...Hypothesis ABSTRACT The random walk hypothesis is a key instrument used in the analysis of forecasting in the economic and financial market. It is used primarily in the forecasting of the prices of stocks. This is useful to determine and forecast the prices of stocks given previous stock prices. This paper discusses the basis of the hypothesis, the two types of random walk hypothesis, its framework, methodologies and the analysis of its repercussions. INTRODUCTION The random walk hypothesis states that stock price changes have the same distribution and are independent of one another, so the past movement or trend of a stock price or of the market as a whole cannot be used to predict its future price or any possible future trends. The concept originated in the late 1800s from Jules Regnault, a French broker, and Louis Bachelier, a French mathematician, whose Ph.D. dissertation titled "The Theory of Speculation". The same ideas were later developed and studied further by Paul Cootner, an MIT Sloan School of Management professor, in his 1964 book The Random Character of Stock Market Prices. The term was popularized by the 1973 book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, by Burton Malkiel, a professor of economics at Princeton University, and was used earlier in Eugene Fama's 1965 article "Random Walks In Stock Market Prices”. The theory that stock prices move randomly was earlier proposed by Maurice Kendall in his 1953 paper, “The Analytics of Economic Time Series, Part 1: Prices”...
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...exchange and stock markets for India, Samanta and Nath (2003) employed the Granger causality test on daily data during the period March 1993 to December 2002. The empirical findings of the study suggest that these two markets did not have any causal relationship. When the study extended its analysis to verily if liberalization in both the markets brought them together, it found no significant causal relationship between the exchange rate and stock price movements, except for the years l993, 2001 and 2002 during when a unidirectional causal influence from stock index return to return in forex market is detected and a very mild causal influence in the reverse direction is...
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...Outline Abstract The global financial crisis in 2007 started in mortgage market then quickly went to the every other corner of the economies. The most well known reason for the collapse of financial system was investor’s confidence. Investors in stock market have taken a huge a mount of money out of stock market and destroyed liquidity of the market. Without the advantage of liquidity, every stock began to fall. The panic of investors came from the anticipation of the future market. This paper will investigate if the stock price correctly reflected the health of business or it was only the fear of investors. I will use the most famous market indicator: Down Jones Index and net profit from incomes statement of 30 stocks in Down Jones Index. Down Jones index uses 30 large value stocks in the market to represent the entire market. We expect to see if the Down Jones Index line shared the trend with the profit of 30 companies in Down Jones index. Introduction Financial Market during the Great Recession “It is well known that the Lehman Brothers’ default severly increased counterparty risk because the failed company had $729 billion of notional derivative contracts” From:STOCK MARKET REACTION TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: TESTING FOR THE LEHMAN BROTHERS' EVENT by Leonardo Becchetti and Rocco Ciciretti “Probably, it is the largest crisis after great recession of 1930s that has affected both real and financial sectors (Llanto and Badiola, 2010). This crisis originated...
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...CHAPTER 7 Stocks, Stock Valuation, and Stock Market Equilibrium 1 Topics in Chapter Features of common stock Valuing common stock Preferred stock Stock market equilibrium Efficient markets hypothesis Implications of market efficiency for financial decisions 2 The Big Picture: The Intrinsic Value of Common Stock Free cash flow (FCF) Dividends (Dt) D2 D1 D∞ + + ... + (1 + rs )1 (1 + rs)2 (1 + rs)∞ ValueStock = Market interest rates Market risk aversion Cost of equity (rs) Firm’s debt/equity mix Firm’s business risk Common Stock: Owners, Directors, and Managers Represents ownership. Ownership implies control. Stockholders elect directors. Directors hire management. Since managers are “agents” of shareholders, their goal should be: Maximize stock price. 4 Classified Stock Classified stock has special provisions. Could classify existing stock as founders’ shares, with voting rights but dividend restrictions. New shares might be called “Class A” shares, with voting restrictions but full dividend rights. 5 Tracking Stock The dividends of tracking stock are tied to a particular division, rather than the company as a whole. Investors can separately value the divisions. Its easier to compensate division managers with the tracking stock. But tracking stock usually has no voting rights, and the financial disclosure for the division is not as regulated as for the company. 6 Different...
