...Discussion Question #2 Week 5 Lynnlee Palmer RES/342 July 2012 Biman Ghosh Discussion Question #2 Week 5 Components of a Time Series: (1) Secular trend The term “trend” is commonly used in day-to-day conversation. We often complain about the rising trend of population, prices etc. “Trend”, also called “Secular” or “long-term” trend is the basic tendency of production, sales, income, employment etc. to grow or decline over a period. It includes steady movements over a long time and excludes short-range oscillations. Secular trend is attributable to factors such as population change, technological progress, or large-scale shifts in consumer tastes. More populations call for more food, more clothing, and more housing. Technological changes, discovery, or depletion of resources, improvements in business organization and Government intervention in the economy is other major causes for the growth or decline of many economic time series. Secular trends may be linear or nonlinear. (2) Seasonal variation Seasonal variations are those periodic movements in business activity, which occur regularly every year and have their origin in the nature of the year itself. Since they repeat over a period of 12 months, they can be predicted accurately. Almost any type of business activity is susceptible to a seasonal influence to a greater or lesser degree and as such, these variations are regarded as normal phenomena during every year. Although the word...
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...Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures Edited by Coen Teulings and Richard Baldwin CEPR Press a A VoxEU.org Book Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes, and Cures A VoxEU.org eBook Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Centre for Economic Policy Research 3rd Floor 77 Bastwick Street London, EC1V 3PZ UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7183 8801 Email: cepr@cepr.org Web: www.cepr.org ISBN: 978-1-907142-77-2 © CEPR Press, 2014 Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes, and Cures A VoxEU.org eBook edited by Coen Teulings and Richard Baldwin CEPR Press abcde Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) is a network of almost 900 research economists based mostly in European universities. The Centre’s goal is twofold: to promote world-class research, and to get the policy-relevant results into the hands of key decision-makers. CEPR’s guiding principle is ‘Research excellence with policy relevance’. A registered charity since it was founded in 1983, CEPR is independent of all public and private interest groups. It takes no institutional stand on economic policy matters and its core funding comes from its Institutional Members and sales of publications. Because it draws on such a large network of researchers, its output reflects a broad spectrum of individual viewpoints as well as perspectives drawn from civil society. CEPR research may include views on policy, but the Executive Committee of the Centre does not give prior...
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...Khurshid Alam |12-170 | |5. |MD. Saiful Islam |12-254 | Letter of Transmittal Date: 16th September, 2008 M. Khairul Hossain Professor Department Of Finance Faculty of Business Studies University of Dhaka Subject: Submission of report We are pleased to submit the following report on the “Time Series Analysis”. By completing the report, we have got acquainted importance and relevance of time series on business application. We also perceived idea on the whole process of Time Series Analysis. We acquired knowledge about the method of measuring trend, growth rate, acceleration rate etc. In spite of limitation of time & opportunity we have tried our level best to complete the report. We are pleased to provide you with this report with necessary analysis, references and we shall be available for any clarification, if required. Thank you for assigning us in this study. On behalf of the group Md. Arif Hasan ID:...
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...relevance of time series on business application. We also perceived idea on the whole process of Time Series Analysis. We acquired knowledge about the method of measuring trend, growth rate, acceleration rate etc. In spite of limitation of time & opportunity we have tried our level best to complete the report. We are pleased to provide you with this report with necessary analysis, references and we shall be available for any clarification, if required. Thank you for assigning us in this study. On behalf of the group Md. Arif Hasan ID: 12-150 Table of Contents Serial No Topic Page No 1 Letter of Transmittal 1 2 Rationale of the study 2 3 Objectives of the report 3 4 Methodology of the report 3 5 What is Time Series 4 6 Uses of Time Series in Business 5 7 Components of a Time Series 5 8 Classical Time Series Model 9 9 Methods of trend measurement 9 10 Least squares method 10 11 The Growth Rate 14 12 The Acceleration Rate 15 13 Rule of 72 16 14 Bibliography 17 Rationale of the study Having been assigned to prepare a report on Time Series Analysis we are submitting the term paper based on our findings and understandings. Time series analysis has vast application and is of huge importance in the field of Business and Economics as well as in decision making thereof. Calculating secular trend we can know whether unit sales or revenues of a particular Business organization are increasing, decreasing or remaining constant over time. Cyclical variation affords us...
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...Adjustments before statistical analysis of time series data: Before we start statistical analysis of time series data, we should see whether or not they represent a series of comparable figures over time. A series of figures may not be comparable or homogeneous for a number of reasons. For example, Changes in population and geographical areas: The figures may relate to geographical areas which change over time. The series may relate to population which is always changing over time. The data related to geographical area or population are adjusted by expressing the data in ‘per unit’ or ‘per capita’. Calendar variations: Industrial production data over different months are not homogeneous as the number of working days in different calendar months are not same. To make the data on production comparable, we divide the figure for each month by the number of working days in that month to express the data in ‘per working day’ Price changes: Monetary data are not comparable over time as the purchasing power of money changes. To make monetary data comparable we divide the figures of the current period by a suitable price index (say, wholesale price index number) of the current period with respect to some base period. This will necessitate dividing or deflating the current figure by the index number of prices of the current period with the chosen base period. If the index number be I(0k) (in percent form), 100 rupees in base period (0) has the same purchasing power as I(0k) rupees...
