...Regression Analysis for Determining the Price of Alcan Stock [pic] Jason Scott May 1, 2006 Introduction In this project, we have developed a model using stepwise regression to predict the price of Alcan’s stock, based on the impact of eight independent variables on the price of Alcan’s stock. The company’s stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker symbol AL. Of the eight variables we will be looking at, we are most interested in the impact that the price of aluminum has on Alcan’s stock. Alcan is the second largest producer of aluminum in the world, and may be one of the purest plays on aluminum, given that Alcan spent the mid 1990’s spinning off all operations not involved with the production of aluminum. If any company would reflect the impact of the change in aluminum prices, it would be Alcan. Additionally, we have a keen interest in this field as both of us are employees of a company recently spun-off from Alcan. The eight independent variables that we chose for our analysis, and our reasons for choosing them, are detailed below. Definition of Variables Dependant Variable Alcan (ALCAN) The dependent variable for our model is the monthly stock price of Alcan. Alcan is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker symbol AL. The stock price is collected daily and these daily numbers are averaged together to give one monthly value. We have collected the monthly...
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...fundamental and technical analysis will give better result than just using one of them as an analysis method. Upon answering the research question, researchers went through a deductive cross-sectional study by surveying companies in the Indonesia stock exchange to explain the effect of using both technical and fundamental analysis to analyze the price fluctuation of stocks. The data collection method is quantitative data collection by taking the sample of 5 companies from 5 different sector industries and then analyze the data gathered using the proposed analyzing technique: technical and fundamental analysis method. Keywords : Technical analysis, Fundamental analysis, Stock price I. Introduction Like any other countries around the world, Indonesia has a financial market that consists of several investment choices available for public, such as: Stocks, Bonds, Foreign Exchange, Futures, etc. Those investment choices have different level of liquidity, risk and return profile. Stocks are one of the basic types of investment based on the corporate venture. Moreover stocks are popular for Indonesian investors and traders because it gives more return compared to bank savings or corporate bonds. There are two ways to analyze the price movement of stocks in a certain amount of time which more known as technical and fundamental analysis. There are some traders who are just using one of them in trading the stocks, and some using both of them. In his book, Stock Investing Wisdom, Desmond...
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...ANNEXURE - C “TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF STOCKS ” This project report in the Special Studies in Finance based on the in-depth study of the project theme is submitted in February, 2014 to the Sydenham Institute of Management Studies and Research and Entrepreneurship Education (SIMSREE) , B - Road, Churchgate, Mumbai - 400 020, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the Master’s Degree, Masters in Management Studies (MMS), Submitted By NAME: VAISHALI CHANDRESH GORATELA ROLL NO. : M12020 CLASS: MMS1 BATCH: 2012-2014 Guided By MR. AMIT BOBHATE Date: Place: MUMBAI ANNEXURE – D CERTIFICATE This is to certify that this project report entitled “TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF STOCKS” is submitted in February, 2014 to Sydenham Institute of Management Studies and Research and Entrepreneurship Education (SIMSREE) , Mumbai 400020, by Ms. Vaishali Goratela bearing Roll No. M12020, batch (2012 - 2014) in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the Master’s Degree, Masters in Management Studies (MMS). This is a record of her own work carried out under my guidance. She has discussed with me adequately before compiling the above work and I am satisfied with the quality, originality and depth of the work for the above qualification. PLACE: MUMBAI. ________________ DATE: (Signature...
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...operational efficiency emphasizes how well things function in an organization with respect to speed of execution and accuracy. In an stock exchange situation where efficiency is paramount, this is measured by factors such the numbers of orders lost and/or filled incorrectly. And importantly the time elapsed between receiving an order and its execution. People involved in this field are very aware of this and attempt to streamline their operation to mitigate errors and to achieve operational efficiency. But EMH has nothing to do with this type of efficiency. Informational Efficiency refers to how quickly and accurately current security prices reflect all available information. All sort of information – economic reports, earnings forecasts, political announcements, opinions – is constantly enters the market. What affect does this have on security prices? And what does it mean? For example, unemployment is rising; is it good or bad for government securities holder. Or a company’s new about its merging with another! There are several of these questions and they have impact on some security or other. The question is how quickly they impact security prices. We know that in the US market (so far without the government regulation) security prices adjust rapidly and accurately to information and often without time to digest it. Often the speed with which the prices adjust is simply remarkable. The efficient market hypothesis is based on certain assumptions which in turn our market efficient...