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...Indian market overview: How stock market works? If you'd like to buy a share of stock in any publicly traded company you'll most likely need the services of a brokerage firm. Though it's possible to buy and sell shares of stock on your own, there are some practical and legal problems with this approach. The securities industry is highly regulated, so you can't just hang a shingle and start selling stocks to the general public, unless you're properly registered and licensed. A brokerage firm is a dealer of stocks and other securities that acts as your agent when you want to buy or sell stocks. Most trading of stocks happens on a stock exchange. These are special markets where buyers and sellers are brought together to buy and sell stocks. The best known stock exchanges are the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange. The Bombay Stock Exchange is one of the largest stock exchanges in the world, listing over 4,500 companies. The BSE SENEX is the major stock index of the Bombay exchange, comparable to the DOW industrials in the US. The National Stock Exchange of India is also based in Mumbai (Mumbai used to be called Bombay) and regularly trades in volumes exceeding that of the Bombay Stock Exchange. The main stock index of the National Stock Exchange of India is the S&P CNX Nifty, or just Nifty for short. Apart from equities, the NSE also deals with trades of futures, debt and foreign currencies. When most people think of a stock exchange, they picture a scene of...
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...=Average and =STDEV functions Measuring Standalone Risk: Coefficient of Variation Coefficient of variation = CV=σr Risk Aversion and Required Rate of Return Assume risk aversion for investors Textbook Example: Basic Food’s Price up to $150 from $100 Sale.com Price down to $75 from 100. Difference in return, 20%-10%= Risk Premium Risk in Portfolio Context Expected return on portfolio=Weighted expected return=rp=i=1nwiri Portfolio Risk Stocks can be combined into portfolios which then become less risky to riskless depending on the correlation of the assets. Stocks with a ρ=-1 are perfectly negatively correlated. The inverse is positively correlated. Expected ρ also called R = t=1n(ri,t-ri,Avg)(rj,t-rj,Avg)[t=1n(ri,t-ri,Avg)2][t=1n(rj,t-rj,Avg)2] Where i and j are stocks ri,t is the actual return for stock i in period t and ri,Avgis average return during n period sample Or just use =CORREL function in Excel Diversification does NOTHING to reduce risk if stocks are perfectly positive correlated!!! Diversifiable Risk VS Market Risk Almost...
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...of capital market in Bangladesh mainly started with the beginning of trading activities of Dhaka Stock Exchange. It first incorporated as East Pakistan Stock Exchange Association Ltd in 28 April 1954 and started formal trading in 1956. It was renamed as East Pakistan Stock Exchange Ltd in 23 June 1962. Again in 13 May 1964 it was renamed as Dacca Stock Exchange Ltd. After the liberation war in 1971 the trading was discontinued for five years. In 1976 trading restarted in Bangladesh. In 16 September 1986 was started. The formula for calculating DSE all share price index was changed according to IFC in 1 November 1993. The automated trading was initiated in 10 August 1998. In 1 January 2001 was started. Central Depository System was initiated in 24 January 2004. As of November 16, 2009, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) crossed 4000 points for the first time, because of the debut of Grameen Phone in DSE. From the year 2007 the market capitalization is growing at a constant pace. The market is growing both in capitalization and trading volume. The growth is fueled by increased demand for financial assets and influx of liquid money. The growth is outpacing the growth of the national economy. Sudden rise of capitalization in DSE has raised the question, whether the growth has been healthy and market is functioning in a justifiable manner. [pic] Because economic development of a country is deeply related the development of country. If the market grows and...
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...* Firms that sell stock that is traded in financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange are called public firms, whereas firms that do not sell stock are called private firms. * Sole proprietorship A firm owned by a single individual and not organized as a corporation. * Partnership A firm owned jointly by two or more persons and not organized as a corporation. * Corporation A legal form of business that provides owners with protection from losing more than their investment should the business fail. * Unlimited liability means there is no legal distinction between the personal assets of the owners of the firm and the assets of the firm. * Asset Anything of value owned by a person or a firm * Limited liability The legal provision that shields owners of a corporation from losing more than they have invested in the firm. * * Profit is the difference between revenue and the total cost to a firm of producing the goods and services it offers for sale. * Corporate governance The way in which a corporation is structured and the effect that structure has on the corporation’s behavior. * Corporate Structure and Corporate Governance * Shareholders are the owners of a corporation’s stock whose interests are represented by a board of directors who appoints a chief executive officer (CEO) to run the day-to-day operations of the corporation and sometimes other members of top management, such as the chief financial officer (CFO). Members...
