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風險與風險管理概論

重點摘要
風險與不確定性的差異 風險管理的步驟 個人與企業分別面對那些風險 風險管理的工具:風險控制與風險融資 風險的分類
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華航客機於那霸機場失火

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華航客機—事故原因

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前言
 無論是個人或企業在現實生活中,總是面對許

多生老病死或是火災地震等偶然事件。這類偶 然事件可能不發生,使我們的生命財產得以確 保。偶然事件也可能發生,使我們的生命財產 遭受損失。
 面對這些可能的意外事件,如何有效降低損失

發生的可能性,或是降低損失發生的嚴重性, 是重要的課題。
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風險的定義
 

風險
實際結果相對於預期結果的變異程度

不確定性
在資訊不足的情形下,使得事件結果的變 異程度無法衡量



風險則是指在訊息較多的情形下, 足以客觀的衡量變異程度
又稱為可以衡量的不確定性



下方風險
實際結果較預期結果差的情形 如:股價下跌
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客觀風險與主觀風險
 客觀風險
實際損失相對於預期損失的變異程度有客 觀的機率作為判斷基礎,例如:中獎機率

 主觀風險
個人主觀意識所感受到的不確定性,並沒 有客觀的機率為基礎
 對同一事件,但每個人感受到的主觀風險會因 人而異。  人在做決策時,往往以主觀風險做決策

第一章 風險與風險管理概論

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危險因素
 危險因素
增加損失發生可能性或是損失嚴重性的原因, 如工廠的工作環境不佳,不良的管理或作業 程序等。例:加州火災

 對人的健康或生命造成影響的危險因素 可細分為四項:
實質危險、生物危險、人體工學危險、化學 危險因素
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實質危險因素(物理條件)
 影響損失發生與否或損失嚴重性的環境, 如:操作危險的機具、長期暴露在紫外線 下,容易對人體造成危害。結冰的路面 (車禍)、門沒上鎖(失竊)等。  以財產而言,物質本身的性質、建築材料、 施工方式的不同,在危險發生時,所造成 的傷害也不相同。如:火災、地震對不同 材質的建築物影響不一樣。
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生物危險因素
 與動物、人類或職務接觸所產生 的危險因素,如:血液或體液、 細菌或病毒、動物或鳥類的糞便 均可能散佈疾病。

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人體工學危險因素
 因工作型態、身體姿勢與工作條件不良 以致對人體產生的傷害。如座椅高度、 長久站立(靜脈曲張)、長時間反覆相 同的動作等。  這類危險因素所造成的傷害,長需要一 段時間才會發覺,因此很容易被忽視。

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化學危險因素
 任何型態的化學物品所產生的人體傷害, 如:廢棄物、清潔劑、易燃物品等。工廠 可能有意無意將有毒物質透過廢水或空氣 排出,污染水源、土壤與空氣,危害附近 居民健康、有些公司在商品製造過程使用 有無物質(三聚氰胺),使得消費者受到 傷害。例:學校旁工業區的廢水、廢氣。

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危險事故
 損失的直接原因,或造成損失的偶然事 件,一般而言可區分為自然危險事故與 人為危險事故,自然危險事故如:地震、 颱風、水災、疾病等,人為危險事故如: 縱火、恐怖活動、車禍等。

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風險的分類


基本風險與特定風險
基本風險是指在同一時間對多數個體造成 損失的風險,其發生與否通常與個體行為 無關,例如地震、經濟波動或金融風暴等。 特定風險則指僅對少數個體造成損失的風 險,而且損失發生與否常與個體的行為有 關,例如使用車輛致他人受傷。
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基本風險的特點
 影響範圍廣泛
基本風險發生的原因與個體的行為 無關,但發生的結果通常影響社會上 的多數個體,或造成區域經濟的動盪, 如:南亞海嘯、日本地震等。

 損失具累積性
由於基本風險的影響層面較廣泛, 因此損失一旦發生,極易累積成巨額 損失。
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基本風險的特點
損失具局部性
 從全球的觀點而言,許多基本風險