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...1: Valuing Coca Cola stock Executive Summary The case that has been presented is a valuation of Coca Cola, its current stock price, and whether Coca Cola has the potential to be a good recommendation for clients to add to their portfolios. The analysis herein takes into account historical Coca Cola financial information, and uses the information to ascertain whether or not Coca Cola, at its current stock price of $58.00 a share, is a viable security for investors to add to their portfolios. Methodologies The completed analysis of Coca Cola’s investment potential required the use of a few calculations to gather enough information regarding the selling price of its stock. The first of these calculations used is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (Exhibit 1). This model was used to calculate the required rate of return for an investor in Coca Cola. In this calculation, Beta was set at 1.24, and the risk free rate was set at the 30-year government bond rate of 6.22%. The market risk premium was set at the stated 6.00% rate, resulting in a required rate of return of 13.66%. Once this required rate of return was calculated, the Dividend Discount Model (Exhibit 2) was used to calculate a forecasted 1997 stock price for Coca Cola. Using the required rate of return of 13.66%, a forecasted dividend of $0.62, and the expected constant dividend growth rate of 12% for this calculation, the model has forecasted a 1997 stock price of $37.35. For this analysis, a P/E ratio calculation...
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...“Technical Analysis of Selected Stocks with reference to Kotak Securities” Ltd, Mysore. By, SHARATH KUMAR M 4GW13MBA45 Submitted to VISVESVARAYA TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY, BELGAUM In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Under the Guidance of INTERNAL GUIDE EXTERNAL GUIDE Ms. USHA B Assistant Professor GSSS Centre for PG Studies & Research Mysore Mr. Anil Kumar Branch manager Kotak Securites ltd, Mysore GSSS CENTRE FOR PG STUDIES & RESEARCH Department of Management KRS ROAD, MYSORE - 570016 2013-2015 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS A Project study of this nature calls for professional help and guidance from all quarters....
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...– Banking sector & Stock Exchange and Conceptual framework – Macroeconomic variable |3.1 An overview of Banking sector and Stock market of Bangladesh | We are interested in investigating the relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables because individual investors can earn abnormal profits by exploiting this relationship and the existence of this utilizable opportunity would then dangerously distort the market’s ability to proficiently allocate scarce resources. In other word, the stock market will lose its informational efficiency. Informational efficiency is defined as at any given time, stock prices fully reflect all available information of the market. Thus, no investor has an advantage in predicting a return on a stock price because no one has access to information not already available to everyone else. Identifying the relationship or informational efficiency thus can be used to correct the current economic stabilization policies. Therefore, the issue of whether stock prices and macroeconomic variables are related or not have received considerable attention. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between stock prices with each of the macroeconomic variables: exchange rate, inflation rate, money supply variables and so on. The knowledge of the prevailing relationship between stock prices one the one hand, and micro variables like market price/ earnings, growth rate...
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...1 March, 2013 The Fundamental Analysis: An Overview Sónia R. Bentes#, Raúl Navas* ISCAL, Av. Miguel Bombarda 20, 1069-035 Lisbon, Portugal smbentes@iscal.ipl.pt * COPORGEST, SA, Av. da Liberdade 245, 9º C 1250-143Lisbon, Portugal rdnavas@gmail.com Abstract - In this paper we discuss the fundamental analysis by covering a number of studies in this field of research. This constitutes a useful tool to evaluate the companies’ financial performance. Particularly, the discussion in this paper illustrates how this kind of approach can help in analyzing a companies’ stock price. Additionally, a debate on its potentialities is also provided. Keywords – Fundamental Analysis, Return on Equity, Return on Investment, Price Earnings Ratio, Price to Book Value # foreign competition in a particular sector in order to identify the best company of the sector. ii) Bottom-up approach: in this method, the analyst starts the searching analysis within a specific sector irrespective of its industry/region. The fundamental analysis is carried out with the aim of predicting company’s future performance. It is based on the belief that the market price of an asset tends to move towards its “real value” or its “intrinsic value”. Thus, if the intrinsic value of an asset is higher than its market value, there may be a situation where it is time to buy. Otherwise, investors should sell. In the next section, the theoretical framework of the fundamental analysis is reviewed. The paper ends with a...
