Free Essay

Simulation Modeling

In: Business and Management

Submitted By blr2016
Words 259
Pages 2
Brooklyn Warren
Chapter 10 Simulation Modeling

What is Simulation? * To try to duplicate the features, appearance, and characteristics of a real system. * Imitate a real-world situation mathematically. * Study its properties and operating characteristics. * Draw conclusions and make action decisions based on the results.

Processes of Simulation: 1. Define Problem 2. Introduce Important Variables 3. Construct Simulation Model 4. Specify Values of Variables to Be Tested 5. Conduct the Simulation 6. Examine the Results 7. Select Best Course of Action

Advantages of Simulation: * Straightforward and flexible. * Can handle large and complex systems. * Allows "what-if" questions. * Does not interfere with real-world systems. * Study interactions among variable. * "Time comparison" is possible. * Handles complications that other methods can't.

Disadvantages of Simulation: * Can be expensive and time consuming. * Does not generate optimal solutions. * Managers must generate all conditions and constraints. * Each model is unique.

Monte Carlo Simulation:
Can be used with variables that are probabilistic.
Steps:
* Establish the probability distribution for each random variable. * Use random numbers to generate random values. * Repeat for some number of replications.

Probability Distributions:
Historical data
Goodness-of-fit tests for common distributions: * Normal * Uniform * Exponential * Poisson * Binomial

Role of Computers: * Built-in random number procedures for simulating from several different probability distributions. * Easy and fast replication of a model. * Change input values and track output measures.

Simulation Software: * General purpose languages * Visual Basic, C++, Fortan, etc. * Special purpose simulation languages and programs. * GPSS, Simscript III, Visual SLAM, Extend, MicroSaint Sharp, BuildSim, ProModel, and Xcell * Less programming, easier error checking, automation. * Spreadsheet models - add-ins.

Similar Documents

Free Essay

Interpretation of Modeling and Simulation

...Interpretation of Modeling and Simulation Can there be a better fit for a company out there that uses Microsoft Excel to conduct modeling to simulate their business growth other than Microsoft itself? Microsoft has made billions of dollars selling their Microsoft Office Suites and their home computer operating systems around the world. They have become one of the largest and well known companies in the world. The way that I see it, is that Microsoft’s business model, in a nutshell, is to provide goods and services in the form of software and support to paying customers. One question that may be asked in this day an age is with the advances in cloud computing and Google’s “free” gadgets, will the traditional Microsoft’s business model come to an end? What will Microsoft’s business analysts do in order to change their business model? One can only imagine that it will need to be modeled and simulated first to avoid potentially expensive mistakes. I must start off by saying that before I started my Systems Modeling Theory online class through Strayer, I thought that it may just be one of the hardest classes to understand that I’ve ever taken throughout the course of my college career. I can say now after having completed the last nine weeks of class that I was correct. What’s hard, is not understanding the concepts of why businesses would use Excel models for their business growth but rather the actual use of Excel itself. With all of the bells and......

Words: 1781 - Pages: 8

Free Essay

Modeling and Simulation of Call Centers

...Proceedings of the 2005 Winter Simulation Conference M. E. Kuhl, N. M. Steiger, F. B. Armstrong, and J. A. Joines, eds. MODELING AND SIMULATION OF CALL CENTERS Athanassios N. Avramidis Pierre L’Ecuyer Département d’Informatique et de Recherche Opérationnelle Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128, Succ. Centre-Ville Montréal (Québec), H3C 3J7, CANADA ABSTRACT In this review, we introduce key notions and describe the decision problems commonly encountered in call center management. Main themes are the central role of uncertainty throughout the decision hierarchy and the many operational complexities and relationships between decisions. We make connections to analytical models in the literature, emphasizing insights gained and model limitations. The high operational complexity and the prevalent uncertainty suggest that simulation modeling and simulation-based decision-making could have a central role in the management of call centers. We formulate some common decision problems and point to recently developed simulation-based solution techniques. We review recent work that supports modeling the primitive inputs to a call center and highlight call center modeling difficulties. 1 INTRODUCTION Call centers are an important component of the global economy. Around 3% of the workforce in the United States and Canada works at a call center (Call Center News Service 2001). More people in North America work in call centers than in agriculture. Most of the......

