Premium Essay

Statistical Methodology for Profitable Sports Gambling

In: Other Topics

Submitted By absenty13
Words 12142
Pages 49
Profitable Sports Gambling
Fabián Enrique Moya
B.Sc., Anáhuac University, 2001
Project Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science

Statistical Methodology for

by

Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science Faculty of Science

in the

SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Summer 2012

© Fabián Enrique Moya 2012

All rights reserved. However, in accordance with the Copyright Act of Canada, this work may be reproduced, without authorization, under the conditions for “Fair Dealing.” Therefore, limited reproduction of this work for the purposes of private study, research, criticism, review and news reporting is likely to be in accordance with the law, particularly if cited appropriately.

Approval
Name: Degree: Title of Project: Examining Committee: Fabián Enrique Moya Master of Science (Applied Statistics) STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY FOR PROFITABLE SPORTS GAMBLING

Chair: Dr. Carl Schwarz, Professor

Dr. Tim Swartz Senior Supervisor Professor

Dr. Paramjit Gill Committee Member Professor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of British Columbia – Okanagan

Dr. Joan Hu External Examiner Professor

Date Defended/Approved: July 24, 2012 ii

Partial Copyright Licence
The author, whose copyright is declared on the title page of this work, has granted to Simon Fraser University the right to lend this thesis, project or extended essay to users if the Simon Fraser University Library, and to make partial or single copies only for such users or in response to a request from the library of any other university, or other educational institution, on its own behalf or for one of its users. The author has further granted permission to Simon Fraser University to keep or make a digital copy for use in its circulating collection (currently available to the public at the "Institutional Repository" link of

Similar Documents

Free Essay

Modelling Football Data

...other institution, this has been clearly stated. (3) Where I have used or consulted the published work of others, this is always clearly attributed. (4) Where I have quoted from the works of others, the source is always given. With the exception of such quotations, this dissertation is entirely my own work. (5) I have acknowledged all sources used for the purpose of this work. Signature: _______________________ Date: _______________________ Abstract Renzo Galea, B.Sc. (Hons.) Department of Statistics & Operations Research May 2011 University of Malta The main goal of this dissertation is to investigate the Bayesian modelling performance for football data. An extensive study of Markov processes and the Bayesian statistical approach is carried out. In particular, special reference is made to the radical Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling technique. Using real data from the Italian serie A championship, a Bayesian modelling application (as according to the rationale of professors Gianluca Baio and Martha A. Blangiardo) is...

Words: 15822 - Pages: 64

Premium Essay

Istisna Case Study

...with research specifically looking at the relevance of istisna’ for financing infrastructure projects, the potential barriers and strategies identification to implement in Malaysia. The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of the research conducted. It will discuss on the general ideas of the study. The points to be discussed in this chapter are: • Background to the research • Problem statement • Research aim and objectives • Scope of the research • Research questions • Methodology outline • Significance of the research • Structure of the research • Summary 1.2 Background to the research Infrastructure has become important in supporting a nation’s...

Words: 9614 - Pages: 39

Premium Essay

Islamic Finance

...Insurance K. M. Mortuza Ali 1 K. M. Mortuza Ali Managing Director Prime Islami Life Insurance Limited 29 Dilkusha C/A Raj Bhaban (6th Floor) Dhaka – 1000 Phone – 9560889, 9570729 (Off) 8353552 (Res) Mobile – 019-366617 Fax – 880-2-9564390 Email – plicl@bdonline.com kmortuza@bdmail.net 2 Chapter (I) Basic ideas about Risk & Insurance 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. What is Risk? How do we distinguish between pure risk and speculative risk ? How risk is handled? Why every risk is not insured? What are the characteristics of Insurable risks? What are the requisites of Insurance for Covering Risk? What are the Principles of Insurance contract? What are the different types of Life Insurance policies? How Insurance is different from Gambling? 10. What is the main function of insurance? 11. What is the greatest value of insurance? 12. What is the Purpose of Life Insurance? 13. How insurance protects value of life? 14. How life Insurance schemes meet the saving needs? 15. What are the social and economic values of Insurance? 16. What is the Actuarial principle of Life Insurance? 17. What is reinsurance? 18. What are the different methods of reinsurance? 1. What is Risk? Risk has been defined as the uncertainty as to the occurrence of an economic loss. It is the passivity of adverse result from a desired outcome. Risk and probability are not synonymous. We must understand the difference between risk and probability. The terms hazard and peril are closely related to probability...