所造成的影響仍有其侷限性,如: 雖然水災可能使河流沿岸低窪地區 的房屋同時遭受損失,但在高處或 高樓層的房屋並不會受到影響

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基本風險的特點
政府通常會介入


由於基本風險在同一時間對多數人造 成重大損失,因此政府常常會介入, 一方面在損失發生前預防,另一方面 在損失發生後對受災戶救濟或分攤損 失等。
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基本風險(美國颶風財損)

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純粹風險與投機風險
純粹風險


只會造成損失而不會產生獲利的風險 如:自然界可能發生的火災、水災或 地震,或是人為的意外事故等 可能產生損失也可能產生獲利的風險 如:投資標的的價格波動、利率變動 及滙率變動等
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投機風險


純粹風險通常具有下列特性
發生機率不大,但損失金額很大
預期損失金額遠低於實際可能發生的損失金額, 如:工廠發生火災,造成1000萬元的財產損失, 但發生火災的機會為0.5%,預期損失金額為5 萬元。

只影響個別公司或個人
損失發生與否或損失嚴重性常常與該公司的 管理或個人的行為有關。

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純粹風險通常具有下列特性
透過購買保險的方式移轉純粹風險
保險所承保之純粹風險可分為三類: 人身:針對個人之生命或身體所可能遭遇之一 切危險,如死亡、疾病、傷害等。 財產:針對動產或不動產所可能遭致之各式危 險,如汽車因碰撞、水災、竊盜等危險而發生 損失 責任:因個人疏忽行為致第三人財產遭受損失 或人身遭受傷害

純粹風險通常降低受影響公司或個人的財富
並且造成社會總財富下降
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風險管理


風險管理包括五個步驟
1. 辨認風險 2. 評估損失頻率與幅度 3. 選擇適當的風險管理工具 4. 推行所選擇的風險管理工具 5. 評估該工具的表現

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辨認風險
 貨幣損失與非貨幣損失
當危險事故發生時,可能造成金錢上的 損失,稱為貨幣損失。 當危險事故發生時,可能造成精神上或 身體上的傷痛,稱為非貨幣損失。 貨幣損失的風險,可以透過適當的風險 管理工具,移轉由它人承擔。 非貨幣損失的風險,由於無法移轉,因 此只能盡可能避免。
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個人或家庭面對貨幣損失的風險
 個人或家庭擁有的資產包括人力資 本、實體資產、金融資產等,這些 資產都可能因為危險事故的發生而 遭受損失。  貨幣損失的風險可以歸納為人身風 險、財產損失風險及責任風險。

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人身風險
 個人因為疾病或意外所產生收數減少與醫療 費用的風險,或是因為生存或死亡所產生的 風險。
失去收入的風險:個人因為疾病或意外,使其一 段時間無法工作,或永久無法工作,而失去固定 收入的風險。 發生醫療費用的風險:個人因為治療疾病或傷痛 產生醫療費用。 長壽風險:醫療發達,人類的平均壽命延長,在 退休金使用耗盡的情況下,將導致生活陷入困境。 死亡風險:死亡產生的喪葬費用。
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財產風險
 實體資產與金融資產都可能因危險 事故的發生而遭受損失。
資產遭受損失的風險:個人或家庭 的財產,可能因為水災或火災而遭 受損失。 金融資產風險:個人或家庭的金融 資產如股票或基金等,會受到市場 價格下跌的風險。
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責任風險
因個人的侵權行為或違反契約的 行為,造成他人損失,依法所應 負擔的賠償責任。如:開車違規 撞傷機車騎士,依法駕駛人需對 機車騎士的身體傷害及機車損壞 負起賠償責任。

