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Ryanair Case

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Ryanair Case Analysis 2012
Patricia Saylor
EKATERINA KOUPRIANOVA
Accounting
June 2, 2013

From the perspective of Ryanair, the major issue facing the firm is its valuation in the long-term, known as its economic value. Although the firm maintains a bullish outlook, there are diverging opinions regarding the valuation of the firm among investors. The valuations of the firm vary widely, with stock price estimates ranging from 3.05 to 7.57 (fine facts, pg. 1, 2012). This range reflects discrepancies on whether Ryanair has solid business model and fundamentals as well as numerous issues that plague not only Ryanair, but the airline industry as a whole. These issues are as follows: · Competition: Regulation permitted the entrance of start-up carriers, which, when combined with the excess capacity and the potential for high returns, has led to increased competition. Increased competition has and will continue to force Ryanair to reduce fare prices. · Costs: Regulation, although beneficial in some regards (cut-price deals), has also been costly for Ryanair. An unfavorable ruling by the EU in February 2004 put pressure on Ryanair's stock price and raised uncertainty among investors. Of more concern are rising costs associated with labor and fuel, which could increase fares and reduce margins and overall profitability. · Macroeconomic environment: The airline industry has proven particularly sensitive to phenomena such as terrorist attacks, wars, outbreaks (SARS), drastic currency fluctuations, and the like. These phenomena tend to have a significant impact on the cost of fuel, overall demand for air transportation, tourism, etc. To determine the economic value of Ryanair, these issues must be assessed with an appropriate time frame, passenger capacity, and discount rate.

ANALYSIS To calculate the valuation of Ryanair, the firm's future revenues and costs, as well as the firm's current accounting value must be calculated. To account for a range of possibilities, three different valuations have been calculated through 2012. These are called Annual Report, Valuation 1, and Valuation 2. Descriptions of each of these valuations will develop as the revenue and cost modeling are discussed. A description of the valuations will conclude the Analysis portion of this document (ryanair, pg. 10, 2012).