Words: 44615 - Pages: 179

Free Essay

Hse Improvent to Reduce Unecessary Loss

...Essays on Productivity Analysis in the Canadian Tourism and Hospitality Industries by Xiaofeng Li A Thesis presented to The University of Guelph In partial fulfilment of requirements for the degree of |Doctor of Philosophy in Economics Guelph, Ontario, Canada © Xiaofeng Li, December, 2011 ABSTRACT ESSAYS ON PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS IN THE CANADIAN TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY INDUSTRIES Xiaofeng Li University of Guelph, 2011 Advisor: Professor David M Prescott This thesis is to investigate the relationship between the productivity in the Canadian tourism and hospitality industries and workforce characteristics, human resources management practice, technology change. The productivity analysis is conducted with different measures of productivity, such as labour productivity and total factor productivity. The first chapter is to calculate labour productivity using the Canadian National Tourism Indicator (NTI) and the Canadian Human Resource Module of Tourism Satellite Account (HRM) for six tourism industries during the period 1997-2008 and to estimate an econometric model of labour productivity. Labour productivity is found to increase with the capital labour ratio, the proportion of part-time hours, the share of immigrant workers and by the proportion of the most experienced workers. The second chapter decomposes the total factor productivity growth for the Canadian tourism/hospitality industries with dynamic factor demand models which is estimated with nonlinear Full Information...

Words: 39529 - Pages: 159

Premium Essay

Chapter 4 Managing Marketing Information to Gain Customer Insights

...Part 1: Defining Marketing and the Marketing Process (Chapters 1–2) Part 2: Understanding the Marketplace and Consumers (Chapters 3–6) Part 3: Designing a Customer-Driven Strategy and Mix (Chapters 7–17) Part 4: Extending Marketing (Chapters 18–20) 4 Marketing Information to Gain Managing Customer Insights Chapter Preview In this chapter, we continue our exploration of how marketers gain insights into consumers and the marketplace. We look at how companies develop and manage information about important marketplace elements: customers, competitors, products, and marketing programs. To succeed in today’s marketplace, companies must know how to turn mountains of marketing information into fresh customer insights that will help them deliver greater value to customers. Let’s start with a good story about marketing research and customer insights in action at P&G, one of the world’s largest and most re- spected marketing companies. P&G makes and markets a who’s who list of consumer megabrands, including the likes of Tide, Crest, Bounty, Charmin, Puffs, Pampers, Pringles, Gillette, Dawn, Ivory, Febreze, Swiffer, Olay, Cover Girl, Pantene, Scope, NyQuil, Duracell, and dozens more. The company’s stated purpose is to provide products that “improve the lives of the world’s consumers.” P&G’s brands really do create value for consumers by solving their problems. But to build meaningful relationships with customers, you first have to understand them and how...

Words: 26161 - Pages: 105

Premium Essay

Retail Banking

...Bangladesh. Today, banks realize the importance of Retail Banking and its potential to help them acquire new customers, retain existing ones and maximize their lifetime value. this report provides an overall view of Retail Banking services in Bangladesh. the services provided by Private Conventional Banks and the Islamic banks are mentioned. Followed by are the products that are being used to provide these services. A trend of the retail banking services is done in the analysis part of this report. The Islamic banking concept is being adopted by some of the Private Commercial Banks to generate better understanding of the customer for product development, segmentation, appropriate targeting, campaign management and maintenance of long term profitable and mutually beneficial relationships with customers. The concept of Islamic Banking has been implemented on a vast scale. To meet the objective of the report a trend analysis of the retail deposit indicators,retail deposits and loans and advances is done in the fifth part of the report. there growth is also shown with line graphs. A comparison is also made between the PCB's retail banking services and that of IB's. In part six findings are listed and some recommendations are also made accordingly. Table of Contents Sl No | Topic | Page No. | 1.0 | Introduction1.1 Objective of the report1.2 Methodology1.3 Limitations of the study | 7-9889 | 2.0 | Literature Review | 10-12 | 3.0 | History of Banking 3.1 Introduction to...