Words: 678 - Pages: 3

Free Essay

Advances in Metal Forming Research at the Center for Precision Forming

...materials such as Ultra/Advanced High Strength Steels (U/AHSS), aluminum alloys, magnesium alloys and boron steels in automotive industry is increasing to reduce vehicle weight and increase crash performance. The use of these relatively new materials requires advanced and reliable techniques to a) obtain data on material properties and flow stress, b) predicting springback and fracture in bending and flanging, c) selecting lubricants and die materials/coatings for stamping and forging and d) designing tools for blanking and shearing. In addition, designing the process and tooling for a) hot stamping of boron steels, b) warm forming of Al and Mg alloys, and c) optimizing the use of servo-drive presses require advanced Finite Element based simulation methods. CPF is conducting R&D in most of these topics and also in many hot and cold forging related topics. This paper gives an overview of this research and discusses how the research results are applied in cooperation with industry. Keywords: Metal Forming, Sheet metal, Forging, FEM 1 INTRODUCTION The Center for Precision Forming (CPF) has been established with funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF) and a number of companies (www.cpforming.org). CPF is an outgrowth of the Engineering Research Center for Net Shape Manufacturing (ERC/NSM – www.ercnsm.org) and conducts research in sheet metal forming while ERC/NSM focuses on cold and hot forging related R&D projects. Both Centers work closely with industry under......

Words: 3894 - Pages: 16

Premium Essay

X-Ray

...County Hospital Simulation Project  Abstract The paper offers a simulation model describing the X-ray departments operations in the county hospital. It can be used for testing various process scenarios, for allocation of resources and also conduct activity based cost analysis. The simulation model is used for demonstrating a new operational method that makes the operations at the X-ray department more effective. The operational method is referred to as Triage team method. This method has been it is been studied from two view points. The results showed that the method enhances the X-ray department if properly implemented and it incorporates all the required tasks.  County hospital simulation project Introduction The department of x-ray in the county hospital is facing a challenge in the x-ray department. With the increased amount of patients visiting the x-ray department, the challenge to the health care managers is becoming serious. The process undergone and the resources need to be reconsidered to make the operations more efficient. This will also maintain the quality of care. The objective of the department is to ensure that the patients take minimal time in the process. The resources also need to be allocated in the most effective way and by use of more advanced technology.  Since X-ray department and the processes therewith are somewhat complicated, and have dynamic variables and has random features, definitely there is a need for a method that is effective.......

Words: 2402 - Pages: 10

Free Essay

Jet Copies

...JET Copies Case Problem In analyzing the case, JET Copies Case Problem, the following categories will be addressed: Model number of days to repair 1. In Excel, use a suitable method for generating the number of days needed to repair the copier, when it is out of service, according to the discrete distribution shown. JET copies needs to know the number of days they need to repair, when the copy machine is out of service. Using the given table, there are three columns of probability, repair time and cumulative. I used the figures given in case problem for probability and repair time days but for the cumulative column we started at 0.00 cumulative, then added the 0.20 to that to get the cumulative for day 2. For each probability subsequent to the previous we added, so for the 0.45 probability we added the 0.20 to get 0.65. Then repeating the same for the rest of probabilities, after 0.65 the cumulative resulted in 0.90. Then we used the table with ten columns. In the first column starting at A5, the formula entered was the =RAND() function to create random number for the first cell. That function formula was then dragged down to the below cells and locked to have the values be fixed. In the next column, I use the numbers copied from my first column. Then in the G5 column, we entered the function VLOOKUP to find the number of days needed to repair =VLOOKUP(F5,Lookup,2) and dragged the cell to have the same formula for the below cells in the column. Look up, in......

Words: 892 - Pages: 4

Free Essay

Simulations in Wireless Sensor and Ad Hoc Networks: Matching and Advancing Models, Metrics, and Solutions

...TOPICS IN AD HOC AND SENSOR NETWORKS Simulations in Wireless Sensor and Ad Hoc Networks: Matching and Advancing Models, Metrics, and Solutions Ivan Stojmenovic, University of Birmingham and University of Ottawa ABSTRACT The objective of this article is to give advice for carrying out a proper and effective simulation activity for protocol design. It challenges some of the existing criticisms of simulation practices that emphasized validation aspects. This article advocates the use of simple models, matching assumptions and metrics in the problem statement and simulation to provide a basic “proof of concept,” and comparison with truly competing solutions, which is possible only after a thorough and critical literature review. Then the complexity of the models can be increased (one parameter at a time), revising the algorithms themselves by adapting them to new assumptions, metrics, and the corresponding simulation environment. Selected independent variables should explain performance under a wide range of scenarios. unclear which protocol will perform well under a wide range of scenarios. It is our view that each article should be judged on its overall contribution, including the assumptions used, theory developed, new algorithms introduced, protocol details, simulation results, and relevance to an ultimate goal of staying on a path toward creating applications. We begin with a literature review of existing criticism for simulation practices, and then discuss what......

