require as far as is feasible, it consider impact of important factors related to organizations in strategic planning. The strategic planning of business includes all functional subdivisions and forwards them in a united direction. One of these subsystems is human resource management. Strategic human resource management comes after the strategic planning, and followed by strategic human resource planning as a major activity in all the industries. In strategic planning, it can use...

Words: 4114 - Pages: 17

Premium Essay

Masters

...differences, belief in personal relevance , and an escalation of commitment, influence what choices people make. Understanding the factors that influence decision making process is important to understanding what decisions are made. That is, the factors that influence the process may impact the outcomes. The factors affecting the strategic decision-making in particular the different stages and process can be classified into four major categories. 1. Decision-specific characteristics, 2. Internal organizational characteristics, 3. External environmental characteristics, and 4. Management team's characteristics. 2. Explain how managers use data-based decision making. Ans.  Data-based protocols have been adopted in fields such as business, education, and law enforcement, demonstrating the usefulness of this approach.  Data-based decision making in management (DataMgt) requires that managers and their organizations procure and organize enough empirical and objective data to implement a scientific decision-making process.  Critics argue that Data-based approaches do not take ethics into consideration. As a result, managers must take an active role in implementation.  Overall, DataMgt is a useful tool for managers to generate informed and intelligent perspectives, decisions, and strategies as they lead a company. The adoption of DataMgt also creates advantages in how an organization operates. The formal processes of DataMgt require managers and other decision makers to...

Words: 978 - Pages: 4

Free Essay

S2S Business Model

...Constructing Vision with Scenario Planning Terry R. Schumacher Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, Engineering Management Dept., Terre Haute, IN 47803 USA Abstract Strategic vision is often included as an important component of leadership. Yet there is relatively little guidance offered in the management literature on how to acquire vision. This paper describes practices that facilitate scenario planning so that it becomes a process for creating shared vision. Most of the work on scenarios addresses the mechanics of scenario construction. Those authors adopt a planning perspective and suggest scenario planning can benefit organizations by stimulating creative thinking about the future or improving forecasts. The Scenarios-to-Strategies (S2S) approach is presented, and scenario planning is considered from a communication perspective. Facilitation practices that enhance traditional scenario-building processes are presented which support the social processes of constructing shared vision. These operate on the layer of participants' cognitive processes, to integrate the different participants' views into a unified, shared framework that heightens understanding and commitment. Example scenario planning projects from two industries, electric utilities and software research, are summarized to demonstrate lessons learned that enhance the facilitation of scenarios as a group process. Introduction Scenarios are a commonly used management technique. There is wide variation in the details...

Words: 9260 - Pages: 38

Free Essay

Internatioanl Marketing

...Scenarios planning is the main technique to study the future, and it have been used since long time by the government planners, corporate managers and military analysts, as important tool to help them in making decision to face the uncertainty. The idea of scenario planning is to establish about possible future where it can minimise surprises and broaden the span of managers. Today the scenarios planning they have become extremely popular. ( Chermack, T. J. 2003).  Scenario planning
is
a
group‐based
decision
making
tool, which
has
its
roots
in
post‐
WWII
military
planning
and
the
petroleum
industry
of
the
1970s such as Royal Dutch Company.
Unlike
its
cousins, 
forecasting
 and
 prediction, 
 scenario
 planning
 does
 not
 attempt
 to
 project
 future
outcomes
 based
 on
 data
 from
 the
 past.
 
 These
 methods
 can
 often
 lead
 to
 “tunnel
vision”, 
 due
 to
 their
 preference
 of
 one
 outcome
 over
 another. Scenario
 planning, 
 as
 described
 by
 Peter
 Schwartz, 
 Chairman
 of
 Global
 Business
Network
(GBN),
“…is
a
tool
for
better
decision
making…Business
and
governments
employ
this
tool
because
it
helps
them
to
make
better
strategic
decisions.”

 (Schlegel, G. L., & Murray, P. 2010) The History
of
Scenario
Planning
Scenario
 planning
 arose
 out
 of
 a
 need
 to
 plan
 for
 futures
 filled
 with
 much
uncertainty.
This
uncertainty
is
particularly
magnified
in
military
operations,
which
is
 why
 scenario‐type
 planning
 can
 be
 traced
 back
 to
 19‐century
 military
...