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...Important features of stock chart analysis Overall Trend: The first step is to identify the overall trend. This can be accomplished with trend lines, moving averages or peak/trough analysis. As long as the price remains above its uptrend line, selected moving averages or previous lows, the trend will be considered bullish. Support: Areas of congestion or previous lows below the current price mark support levels. A break below support would be considered bearish. Resistance: Areas of congestion and previous highs above the current price mark the resistance levels. A break above resistance would be considered bullish. Momentum: Momentum is usually measured with an oscillator such as MACD. If MACD is above its 9-day EMA (exponential moving average) or positive, then momentum will be considered bullish, or at least improving. Buying/Selling Pressure: For stocks and indices with volume figures available, an indicator that uses volume is used to measure buying or selling pressure. When Chaikin Money Flow is above zero, buying pressure is dominant. Selling pressure is dominant when it is below zero. Relative Strength: The price relative is a line formed by dividing the security by a benchmark. For stocks it is usually the price of the stock divided by the S&P 500. The plot of this line over a period of time will tell us if the stock is outperforming (rising) or under performing (falling) the major index. The final step is to synthesize the above analysis to ascertain the following: ...
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...SYMBIOSIS SCHOOL OF BANKING MANAGEMENT Constituent of symbiosis International University Accredited by NAAC with ‘A’ Grade Established under Section 3 of the UGC Act, 1956, vide notification No: F.9.12/2001-U-3of the Government of India. IMPORTANCE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN DETERMINING MOVEMENT OF PRICE IN EQUITY STOCK MARKET Internship Report submitted to SIU in partial completion of the requirement of MBA Banking Management at Symbiosis School of Banking Management Pune-412115. NAME OF THE STUDENT: PROJECT MENTOR (SSBM) PROJECT MENTOR / PRN: REPORTING OFFICER (AT THE BANK) ABHISHEK AGRAWAL DR. BINDYA KOHLI AMOL ATHAWALE PRN: 12020941031 APRIL 08 2013 TO MAY 25 2013 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I sincerely and religiously devote this Research Paper to all the gem of persons who have openly or silently left an ineradicable mark on this research so that they may be brought into consideration and given their share of credit, which they genuinely and outstandingly deserve. This expedition of research...
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...Project Evaluation Corporate Finance 2013-2014 The 14 essays convey many interesting ideas. I am very impressed by some analysis which gives very technical and detailed description. These works have shown that you have great potential to go further, either to a comprehensive report for practical consultancy or to deepen the knowledge for academic research. However, there are some problems that I must mention for your future work. • Lack of theoretical foundations: Some reports just filled the paper with lots of facts, figures and data. The question follows is often “and so what?” The report will be more scientific based if you provide some explanations linking to the theories and interpretations we learned in the class. Present your shining points first: Many reports just give the introduction as a general description of the background of the selected companies. However, a more important part expected in these reports is your research questions and key points of analysis. If you don’t highlight the shining points from the beginning, you make your report less worthy of further reading. Coordination problem: I found some reports give strongly contradict results. I understand that you just share the task among the team members. But at least you must have something complete and logically right. Avoid using abbreviations for words that are less frequently used (eg. ADS, ROI, OTC…). If you insist to use, please write the full words for the first time you employ them. Reference of...
