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CCST9039 Statistics and Our Society (2014-2015, 2nd Semester)
Prof. W. K. LI
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science The University of Hong Kong

Chapter 1: The Genesis of Statistics
Part 1/2: The Genesis of Statistics

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

1 / 17

(I) The Genesis of Statistics

What is Statistics ? Why bother ? Origin of the word same as “Status” = State
i.e. Collection of figures that describe the situation of the state

Ancient records of statistical activities: Babylon, the Old Testament, · · · · · · .

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

2 / 17

(I) The Genesis of Statistics
From the book of “Numbers” in the Old Testament (1300BC?) “And the Lord spake unto Moses in the wilderness of Sinai, in the tabernacle of the congregation, on the first day of the second month, in the second year . . . saying,

Take ye the sum of all the congregation to the children, after their families, by the house of their fathers, with the number of their names, every male by their polls; From twenty years old and upward, all that are able to go forth to war in Israel; thou and Aaron shall number them by their armies” A Census !
Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

(

) (Latin – “censere” means to tax)
CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd) Chapter 1, part 1/2 3 / 17

From Moore & Notz (2009) Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS) CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd) Chapter 1, part 1/2 4 / 17

(I) The Genesis of Statistics

The word “Statistics” was coined by the German Scholar Gottfried Achenwall around 1850. But it might have been used by Sir John Sinclair in the late 18th Century and might have appeared in Encyclopedia Britannica in 1797. The US constitution required that a census be conducted every 10 years. The first of such census took place in 1790.

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

5 / 17

(I) The Genesis of Statistics

In 17th century England there were interests in “political arithmetic” – analysis of birth and deaths records In 1662 there was the plague and John Graunt published a book “Natural and Political Observations on the Bills of Mortality” He obtained his information from records of baptisms and burials – called bills of mortality which had been in place in London since 1563 Graunt observed: of 100 new babies 36 of them die before they be six years old and that perhaps but one surviveth 76

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

6 / 17

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

7 / 17

Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life, 3rd Edition. Bennett, Briggs, Triola (2009)

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

8 / 17

Graunt’s work marks the beginning of the study of vital statistics Vital statistics – refer to data concerning births and deaths of a population Examples of vital statistics:
Birth rates, death rates, life expectancy, age-sex distribution (population pyramid), etc

Life expectancy is the number of year a person with a given age today can expect to live on average

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

9 / 17

(Bennett, Briggs and Triola, 2009)

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

10 / 17

(Bennett, Briggs and Triola, 2009)

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

11 / 17

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

12 / 17

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

13 / 17

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

14 / 17

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

15 / 17

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

16 / 17

Life Table and Insurance
Whenever you buy any kind of insurance, you are making a bet with the insurance company You are betting that something terrible might happen to you, and the company is betting that this will not happen Term insurance – a simple bet with the insurance company Premium is proportional to mortality rate + cost of issuing the policy Mortality rate is obtained from the life table Life table is important for policy making

Prof. W. K. LI (SAAS)

CCST9039 (14-15, 2nd)

Chapter 1, part 1/2

17 / 17

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