Words: 1750 - Pages: 7

Premium Essay

Supply Chain Management

...Assignment Front Sheet Qualification Unit number and title Pearson BTEC Level 7 Diploma in Strategic Management and Leadership (QCF) Unit 14: Strategic Supply Chain Management and Logistics Unit Code: D/602/2357 Student name Assessor name Date issued Completion date Submitted on Assignment title Word Count Hand-in Policy You must complete this assignment on time. If you experience difficulties, you must inform your tutor accordingly. Late Work Policy Consideration will be given to students who have valid reasons for late submission (e.g. illness) Plagiarism In case of plagiarism, college regulations will be applied. You must declare that this work is your own by signing the following statement: Learner declaration I certify that the work submitted for this assignment is my own and research sources are fully acknowledged. Student signature: Date: Assessment Criteria Learning Outcome LO1 LO2 LO3 Learning Outcome Understand the relationship between supply chain management (SCM) and organisational business objectives Be able to use information technology to optimise supplier relationships in an organisation Understand the role of information technology in supply chain management Assess ment Criteria 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 LO4 Understand the role of logistics and procurement in supply chain management 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.1 LO5 Be able to plan...

Words: 1970 - Pages: 8

Premium Essay

Chemical

...Strategic Management and Business Policy, 14e (Wheelen) Chapter 4 Environmental Scanning and Industry Analysis 1) Environmental scanning is the monitoring, evaluating, and disseminating of information from the external environment to key people within the corporation. Answer: TRUE Difficulty: Easy Chapter Objective: Recognize aspects of an organization’s environment that can influence its long-term decisions 2) A corporation uses environmental scanning to avoid strategic surprise. Answer: TRUE Difficulty: Moderate Chapter Objective: Recognize aspects of an organization’s environment that can influence its long-term decisions AACSB: Analytical Thinking 3) Political-legal forces regulate the values, mores, and customs of society. Answer: FALSE Difficulty: Easy Chapter Objective: Recognize aspects of an organization’s environment that can influence its long-term decisions 4) The societal environment includes the economic, technological, political-legal, and sociocultural forces. Answer: TRUE Difficulty: Moderate Chapter Objective: Recognize aspects of an organization’s environment that can influence its long-term decisions 5) Industry analysis was popularized by Michael Porter. Answer: TRUE Difficulty: Moderate Chapter Objective: Recognize aspects of an organization’s environment that can influence its long-term decisions 6) In dynamic environments, the CEO's focus is on forces in the societal environment. Answer: FALSE Difficulty:...

Words: 6834 - Pages: 28

Premium Essay

Workforce Planning

...HRA 4210 Work Planning & Talent Management The process of determining staffing levels aims to identify the numbers and types of employees needed to be successful in solidifying the business plans and strategies for an organization. Organizations apply several different techniques to accomplish this task. However, there are ways to implement fundamental building blocks to set a baseline for success; but due to numerous variables, a step-by-step concrete solution for determining staffing levels cannot exist. Consistent within any stage of strategic staffing, it is crucial to understand the overall plans and strategies of the business and what factors are driving staffing. As discussed by Heneman, “organization effectiveness and staffing systems exist, and should be used, to contribute to the attainment of organizational goals such as survival, profitability, and growth. A macro view of staffing like this is often lost or ignored because most of the day-to-day operations of staffing systems involve micro activities that are procedural, transactional, and routine in nature. While these micro activities are essential for staffing systems, they must be viewed within the broader macro context of the positive impacts staffing can have on organization effectiveness” (6). Managers and Human Resources must share a common understanding of the business needs and react through implementing corresponding staffing levels. Only with a common perspective between management and human...

Words: 2895 - Pages: 12

Premium Essay

Hrm Planning

...relationship with strategic organizational planning. Examine the nature and role of HRM info system(HRMIS) in HRP and SHRM Develop an understanding of the techniques of HRP and advantages/disadvantages of HRP process I.HRP and SHRM HRP is the bridge between HRS and HR Function(Activity).It’s the process through which the Organisational Goals are translated into HR goals in staff-ing levels and allocation HRP ensures the org have the right people with right skill in right place at the right time. HRP guides the long-term resourcing of people in org-the acquisition(capture),use and development of Human capital and knowledge assets Workfoce Planning(HRP)=>Preparing to recruit=>Attracting Staff=>Recruiting and selecting staff=>Developing and retaining staff. Step:Environmental Scanning(External and internal)=>Labour Demand Forecasting=>Labour supply analysis=>Balancing demand and supply Emphasied the need to diagnose(discover) the real reasons for mismatches in supply/demand Using a mix of qualitative and quantitative techniques It Involves: Forecasting labour requirement for an org Predicting likely(will happen) sources Environmental Scanning Development of Objective and Goals Formulating the necessary steps to meet needs Evaluation(Judgement) of the planning process The HR Planner should: 1st Analyzing Environmental Factors and Organization Direction=>Forecasting Demand Analyzing Internal & External Workforce=>Forecasting Supply 2nd...