Words: 4845 - Pages: 20

Free Essay

Simulation

...INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this paper is to bring out the use of Simulation by Managers of various organizations. Under discussion will be:  Definition of simulation.  Model construction.  When and why it becomes handy to use simulation.  Steps used in simulation technique.  Random selection in simulation.  Advantages / benefits derived from use of simulation technique.  Disadvantages /Challenges associated with simulation technique.  Role of computer in simulation.  Conclusion / comments. Definition of simulation: Simulation can be defined as a quantitative technique which describes a process by developing a model of that process and then conduct a series of organized trial and error experiments to predict the behavior of the process through time often with the aid of a computer. It is a method that is used to solve a problem in many areas of management, for example inventory management, queuing problems, profit analysis and project management among others. Model construction: A successful simulation model has to be carefully designed in order to achieve the intended predictive purpose. Therefore important factors have to be considered such as; i. It must be objective oriented. It must be constructed for a purpose and be able to achieve that purpose. ii. Critical variables and relationships. These must be identified and incorporated in model. However it is not essential or indeed desirable to include all variables in the model. iii. Simplicity...

Words: 1498 - Pages: 6

Free Essay

Order Book Simulations Using Monte Carlo Methods

...Modeling Order Book Fluctuation by Monte Carlo Technique CONTENTS Page no. 1) Certificate 2 2) Acknowledgement 3 3) Abstract 5 4) Introduction 6 5) Simulation code 8 ➢ Order Book 8 ➢ Diffusion 9 ➢ Price and Annihilation 11 ➢ One Trade return 14 ➢ Waiting time between consecutive trades 16 ➢ Conditional return 19 ➢ Hurst curve 20 6) Results and Discussion 22 7) Summary 28 8) Future Prospects 29 9) References ...

Words: 1053 - Pages: 5

Free Essay

Jets Copies

...the probability distribution of the wait for repair services on JET’s copier. To model the probability of wait times in the JET Copies simulation, the JET partners generated a random number representing the probability of an occurrence of a breakdown. They then programmed a VLOOKUP function to match this breakdown probability to the corresponding “Repair Time in Days” column of the table. The result is the simulated time to get repair service for each breakdown occurrence. Interval between breakdowns The James, Ernie, and Terri purchased a copier just like the one used at their college office. When Ernie talked with someone in the dean’s office at State, he was told that the University’s copier broke down frequently often for 1 to 4 days. The partners became worried that their machine would also frequently break down. Although they could not get an exact probability distribution, James was able to determine that breakdowns occurred between 0 and 6 weeks apart. The probability of a breakdown increased as time passed. To model the time between breakdowns in their simulation, JET created a list of random numbers. Next, they applied the probability function f(x) = 2x/a2 0≤ x ≤ a. For this situation, the formula used is x = a √r. Since James estimated breakdowns occur zero to six weeks apart, the formula he used for this simulation is x = 6√r1. He then generated a list of random numbers and applied the formula to each random number. The result is the simulated......

Words: 862 - Pages: 4

Premium Essay

Supply Chain Management Based on Modeling & Simulation:

...5 Supply Chain Management Based on Modeling & Simulation: State of the Art and Application Examples in Inventory and Warehouse Management Francesco Longo Modeling & Simulation Center – Laboratory of Enterprise Solutions (MSC-LES) Mechanical Department, University of Calabria Via P. Bucci, Cubo 44C, third floor, 87036 Rende (CS) Italy 1. Introduction The business globalization has transformed the modern companies from independent entities to extended enterprises that strongly cooperate with all supply chain actors. Nowadays supply chains involve multiple actors, multiple flows of items, information and finances. Each supply chain node has its own customers, suppliers and inventory management strategies, demand arrival process and demand forecast methods, items mixture and dedicated internal resources. In this context, each supply chain manager aims to reach the key objective of an efficient supply chain: ‘the right quantity at the right time and in the right place’. To this end, each supply chain node (suppliers, manufacturers, distribution centers, warehouses, stores, etc.) carries out various processes and activities for guarantying goods and services to final customers. The competitiveness of each supply chain actor depends by its capability to activate and manage change processes, in correspondence of optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, to quickly capitalize the chances given by market. Such capability is a critical issue for improving the performance of the......

Words: 17564 - Pages: 71

Free Essay

Case1

...Computer Simulation: The process of computer simulation is mainly used for the purpose of generating an abstract model of a specific system. The way how system behaves can be shown by this along with few other activities involving constructing, designing and defining a model of a system. Simulation can be defined as mimicking or imitating through experimentation with a model of some real system Importance of Simulation: To lead a day-to-day life, many industries such as Healthcare, Military, Retail, Logistics etc. also makes use of these simulation models for their routine work to be done in an effective way. When these industries face problems they can be solved by acquiring the knowledge of simulation software which can be obtained by the use of analysis and modeling Simulation & Modeling can be used in various areas such as: In call centers- Simulation used in call centers is mainly to assure customer satisfaction. Simulation helps in predicting various calls and analyzing the agents to work on each type of call. Agents are trained in such a way that the waiting time for the incoming call should not be increased and one should respond to it immediately to answer customers queries managing their own time. This way customer satisfaction can be obtained handling numerous calls per day. Therefore simulation helps in call centers to plan and manage the workforce accordingly. In Healthcare- To investigate various diseases and to design new pharmaceutical agents......