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...7E7 Empirical Data 7E7 Project NPV –DCF Analysis WACC Calculation Payback Period Stock Options @ Risk Analysis Conclusion References Page 1 4 5 7 11 12 22 23 24 Table of Tables Table Number Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6 Table 7 Table 8 Table 9 Table 10 Table 11 Table 12 Table 13 Table 14 Table 15 Table 16 Table 17 Table 18 Table 19 Table 20 Table 21 Table 22 Table 23 Table 24 Content DCF Analysis Variables Regression Analysis WACC Calculations Payback Period Depreciation Call Option - NYSE Call Option - S&P 500 Put Option - NYSE Put Option - S&P 500 Sell A Call - NYSE Sell A Call - S&P 500 Sell A Put - NYSE Sell A Put - S&P 500 Covered Call - NYSE Covered Call - S&P 500 Protective Put - NYSE Protective Put - S&P 500 Protective Collar - NYSE Protective Collar - S&P 500 Long Straddle - NYSE Long Straddle - S&P 500 Short Straddle - NYSE Short Straddle - S&P 500 Table of Exhibits List of exhibits Exhibit A Exhibit B Exhibit C Exhibit D Exhibit E Exhibit F Exhibit G Exhibit H Exhibit I Exhibit J Exhibit K Exhibit L Exhibit M Exhibit N Exhibit O @ RISK Sensitivity analysis Change in Stock Price - NYSE Payback Period - NYSE Change in Stock Price – S&P 500 Payback Period – S&P 500 Call...
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...hypothesis is a key instrument used in the analysis of forecasting in the economic and financial market. It is used primarily in the forecasting of the prices of stocks. This is useful to determine and forecast the prices of stocks given previous stock prices. This paper discusses the basis of the hypothesis, the two types of random walk hypothesis, its framework, methodologies and the analysis of its repercussions. INTRODUCTION The random walk hypothesis states that stock price changes have the same distribution and are independent of one another, so the past movement or trend of a stock price or of the market as a whole cannot be used to predict its future price or any possible future trends. The concept originated in the late 1800s from Jules Regnault, a French broker, and Louis Bachelier, a French mathematician, whose Ph.D. dissertation titled "The Theory of Speculation". The same ideas were later developed and studied further by Paul Cootner, an MIT Sloan School of Management professor, in his 1964 book The Random Character of Stock Market Prices. The term was popularized by the 1973 book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, by Burton Malkiel, a professor of economics at Princeton University, and was used earlier in Eugene Fama's 1965 article "Random Walks In Stock Market Prices”. The theory that stock prices move randomly was earlier proposed by Maurice Kendall in his 1953 paper, “The Analytics of Economic Time Series, Part 1: Prices”. To further the understanding of the random...
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...Introduction 1.1 Background Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is "likely" to happen to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a wide variety of charts that show price over time. One of them is candlestick chart. By the grace of Almighty Allah I have been assigned to prepare a project paper on ‘Making Effective Decision in Stock Market through Candlestick Chart Analysis’. I believe that I have tried all the way to follow the previous studies retaining my originality in writing the report. Any analytical criticism and creative suggestion on this concern will receive my heartiest welcome. 1.2 Origin of the report Each professional degree needs practical knowledge of the respective field of discipline to be fruitful. Our MBA program also has a Project Report program, relating to the exchange of theoretical knowledge into the real life practical situation. The report entitled “Making Effective Decision in Stock Market through Candlestick Chart Analysis”. During the project paper program, I was under the supervision and guidance of Md. Hafizur Rahman Khan, Lecturer, Department of Business Administration, Leading University, Sylhet, Bangladesh. 1.3 Objectives (i) Main Objective: The...
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...Project Number: DZT0517 Stock Market Trading An Interactive Qualifying Project Report Submitted to the faculty of the Worcester Polytechnic Institute in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Science by ___________________________________________ Meng-Yu Ni Date: August 2006 Approved by: __________________________ Professor Dalin Tang Project Advisor 1 Abstract Using the information from the internet and published books, a general understanding about stock market and trading strategies was obtained. The knowledge and trading strategies were applied in the market in a stock market simulation to get real-time trading experience. Experiences learned from using trading methods in this simulation will help me to become a better investor in the future. 2 Acknowledgement First, I want to thank my parents who gave me the opportunity to study at Worcester Polytechnic Institute in USA. Second, I would like to thank my advisor, Dalin Tang, who gave me advices, and help me during this whole project time. Thirdly, I want to thank Worcester Polytechnic Institute for giving me opportunity to do this project, which made me to learn more things from outside of classes by myself. Finally, I would like to thank all the people who gave me some help when I needed it. 3 Table of contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgement...
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