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...Bangladesh Economic Update Capital Market March 2012 Bangladesh Economic Update Volume 4, No. 3, March 2013 Acknowledgement: Bangladesh Economic Update is a monthly publication of the Economic Policy Unit of the Unnayan Onneshan, a multidisciplinary research organisation based in Dhaka, Bangladesh. A team, under the guidance of Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, comprising Md. Aslam Hossain and Shahid Md. Adnan prepared the report. © Copyright: Unnayan Onneshan The content of this publication may be reproduced for non-commercial purposes with proper citation (please send output to the address mentioned below). Any other form of reproduction, storage in a retrieval system or transmission by any means for commercial purposes, requires permission from the Unnayan Onneshan. For orders and request, please contact: Unnayan Onneshan 16/2, Indira Road, Farmgate Dhaka-1215, Bangladesh Tell: + (880-2) 8158274, 9110636 Fax: + (880-2) 8159135 E-mail: info@unnayan.org Web: www.unnayan.org Bangladesh Economic Update, March 2013 2|P a g e Bangladesh Economic Update Volume 4, No. 3, March 2013 Economic Policy Unit Unnayan Onneshan 1. INTRODUCTION The capital market of Bangladesh is the third largest in the South Asia and one of the smallest in Asia. There are two full-fledged automated stock exchanges: Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE). After many years of operations of the exchanges, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) was established...
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...Market Efficiency and the Johannesburg Securities Exchange Table of Contents 1. Abstract 3 2. Introduction 4 3. The Johannesburg Securities Exchange 4 3.1. History 4 3.2. Function 5 4. The Efficient Market Hypothesis 5 4.1. Strong From 6 4.2. Semi-strong form 6 4.3. Weak form 7 4.4. Random Walk Hypothesis 8 5. Empirical evidence 9 5.1. Joint Hypothesis Problem 10 5.2. Capital Asset Pricing Model 11 5.3. Empirical evidence on investor overreaction 12 6. Comparisons to international stock markets 13 7. Conclusion 15 9. Bibliography 16 1. Abstract The JSE is a securities exchange based in South Africa and is considered to be the largest on the African continent. More than 400 stocks are traded on the JSE and as a result, it is important that investors are aware of the relevant information regarding stocks, which would enable investors to make sound investments. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is used to ascertain whether certain stocks and their respective prices in a particular market reflect all necessary information, which would illustrate an efficient market (Fama, 1970). Carrado and Jordan (2000) supports the aforementioned statement by affirming that markets are efficient in terms of sources of specific information, on condition that information is not exploited to earn above average returns. Furthermore, Fama (1965) explained the efficiency of markets and their stock prices by analyzing the three forms of...
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...BASIC TOOLS OF FINANCE WHAT’S NEW IN THE SIXTH EDITION: There are two new In the News boxes on “A Cartoonist’s Guide to Stock Picking” and “Is the Efficient Markets Hypothesis Kaput?” LEARNING OBJECTIVES: By the end of this chapter, students should understand: the relationship between present value and future value. the effects of compound growth. how risk-averse people reduce the risk they face. how asset prices are determined. CONTEXT AND PURPOSE: Chapter 27 is the third chapter in a four-chapter sequence on the level and growth of output in the long run. In Chapter 25, we discuss how capital and labor are among the primary determinants of output and growth. In Chapter 26, we addressed how saving and investment in capital goods affect the production of output. In Chapter 28, we will show some of the tools people and firms use when choosing capital projects in which to invest. Because both capital and labor are among the primary determinants of output, Chapter 28 will address the market for labor. The purpose of Chapter 27 is to introduce the students to some tools that people use when they participate in financial markets. We will show how people compare different sums of money at different points in time, how they manage risk, and how these concepts combine to help determine the value of a financial asset, such as a share of stock. KEY POINTS: Because savings can earn interest, a sum of money today is more valuable than the same sum of money in the...
