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Southwestern University

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Submitted By fk001
Words 369
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TASK #13
1 . - D evelop a network drawing for Hill construction a nd determine the critical path. How long is the p roject expected to take?
Pessimistic
o

Expected time t=(a+4m+b)/6 Variance
V=[b-a/6]2

20

Most
Likely
m
30

40

30

11,11111111

B

20

65

80

60

100

C

50

60

100

65

69,44444444

D

30

50

100

55

136,1111111

E

25

30

35

30

2,777777778

F

0.1

0.1

0.1

0,1

0

G

25

30

35

30

2,777777778

H

10

20

30

20

11,11111111

I

20

25

60

30

44,44444444

J

8

10

12

10

0,444444444

K

0.1

0.1

0.1

0,1

0

L

20

25

60

30

44,44444444

Activity

Optimistic a A

The project is expected to take 260 days

2 . - W hat is the probability of finishing in 270 days?
Project variance is computed by summing the variances of critical activities: σ2p = 11,11111111 + 69,44444444 + 136,1111111 + 2,777777778 + 11,11111111 +
44,44444444 + 44,44444444 = 319.44444444
Project standard deviation

σp = 17.873 days
Probability of project completed before 270 days.
Z = ( 270– 260 ) / σp = 0.559 ≈ 0.56
From table 0.5 and 0.06  0.71226 = 71.23 %

3 . - I f it i s necessary to crash to 250 or 240 days, how w ould Hill do so, and at what costs?
To crash in 250 days the following activities must be reduced the time specified: A – 10 days
The total cost would be of $15.000 more than the initial budget.

In this case, the probability of project completed before 270 days would be: Z = ( 270– 250 ) / σp = 1.119 ≈ 1.12
From table 1.1 and 0.02  0.86864 = 86.86 %

To crash in 240 days the following activities must be reduced the time specified: D – 10 days
The total cost would be of $15.000 + $19.000 = $34.000 more than the initial budget.

In this case, the probability of project completed before 270 days would be: Z = ( 270– 240 ) / σp = 1.6785 ≈ 1.68
From table 1.6 and 0.08  0.95352 = 95.35 %

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