Words: 14653 - Pages: 59

Premium Essay

Ethical Issues in Consumer Behaviour

...COPYRIGHT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the copyright owner. This publication may not be lent, resold, hired or otherwise disposed of by any way of trade without the prior written consent of the copyright owner. ABOUT MUA MUA is a premier University in management, governance and leadership sponsored by The Kenya Institute of Management (KIM). The University was established on 2nd September 2011. Since then the University has established itself as a leader and local hub for Management, Leadership and Governance training in the Higher Education sector. The University offers market driven courses to spur economic growth and produce dynamic Managers and Leaders for Africa and the World. This module has been developed for use in the Management University of Africa ODEL Programme by Isabella Sile. She is a lecturer at the Management University of Africa, School of Management and Leadership. Ms. Sile is currently pursuing her PhD in Business Administration –Finance at The University of Nairobi. MODULE OVERVIEW. This module is developed for student taking the course unit “Risk and Insurance Management” in the Bachelor of Management and Leadership Programme. The module follows the outline given below. (Note: Assignments are issued...

Words: 24831 - Pages: 100

Free Essay

Kiki

...THE B L A C K SWAN The HIGHLY I mpact IM of the PROBABLE Nassim Nicholas Taleb U.S.A. $26.95 Canada $34.95 is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpre­ dictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9 / 1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. A BLACK SWAN Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate oppor­ tunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool our­ selves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this reve­ latory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers...

Words: 158140 - Pages: 633

Premium Essay

Book: Doc

...CAREERS IN MARKETING ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ INDUSTRY TRENDS AND RANKINGS POSITIONS AND RESPONSIBILITIES WORKPLACE CULTURE AND COMPENSATION THE RECRUITING PROCESS ★ INSIdER SCoop: FRoNT-LINE REpoRTS ★ GuIde Careers in Marketing 2008 EDITION InsIder Careers in Marketing WETFEET, INc. The Folger Building 101 Howard Street Suite 300 San Francisco, CA 94105 Phone: (415) 284-7900 or 1-800-926-4JOB Fax: (415) 284-7910 Website: www.wetfeet.com carEErs IN markETINg 2008 Edition ISBN: 978-1-58207-759-8 PhOTOcOPyINg Is PrOhIbITED Copyright 2008 WetFeet, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by the copyright laws of the United States of America. No copying in any form is permitted. It may not be reproduced, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, in part or in whole, without the express written permission of WetFeet, Inc. The publisher, author, and any other party involved in creation, production, delivery, or sale of this WetFeet Insider Guide make no warranty, express or implied, about the accuracy or reliability of the information found herein. To the degree you use this guide or other materials referenced herein, you do so at your own risk. The materials contained herein are general in nature and may not apply to particular factual or legal circumstances. Under no circumstances shall the publisher, author, or any other party involved in creation, production or delivery of this guide be liable to...