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...Question 1 (1 point) Which of the following sex characteristics is the first to develop in boys? Question 1 options: 1) production of sperm 2) appearance of facial hair 3) growth of testes and scrotum 4) growth of penis Save Question 2 (1 point) The _____ is the minimal amount of energy one uses when resting. Question 2 options: 1) basal metabolism rate 2) delayed phase preference 3) secular trend 4) feedback loop Save Previous PageNext PagePage 1 of 10 ________________________________________ Save All ResponsesGo To Submit Quiz Question 3 (1 point) Which of the following statements about the production of hormones at puberty is false? Question 3 options: 1) The body begins to produce several hormones that have not been present in the body up until this time. 2) There is an increase in the production of certain hormones. 3) Boys' bodies produce more androgens and girls' bodies produce more estrogens. 4) The feedback loop regulating the endocrine system's set point for each hormone becomes increasingly important. Save Question 4 (1 point) In their research on the relationship between early maturation and problem behaviors among adolescent girls, Caspi and Moffitt have found all of the following, except: Question 4 options: 1) an increase in problem behavior for early-maturing girls. 2) no increase in problem behavior for early-maturing girls if the girls did not exhibit problem behaviors...
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...Assess the nature and extent of secularisation in society today. (33 marks) In today’s society there are sociological arguments that say society is becoming more and more secular. A secular society is where religious beliefs and values have lost influence and importance in society. Some seem to think that this has happened in Britain. There is much evidence for this for example statistics show that there has been a decline in the proportion of the population going to church. There has also been an increase in the average age of churchgoers, fewer church weddings and baptisms, a decline in the numbers holding traditional Christian beliefs and greater religious diversity. Wilson has argued that Western societies had been undergoing a long term process of secularisation. Sociologists put forward different explanations of these trends and have reached different conclusions. A common theme that is put forward to explain the recent patterns that secularisation is taking place is modernisation. Weber comes up with the theory of rationalisation and the fact that rational ways of thinking and acting have come to replace religious ones. He argues that the protestant reformation started the process of rationalisation of life whereby rational scientific outlook found in modern society has undermined religious worldview. He says that this has contributed to the decrease in influence if religious beliefs in society today. He also argues that disenchantment of religion has taken place with...
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...and choice. (33 marks) Some sociologists reject the secularisations theory, they are beginning to say that instead of religion declining, it is changing, in terms of changing to reflect a new era of diversity and choice. Sociologists such as Davie argue that religion isn't declining but the need to publicise it is reducing, religion is taking a more privatised form. This can explain the decline in churchgoers; they no longer feel like they have to go to church to be religious, now attending church is a matter of choice rather than society frowning upon those who chose not to go. This has brought around ‘believing without belonging’, thus the decline of traditional religion is matched by the growth of a new form of it. Proving that modern society is not becoming increasing secular but forming new religions through choice and diversity. However, Voas and Crockett reject the claims Davie puts forward, explaining that if her thesis was to be true the British Social Attitudes survey from 1983 to 200 would show that belief in God is increasing, although it shows that not only is church attendance declining but also peoples belief in God. If Davie were right with new religions forming the surveys would've shown higher levels of belief. Bruce also interjects the view that if those who are religious are not willing to invest time into attending church, this must reflect the declining strength of their beliefs, thus the secularisation thesis must be somewhat accurate. Hervieu-Léger...
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...describe the climate at the time. The first co-operative may have been founded on March 14, 1761, in a barely-furnished cottage in Fenwick, East Ayrshire, when local weavers manhandled a sack of oatmeal into John Walker's whitewashed front room and began selling the contents at a discount, forming the Fenwick Weavers' Society. In the decades that followed, several co-operatives or co-operative societies formed including Lennoxtown Friendly Victualling Society, founded in 1812. The early attempts at forming co-operatives met with varying degrees of success, and it was not until 1844 when the Rochdale Society of Equitable Pioneers established the 'Rochdale Principles' on which they ran their co-operative, that the basis for development and growth of the modern co-operative movement was established. Robert Owen (1771–1858) is considered the father of the co-operative movement. A Welshman who made his fortune in the cotton trade, Owen believed in putting his workers in a good environment with access to education for themselves and their children. These ideas were put into effect successfully in the cotton mills of...
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...pwc.com.au/mba PwC analysis of the major banks results for full year 2012 Modest growth, potential for more ... The most recent Australian bank results show the extent of headwinds facing the Australian banks. After two years of double-digit profit growth, underlying cash earnings rose by only 3.6% in 2012. All of that growth came early in the year; with profit showing no growth in the second six months compared to the first half-year. At the same time, the banks continued to strengthen their capital base with average shareholder funds rising by 8.5% in 2012 compared to 2011, so that return on equity (RoE) fell from 16.4% in 2011 to 15.6% in 2012, reinforcing our long-held view that bank RoEs are in transition to an era where 15% will set the upper bound, not the lower bound, for Australian bank average RoEs. This cautious outlook is reinforced by global developments since our last report six months ago, and in particular that global growth expectations have been revised downwards, leading to further monetary policy easing across the globe, including in Australia. At the same time ECB President Draghi’s commitment in July to do “whatever it takes” marked a much more constructive period for dealing with Eurozone concerns and supporting lower risk yields in many markets including wholesale funding markets for our banks over the past few months. The in-principle agreement to create a Eurozone banking union is a tangible sign of meaningful change. Domestically, the main...