Words: 772 - Pages: 4

Premium Essay

Supply Chain Management

...Supply chain management has been defined as the "design, planning, execution, control, and monitoring of supply chain activities with the objective of creating net value, building a competitive infrastructure, leveraging worldwide logistics, synchronizing supply with demand and measuring performance globally. SCM draws heavily from the areas of operations management, logistics, procurement, and information technology, and strives for an integrated approach. Commonly accepted definitions of supply chain management include: • The management of upstream and downstream value-added flows of materials, final goods, and related information among suppliers, company, resellers, and final consumers. • The systematic, strategic coordination of traditional business functions and tactics across all business functions within a particular company and across businesses within the supply chain, for the purposes of improving the long-term performance of the individual companies and the supply chain as a whole • A customer-focused definition is given by Hines (2004:p76): "Supply chain strategies require a total systems view of the links in the chain that work together efficiently to create customer satisfaction at the end...

Words: 2392 - Pages: 10

Premium Essay

Operations

...sales mainly comprises of surgeries related to hernia, cataract, vein and laser surgery and cosmetic and plastic surgery. We have used regression analysis to predict the sales for the fourth year, considering the seasonality of the sales and trends. The analysis done clearly indicates that the maximum sale is achieved between the month of June and September. The graph shows an upward trend indicating the regular increase in sales. We also calculated Mean Absolute percentage Variance to calculate our accuracy. It came out to be 2.5 which suggest our accuracy is 97.5% which is clearly not bad but to stay that way, we will have to monitor the forecasting every quarterly if not monthly because of the cost involved in it. Necessary changes should be made after forecasting it because strategic implementation is more necessary. Otherwise, forecasting will be of no use. We have also provided some recommendations for managing their capacity to equip themselves better in the high sales month and to get rid of the extra cost in the low sales month providing the cost effectiveness. TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4 Sales Trend-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4 Seasonal Index-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------5 Sales Forecast---------------------------------...

Words: 1404 - Pages: 6

Premium Essay

Career Development Plan I

...that will be used. These development plans will provide the foundation necessary to identify several key employees to fit the needs of the new team. As part of the creation process of the new team a job analysis will provide the required information to progress in defining what it is we need. The job analysis is a process to identify and determine in detail the particular job duties and requirements and the relative importance of these duties for a given job (hr-guide.com, n.d.). The job analysis will be specific to the new marketing and sales person that will be required in the new team. One of the elements that the job analysis will look into is compensation and how to create a base and scale. The compensation factors for these roles will be skill levels in the field the needed for the position, sales and marketing. Another element in the job analysis will be the training needs. What content will the training contain to bring these people up to pace in the organizations products? There will need to be an assessment created to...

Words: 1180 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

Critical Analysis

...argued the most common question “Have the predictions been accurate? ‘With the question ‘‘did our futures research create any value?’’ .Further in the paper the author have supported his argument with a literature review and empirical investigation. Based on the literature review the author have found out three main group of potential value creations (Rohrbeck 2011) • Trigger organizational responses, including identifying relevant external change, start new innovation initiatives and challenge innovation development to ensure state-of-the-art • Start and facilitate strategic discussions to enable strategic change, including challenge and change existing mental models, moderate strategic discussions, promote participation and support breaking away from path dependency • Identify and support acquisition of needed strategic resources, including identify resources, decide on development of acquisition From the strategic management perspective the article finds a process logic of dynamic capabilities which describes the four phases of the adaptation of an organization to the changing environment (Helfat, et al. 2007) (1) Search and selection of new resources, (2) Decision-making based on their adoption, (3) Configuration and deployment, and (4)...

Words: 2436 - Pages: 10

Premium Essay

Bulmash Smple Chapter 2

...CHAPTER PART 2 2 Forecasting Demand and Supply FORECASTING DEMAND AND SUPPLY LEARNING OBJECTIVES • • • • • • Understand and select information required to forecast HRP Identify members of the HR planning team Understand the four steps in the HRP process Apply techniques to forecast HR demand and supply Describe various methods for assessing labour planning (quantitative and qualitative) Discuss key challenges in forecasting HR demand and supply 26 Part 2 | Forecasting Demand and Supply ■ PROFILE The Great Pyramid of Giza The Great Pyramid of Giza has fascinated the world for centuries and is revered as one of the greatest mysteries of time. When it was first built it was 145 metres tall, making it the tallest structure on the earth for over 4,300 years. Egyptologists argue that even with all of the human and computer advancements achieved to date, it would be near impossible to replicate the production of these pyramids. The HR planning scale of the project would be among the biggest challenges to face. Archaeologists have their own methods for determining how many workers (mostly slaves) were employed at Giza, but a majority agree that the Great Pyramid was built by approximately 4,000 primary labourers—quarry workers, haulers, and masons. These primary labourers would have been supported by 16,000 to 20,000 secondary workers—ramp builders, tool-makers, mortar mixers, and those providing back-up services such as supplying food, clothing, and fuel. These estimates suggest...

Words: 13612 - Pages: 55