Words: 35682 - Pages: 143

Free Essay

Management Accountant

...The PRESIDENT Dr. H. R. Subramanya VICE PRESIDENT Pravakar Mohanty MEMBERS Dr. Sanjiban Bandyopadhyay, A. S. Durga Prasad, M. Gopalakrishnan, K. G. Goyal, D. V. Joshi, V. C. Kothari, Bibhabananda Majumder, B. M. Sharma, Rakesh Singh, Chandra Wadhwa, Dr. D. Jagannathan, N. K. Prasad, B. C. Malu, S.G.Y.Narayanan SECRETARY Dr. Debasis Bagchi DIRECTORS Examinations Chandana Bose cbicwai@vsnl.net Studies Swapan Dey sdicwai@vsnl.net Technical A. P. Kar icwai@vsnl.com Administration & Finance R. N. Pal rnicwai@vsnl.net Research & Journal Siddhartha Sen ssicwai@vsnl.net EDITOR Siddhartha Sen ssicwai@vsnl.net Editorial Office & Headquarters 12, Sudder Street, Kolkata-700 016 Phone : 2252-1031, 2252-1034, 2252-1035, 2252-1602, 2252-1492 Gram : STANDCOST, website : www.myicwai.com/www.icwai.org Membership Deptt. : kbicwai@vsnl.net Fax No. : 91-33-22527993/2252-1026 Delhi Office ICWAI Bhawan 3, Institutional Area, Lodi Road New Delhi-110003 Phone : 24631532, 24618645, 24643273, 24622156 Gram : STANDCOST, Fax : 91-11-24622156, 24631532, 24618645 E-mail : icwai@vsnl.com E-mail CEP : icwaiprgm@vsnl.net.in E-mail Journal Dept. : icwaijournal@hotmail.com « Official Organ of The Institute of Cost and Works Accountants of India Management Accountant Executive Digest Book Scan For Attention of Members For Attention of Practising Members Region & Chapter News Volume 40 No. 5 May 2005 Editorial & Communique Editorial : The ‘miracle’ of free trade 341 ......................................

Words: 53801 - Pages: 216

Free Essay

Cams

...Study Guide for the Certification Examination Fifth Edition ACAMS.org ACAMS.org/español ACAMSToday.org MoneyLaundering.com Study Guide for the Certification Examination Fifth Edition a publication of the association of certified anti-money laundering specialists Study Guide for the Certification Examination Fifth Edition Executive Vice President John J. Byrne, CAMS Editor Robert S. Pasley, CAMS Co-Editor Kevin M. Anderson, CAMS Contributors Joyce Broome, CAMS Heather Brown, CAMS Aub Chapman, CAMS Vasilios Chrisos, CAMS David Clark, CAMS Jurgen Egberink, CAMS Michael D. Kelsey, CAMS Saskia Rietbroek, CAMS Nancy J. Saur, CAMS Mansoor Siddiqi, CAMS Daniel Soto, CAMS Timothy White CAMS Production Assistant Catalina Martinez We would like acknowledge the following individuals for their contributions to the CAMS Exam, and the Online and Live Preparation Seminars: Kevin M. Anderson, CAMS Joyce Broome, CAMS Aub Chapman, CAMS David Clark, CAMS Josue Garcia, CAMS Hoi Luk, CAMS Ira Morales Mickunas, CAMS Robert S. Pasley, CAMS Karim Rajwani, CAMS Mansoor Siddiqi, CAMS Saskia Rietbroek, CAMS Ed Rodriguez, CAMS Nancy J. Saur, CAMS Wendy Steichen, CAMS Brian J. Stoeckert, CAMS Charles Taylor, CAMS Will Voorhees, CAMS Natalie Ware, CAMS Peter Warrack, CAMS Amy Wotapka, CAMS Crispin Yuen, CAMS Copyright © 2012 by the Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists (ACAMS). Miami, USA. All rights...

Words: 105184 - Pages: 421

Premium Essay

Researching and Writing

.... ReseaRching and WRiting a disseRtation a guidebook foR business students Colin Fisher second edition . Researching and Writing a Dissertation: A Guidebook for Business Students . We work with leading authors to develop the strongest educational materials in management, bringing cutting-edge thinking and best learning practice to a global market. Under a range of well-known imprints, including Financial Times Prentice Hall, we craft high-quality print and electronic publications which help readers to understand and apply their content, whether studying or at work. To find out more about the complete range of our publishing, please visit us on the World Wide Web at: www.pearsoned.co.uk . Researching and Writing a Dissertation: A Guidebook for Business Students Second edition Colin Fisher with John Buglear Diannah Lowry Alistair Mutch Carole Tansley . Pearson Education Limited Edinburgh Gate Harlow Essex CM20 2JE England and Associated Companies throughout the world Visit us on the World Wide Web at: www.pearsoned.co.uk First published 2004 Second edition 2007 © Pearson Education Limited 2004 © Pearson Education Limited 2007 The right of Colin Fisher to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical...