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...Sociology Z103 | SECULARISM AND INTERFAITH MARRIAGE: interpretation of the secularism scale of iba students and its correlation with interfaith marriage | Sociology Z103 Prepared For: AI Mahbub Uddin Ahmed Prepared By: Farzana Yasmin Rivi BBA-17(B) Roll: RQ 53 Date: 15/07/10 Institute of Business Administration (IBA) University of Dhaka Institute of Business Administration (IBA) University of Dhaka Dear Sir: Here is the report which you asked to submit for the requirement of undergraduate course- Sociology. The report topic is “Secularism and Interfaith Marriage: Interpretation of the Secularism Scale of IBA Students and its Correlation with Interfaith Marriage”. As per the requirement of the report, it is based on both primary and secondary information. The primary information was collected through survey and the main sources of secondary information are various journal articles on the topic. I would like to mention that I carried out this entire report under your supervision and that this report has not been formerly presented in IBA to the best of my knowledge. I also pledge that either today or in the future, no part of this report may be reproduced without your written permission. I sincerely hope that I was able to fulfil the course requirement successfully through the submission of this report. I have put in my best effort to contribute towards the successful completion of this report. I earnestly hope that you will accept this report and...
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...believed that industrialisation and the growth of scientific knowledge would lead to secularisation. This is because, with science many questions can be finally answered, instead of society using religion as an answer for the unknown. For now it is important to look at the definition of secularisation itself. According to the sociologist Bryan Wilson he defines secularisation as the process whereby religious thinking, practices and institutions lose social significance, in other words there is a decline in religion. Statistical evidence is one of the best ways to investigate if secularisation is actually occurring and church attendance is one of the most valid arguments in the secularisation debate. The decrease of religious significance can be supported by the number of people attending the catholic church. For instance, in 1980 the catholic church reported a total of 2,064,000 attendees. Using the same statistics 25 years later in 2005 it was reported the new number of attendees was at 1,048,900. This is a total decrease of approximately 1,015,100 people! Further support can be given by Bruce. Bruce’s study found participation and occurrence in religious ceremonies has decreased substantially. For instance, in the 1920s and 1930s, about 90% of children were baptised, however, current figures suggest it is only around 35%. That is a 55% decrease! Although this evidence supports secularisation, it is important to note there has been a growth in New Religious Movements’s (NRM’S)...
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...Globalization and the Future Tom Lombardo, Ph.D. Introduction Globalization is perhaps the most significant and pervasive contemporary trend. Humanity is moving from a set of relatively autonomous nation states to an integrated global reality, more ruled by international corporations and organizations, and economic and ecological interdependencies, than national and political ideologies and issues. Fueled by global communication, technological networking, expanding transportation systems, economic exchange and competition, and the growth and spread of a global culture, globalization is seen both as a positive and as a negative trend. What are the main features of globalization, what are the future possibilities, and how will globalization have an effect upon your individual life? Outline “Nothing will be done anymore without the whole world meddling in it.” Paul Valéry The History of Globalization Positive Images of Globalization Imbalance, Diversity, and Conflict: The Problems of Globalization Global Tensions, Challenges, and Evolution for the Future Howard Bloom – The Deep History of Globalization – Reciprocity and Conquest Global Communication and Networking of Life Global Expansion of Humanity Emergence of Cities and Trade Routes Reciprocity and Conquest Robert Wright The Evolution of Win-Win Reciprocities in Human History The Expansion of Economic Interdependencies and Exchange The Expansion of Communication Networks Cumulative...
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...Anniversary of the founding of Quebec and to do it in Quebec City. The topic given me is current, topical and emotional. Food prices are always controversial, either too high for consumers or too low for farmers and often unstable. The paper is divided into four parts: the first places the current situation in historical context; the second identifies some competing explanations for high food prices; the third analyzes in more detail the Structural Change/Shock story; and the fourth notes the consequences, especially for Developing Countries. The paper closes with the big question - When the bubble breaks, will long run real prices be on a higher level with a stable or increasing trend or will we back to “Business as Usual” with real prices dropping down to the previous level and continuing their 150 year downward trend? THE CURRENT SITUATION IN HISTORICAL CONTEXT FAO’s price index of all foods in dollar terms has more than doubled since last three years of the 20th century, and the real food price index has increased by over sixty percent (Figure 1.). Between the beginning of 2007 and mid-year 2008, rice prices tripled, wheat prices more than doubled and maize prices doubled (Stoeckel, 2008).(See figure 2) Prices for individual commodities such as milk, maize and oilseeds have also increased. The Wall Street Journal (June 10, 2008) reports that the cereal import bill of 82 low income countries has doubled since 2006. Figure 1: Extended Annual...
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