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...there be any impact on liquidity or volatility 4 4. Analysis 5 5.Impact on Liquidity 10 Conclusion: 13 References 14 1. Introduction Increasing globalization in the last decade has made Indian financial markets more integrated with the rest of the world. As a result, many Indian companies have gone for raising funds in foreign capital markets by way of issuing ADRs and GDRs. Though cross listing is viewed positively by many corporations, many researchers have shown that changes in liquidity and volatility may affect quality negatively in the domestic markets. Since companies from emerging markets go for raising funds from foreign liquid markets, some policymakers fear that if allowed unrestricted, this may impact the development of local equity markets and hence prove disastrous for emerging markets. Existing studies show that effect of foreign listing depends on factors specific to firms, market and country. Indian GDRs trade on European exchanges and ADRs trade on US exchanges. Also, since US requires higher quality disclosures than Europe, cost of listing in US markets is higher. 2. Regulatory Framework As part of its economic liberalization policy in 1992, Indian government allowed Indian companies to raise money from foreign capital markets in the form of DRs. These DRs can be denominated in any currency and can be listed on any foreign exchange. Recently, government has also allowed two-way fungibility of DRs. Earlier only one way fungibility was allowed...
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...The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in China Mengyuan Chen Illinois Wesleyan University Dec 10, 2012 Abstract This paper uses the data of RMB exchange rates and stock market prices in China from 1994 to 2011 to estimate the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates. There are two major theories concerning the relationship. According to the portfolio balance effect, these two variables should be negatively related; in addition, according to the international trading effect theory, these two variables should be positively related. The linear regression model is adopted to observe the various relationships between stock and foreign exchange markets. The results confirmed my hypothesis, which indicates that the international trading effect is more dominant, thus the net effect is a positive causal relationship from exchange rates to stock prices. I. Introduction Within the emerging Chinese market, China now has more open policies and advanced financial market instruments to promote globalization. For example, China started to allow the RMB to float within a larger daily range in 2005 and brought derivative options into the stock market. These significant steps all suggest that China is beginning to face a new economic condition. For instance, the challenging policy making of RMB exchange rate is one. Exchange rates and stock prices are both key indicators of the economy and financial markets. So the relationship between those two becomes an...
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...improving the living standards of people. Lets start with the Capital Market in India first. Capital Market is a market in which individuals and institutions trade financial securities. The securities are sold off and bought in capital market for raising the funds (Investopedia, 2013). Capital Market includes both primary and secondary market. Capital market helps in proper channelization of funds and helps raising long- term funds. This kind of market is a continuous market and provides variety of services. The market where new securities are bought and sold for the first time is known as Primary Market. Types of issue in Primary Market may be through public offer (where shares are offered to general public), bonus issue, Follow- on public offers, private placement (intermediaries sell shares to selected clients at higher price), right offer (shares are offered to existing shareholders) etc. It helps in providing additional capital to issuer companies. Secondary Capital Market is a market where existing securities are bought and sold. Secondary market offers liquidity, which encourages even those investors to invest who wants to invest for small period of time. Secondary market is also known as Stock Exchange, which is an organized body of individuals for purpose of controlling and regulating the buying and selling of securities (App-1). In India there are 24 recognized stock exchanges out of which National Stock Exchange of India (NSEI) and Over the Counter Exchange of India are...
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...company's own stock, based on material non-public information, are considered to be fraudulent since the insiders are violating the fiduciary duty that they owe to the shareholders. The corporate insider, simply by accepting employment, has undertaken a legal obligation to the shareholders to put the shareholders' interests before their own, in matters related to the corporation. When the insider buys or sells based upon company owned information, he is violating his obligation to the shareholders. For example, illegal insider trading would occur if the chief executive officer of Company A learned (prior to a public announcement) that Company A will be taken over and then bought shares in Company A while knowing that the share price would likely rise. In the United States and many other jurisdictions, however, "insiders" are not just limited to corporate officials and major shareholders where illegal insider trading is concerned but can include any individual who trades shares based on material non-public information in violation of some duty of trust. This duty may be imputed; for example, in many jurisdictions, in cases of where a corporate insider "tips" a friend about non-public information likely to have an effect on the company's share price, the duty the corporate insider owes the company is now imputed to the friend and the friend violates a duty to the company if the corporate insider trades on the basis of this information. Are Financial Markets Efficient? ...
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