FUTURE REVENUES Revenues on Per-Passenger Basis: For simplicity, and clarity, all models were generated using per-passenger revenue information. Using this marginal revenue calculation as opposed to a disaggregated marginal and total revenue model offered the advantage of compensating for data that was not fully contained within the case. This allows assumptions to be made about continuous and linear marginal revenue curve. In addition, it is assumed that the per-passenger revenue cited in the case ($49/42.61 per passenger) is the basis for this marginal revenue model. Currency Conversion: One complication is the nominal per-passenger value is in U.S. Dollars, and the rest of the financial statements are in Euros. It is assumed that the exchange rate on March 31, 2004, when the only U.S. Dollar calculation provided was $1.85. This was the only necessary conversion and thus simplified the valuations. Passenger Traffic & Capacity: The other variable aside from revenue per passenger is the number of passengers. This number was approximated at 24.5 million in 2004 based upon the graph in Exhibit 3. The model also follows the assumptions outlined in Ryanair's 2004 annual report, where passenger traffic is predicted to increase 20% annually. In a separate note, Ryanair estimates passenger traffic will triple by 2012, which is inconsistent with the 20% annual growth estimate. Given the number of aircraft currently operated (91) and the load they currently carry (80%), it can be determined that the maximum passenger traffic after increasing overall capacity (140 new planes) will be approximately 70-90 million passengers annually. The estimate of tripling 2004 passengers by the end of 2012 is consistent with maximum capacity. The 20% annual increase in passenger traffic is not consistent with maximum capacity Ryanair will have in 2011 or 2012, but more planes could be ordered to meet demand. For the purposes of this valuation, it is assumed more planes could be ordered to accommodate the increased demand forecasted for 2011 and 2012. The annual report based valuation model incorporates the 20% assumption across the time series in a linear fashion, ending in 2012. This linearity, while not necessarily representative of the actual increases Ryanair will experience year after year, is based upon clear information provided by the firm. This is paired with a decrease in per-seat price as dictated in the annual report as well. This per-seat decrease is represented by a decrease in the price per seat of five percent annually. Load Factor: The two other valuations performed, one with assumed load factor of close to 90% and one with a lower load factor of 80%, which is closer to the current load level. Both of those valuations begin with a high increase in passenger traffic that tapers off in future periods. Revenue per Passenger: Valuations 1 and 2 assume a consistent per-passenger revenue. It is possible to assume, given current trends, and desire to reduce fares, that a larger portion of the revenues come from ancillary sources, such as food and beverage sales. This makes constant per-passenger revenue possible, while still adhering to the stated objective of reducing fares. Valuation Summary for Revenues: The descriptions of the three different valuations regarding revenues (this does NOT include costs) are as follows: · Annual Report: This valuation maintains assumptions set forth in Ryanair's 2004 annual report, which are: 20% increase in passenger traffic annually, 5% reduction in fares annually, and 20% increase in profit margin annually. The increased passenger traffic is a result of lower fares and fair macroeconomic conditions. This creates a discounted future revenue stream, throughout the time horizon of approximately 10.9 billion. · Valuation 1: This valuation model utilizes an increase in passengers in line with the stated capacity. This model also assumes the fares are constant. For this reason, a lower discounted future revenue stream is present, at 10.6 billion. · Valuation 2: This valuation model assumes an increase in passengers, which increases the load factor to almost 90%. This creates a higher future revenue stream, resulting in higher margins when compared with the other valuations. This is shown in the discounted future revenue stream, which is 11.7 billion. FUTURE COSTS The second step is estimating Ryanair's future costs. Future costs are determined by multiplying the total projected passenger traffic by the cost per passenger. Although this method of estimating costs is simplistic, it is very reasonable given the degree of uncertainty in this industry. Valuation Summary for Costs: The descriptions of the three different valuations regarding costs (this does NOT include revenues) are as follows: · Annual Report: As outlined in the annual report, this valuation assumes a 20% increase in passenger traffic annually and a 5% decrease in cost per passenger. The total discounted cost stream is 8.4 billion. · Valuation 1: This valuation assumes an 80% load factor annually and a 5% increase annually in the cost per passenger. The total discounted cost stream is 10.5 billion. · Valuation 2: This valuation assumes an increase in passenger traffic, bringing the load factor close to 90%, with a 5% decrease in cost per passenger. The total discounted cost stream is 8.6 billion. The decrease in cost in the Annual Report valuation are assumed given the cost savings associated with the new planes, as well as moderately stable fuel, labor, and other costs. The cost savings from the new planes come from increased fuel efficiency, greater passenger capacity per plane, and less maintenance. Valuation 1 assumes increased passenger traffic at a decreasing rate to show higher costs and lower revenue. The cost per passenger in this valuation increases as a result of a scenario with higher fuel prices, higher labor costs, fare competition, and/or changes in regulations would offset the revenue. For Valuation 2, the higher load factor results in lower costs per passenger and higher revenue. However, overall costs increase as a result of higher passenger volume.

ADDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS Discount Rate: The discount rate used to determine the NPV of future profits is 10.5% this was determined using a risk free rate of 4.5% and a market risk premium of 6%. The risk free rate is very typical given the current economy and market risk premium is appropriate given the volatility and risk associated with the airline industry. Time Period: The time period of eight years (2005 through 2012) is used for a few reasons. Although the airline industry is so volatile, it is necessary to forecast beyond five years because of the lead-time needed for purchasing planes. Also, cyclical trends associated with economies and consumer spending tend to be mitigated over time as are the effects of phenomenon such as armed conflicts and outbreaks of diseases.

ACCOUNTING VALUE Based on the information provided in 2004 the financial statements, the accounting value of Ryanair is 1.46 billion See "Accounting" appendix for calculations.

SUMMARY OF VALUATIONS Financial Value NPV Fut. Profits Economic Value · Annual Report: 1.46 billion,2.5 billion, 3.95 billion · Valuation 1: 1.46 billion, 67.5 million, 1.52 billion · Valuation 2: 1.46 billion, 3.0 billion, 4.49 billion

RECOMMENDATION Of the three valuations under consideration, Ryanair should assume the Annual Report valuation of 3.95 billion best captures the economic value of the firm. This is because the assumed increased passenger traffic is a result of lower fares, coupled with higher margins as a result of cost savings. These savings are not only associated with the introduction of new planes, but also with fair macroeconomic conditions were moderately stable fuel, labor, and other costs exist.

References

(fine facts, pg. 1, 2012) http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1024369.shtml
(ryanair, pg. 10, 2012) http://www.ryanair.com/en/investor/download/2012

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