Words: 332 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

Discrete Event System

...PART ONE Introduction to Discrete-Event System Simulation 1 Introduction to Simulation A simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system over time. Whether done by hand or on a computer, simulation involves the generation of an artificial history of a system, and the observation of that artificial history to draw inferences concerning the operating characteristics of the real system. The behavior of a system as it evolves over time is studied by developing a simulation model. This model usually takes the form of a set of assumptions concerning the operation of the system. These assumptions are expressed in mathematical, logical, and symbolic relationships between the entities, or objects of interest, of the system. Once developed and validated, a model can be used to investigate a wide variety of “what-if” questions about the realworld system. Potential changes to the system can first be simulated in order to predict their impact on system performance. Simulation can also be used to study systems in the design stage, before such systems are built. Thus, simulation modeling can be used both as an analysis tool for predicting the effect of changes to existing systems, and as a design tool to predict the performance of new systems under varying sets of circumstances. In some instances, a model can be developed which is simple enough to be “solved” by mathematical methods. Such solutions may be found by the use of differential calculus,......

Words: 33852 - Pages: 136

Premium Essay

Everest Executive Summary

...This report provides an in-depth analysis of the two Everest Simulations conducted by Group 10 of MGMT1001 Thursday Tutorial. This task required students to form teams consisting of five to six members whose goals were to summit Mount Everest. While it provided us with a rich experience in team dynamics and collaboration, it also enabled us to explore key managerial concepts taught in the course, consisting of: • Communication • Groups and Teams • Leadership In this report, we examine the effectiveness of Face to Face Communication (FTFC) versus Computer Mediated Communication (CMC), and the problems encountered through the utilisation of the virtual medium including efficiency of the feedback system, loss of personal focus and other emergent issues. It includes personal reflections on attitudes and perceptions, as well as group performance and strategies adopted in the second Simulation in order to create a more positive team experience. Theories which relate to interpersonal communication have also been integrated in the report to illustrate its relation to certain situations encountered during the Simulation. Additionally, we provide a multifaceted analysis on the notion of team cohesiveness and how it attributes to better performance outcomes. An overview on the different intragroup conflicts encountered in the Simulation has been included, examining the positive and negative impact that conflict had on team experience and performance, and how mutual agreements were......

Words: 287 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

Pom 333

...is a computer necessary in conducting a realworld simulation? Answer It is important because there are many different types of outcomes that comes in with simulation. Computers are used in daily life activities and it is necessary. 14-11 What is operational gaming? What is systems simulation? Give examples of how each may be applied. Answer Operational gaming is the use of simulation in competitive situations such as military games and business or management. System simulation ls that deal with the dynamics of large organizational or governmental systems. Validation The process of comparing a model to the real system that it represents to make sure that it is accurate. 14-17 (a) Resimulate the number of stockouts incurred over a 20-week period (assuming Higgins maintains a constant supply of 8 heaters). (b) Conduct this 20-week simulation two more times and compare your answers with those in part (a). Did they change significantly? Why or why not? (c) What is the new expected number of sales per week? Answer A. The number of stockouts incurred over a 20 week period is HOT WATER NUMBER OF HEATER SALES WEEKS THIS PER WEEK NUMBER WAS SOLD 3 2 4 9 5 10 6 15 7 25 8 12 9 12 10 10 B, Two more times would give us the value of a multiplied by 2. c. 25 14-18 A. 15 days of barge uploadings and average number of barges delayed B, They both are probabilistic simulations. Chapter 5 HW 5-14 Using MAD,......

Words: 648 - Pages: 3

Premium Essay

Student

...A SYSTEM SIMULATION STUDY ON THE THREE FAST MOVING PRODUCTS (MARLBORO, C2, VIVA) OF THE COLLEGE VARIETY SHOPPE USING THE MONTE CARLO SIMULATION IN INVENTORY MANAGEMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This study shows how the selected three fast moving products (Marlboro cigarettes, C2, Viva mineral water) move from the current Inventory Management technique of the College Variety Shoppe from its distributors to its warehouse storage to the end user or customer. An excel program and a simulation model was made to observed its current performance. After the observation, the group performs an experimentation that will improve the current technique of the College Variety Shoppe. After simulating the experimentation, the group then give conclusions and recommendations on how to improve the College Variety Shoppe’s current Inventory Management. TABLE OF CONTENTS Title Page ........................................................ 1 Executive Summary ........................................................ 2 Table of Contents ........................................................ 3 Introduction ........................................................ 4 Methodology ........................................................ 6 Model Development ........................................................ 7 Model Validation ........................................................ 11 Experimentation, Results .......

Words: 2096 - Pages: 9