Words: 142971 - Pages: 572

Free Essay

Alakajs

...PINOY INTERNET: PHILIPPINES CASE STUDY March 2002 INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION UNION GENEVA, SWITZERLAND This report has been written by Michael Minges, Esperanza Magpantay, Lucy Firth and Tim Kelly of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). The report is based on field research carried out between 1 – 5 October 2001 as well as articles and publications sourced in the document. The National Telecommunications Commission provided incalculable support; without their assistance, this report would not have been possible. Equally, the report would not have been possible without the cooperation of the many from the Filipino public and private ICT sector who offered their time to the report’s authors. The kind hospitality of Philippine Electronics and Telecommunications Federation (PETEF) is also acknowledged. We would also like to thank N. Santiago of Globe and A. Bengzon, Undersecretary for Communications, for their insightful comments. The report is one of a series of case studies examining the Internet in South East Asia carried out in 2001. Additional information is available on the ITU’s Internet Case Study web page at http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/cs/. The report may not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU, its members or the government of the Republic of the Philippines. The title refers to the Filipino (Tagalog) word “Pinoy” meaning ‘Filipinos by Heart.’ The SMS message appearing on the mobile phone screen (“Kmusta txt k nman”) is also in Tagalog and means...

Words: 28120 - Pages: 113

Premium Essay

Probability

...DeChavez Senior Author Support/Technology Specialist: Joe Vetere Rights and Permissions Advisor: Michael Joyce Senior Manufacturing Buyer: Carol Melville Production Coordination: Lifland et al. Bookmakers Composition: Keying Ye Cover photo: Marjory Dressler/Dressler Photo-Graphics Many of the designations used by manufacturers and sellers to distinguish their products are claimed as trademarks. Where those designations appear in this book, and Pearson was aware of a trademark claim, the designations have been printed in initial caps or all caps. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Probability & statistics for engineers & scientists/Ronald E. Walpole . . . [et al.] — 9th ed. p. cm. ISBN 978-0-321-62911-1 1. Engineering—Statistical methods. 2. Probabilities. I. Walpole, Ronald E. TA340.P738 2011 519.02’462–dc22 2010004857 Copyright c 2012, 2007, 2002 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the...

Words: 201669 - Pages: 807

Premium Essay

Abcd

...Enablers of Exuberance Jennifer S. Taub Sept. 4, 2009 DISCUSSION DRAFT Enablers of Exuberance: Legal Acts and Omissions that Facilitated the Global Financial Crisis Jennifer S. Taub1 I. Introduction This paper explores certain legal acts and omissions that facilitated the over-leveraging and near collapse of the global financial system. These ―Legal Enablers‖ fostered the boom that enriched a class of financial intermediaries who followed a storied tradition of gambling away ―other people‘s money.‖2 These mechanisms also made the pain of the bust disproportionately felt by the middle class and poor while shielding the middlemen who created the problems. These legal Enablers permitted the growth of a shadow banking system, without investment limits, transparency or government oversight. In the shadows grew a variety of highly leveraged private investment pools, undercapitalized conduits of securitized loans and speculation in complex credit derivatives. The rationale for allowing this unregulated, parallel system was that it helped to create innovation and provide liquidity. The conventional wisdom was that any risks associated with a hands-off approach could be managed by the ―invisible hand‖3 of the market. In other words, instead of public police, it relied upon private gatekeepers. A legal framework including legislation, rules and court decisions supported this system. This legal structure depended upon corporate managers, counterparties, ―sophisticated investors‖ and the...

Words: 54952 - Pages: 220