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企業面對的風險
企業面臨的風險較為多樣,也較 為複雜,由於企業面對的決策較 多,而每項決策都可能隱含極大 的風險。
 生產流程是否安全?  公司海外投資遭受匯率波動影響的嚴重 性有多高?  生產的商品是否會對消費者造成傷害?
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企業面對的風險
 投機風險:
 策略風險:達成公司長期經營目標相關的 風險,如併購活動、研發、投入新事業或 新市場等。  作業風險:公司作業流程相關的風險,如 生產流程規劃是否適當、線上交易的安全 性是否獲得確保。  財務風險:公司的投入或產出價格波動所 產生的風險,如利率、匯率、油價等,使 公司生產成本上升或利潤下降的風險。  信用風險:交易對手違約,而無法一約定 履行債務所產生的風險。
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企業面對的風險
 純粹風險:發生自然災害或意外導致公 司價值降低所產生的風險
 員工的人身風險:企業的人力資源常是企業最 寶貴的資產之一,員工的生病或受傷都會影響 員工的生產力,是企業的成本增加或利潤減少。  財產損失風險:企業的辦公場所、設備、工廠、 生產器具等,都可能因為意外事故的發生而遭 受損失。  責任風險:產品生產製造過程排放出的廢棄物 所造成的環境污染,生產產品的瑕疵,造成消 費者身體的損害,工作環境不佳使員工受傷等。  法令風險:政府法令規定的改變,如增加職業 災害的補償金、改變員工退休金制度等。
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評估損失的頻率與幅度
直接損失與間接損失
 直接損失是指直接因為火災或地震等事故 造成的損失  間接損失(從屬損失),是因為直接損失 衍生的損失 間接損失主要包括失去的利潤、額外的費 用等 若出租的公寓失火,公寓因火災受損的金 額為直接損失、失去的房租收入為間接損 失。
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損失的頻率與損失幅度
損失頻率,係指特定期間內發生損失的

次數,如一年有幾次風災、幾次地震。
損失幅度,係指特定期間內發生損失的

嚴重程度,如一次風災或地震所造成的 損失金額。

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風險管理的工具
 選擇適當風險管理工具之前,必須先了 解有那些工具可供選擇。  風險管理工具依目的不同,可以分為二 類
 風險控制:透過降低損失頻率與損失幅度而 減少預期損失的行為。  風險融資:透過事先安排,使遭受損失後取 得資金用來支付損失。
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風險控制
 減少從事風險行為
 避免開發中國家的相關風險,儘量不去開發 中國家設廠。  減少從事風險行為的極端情形為完全避免。  減少或避免風險行為為消極的作法,常常不 是最有效的解決辦法,如兒童可能會吞食玩 具的零件而受傷,但玩具製造商不能避免生 產玩具。
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風險控制
 損失預防
 降低損失頻率的行動,降低意外發生的可 能性,通常為了成本效益考量,不會完全 消除損失發生的可能性。如降低製造玩具 對兒童造成傷害的可能性,透過減少玩具 零件或零件掉落的可能性,降低兒童吞食 的機會。
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風險控制
 損失抑制
 降低損失幅度的行動,可能在損失發生前 或損失發生後,如損失發生前的預警行為, 政府透過颱風或土石流警報的發佈,提醒 民眾做好防颱準備或做必要的疏散。損失 發生後的行動,如火災發生後,建築物的 自動灑水系統、事故現場的物品搶救等。
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風險控制
 非保險的契約移轉
 個人或企業透過契約的方式,將承擔的風 險移轉予他人,如近年許多企業為減少負 擔包含退休金在內的人事成本,將非核心 的業務如清潔或警衛等工作以契約方式委 託人力派遣公司。

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風險控制
 分散
 將資產分散可降低風險,以免一次事故危 及所有資產。分散資產主要是是每次事故 造成的損失均僅佔總資產的一小部分。  資產分散無法預防損失發生,亦無法降低 預期損失,但可以降低實際結果的變異程 度。
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風險控制
 投資在資訊上
 個人或企業可以透過取得更多訊息以協助 評估風險,做更精確的判斷。如政府的防 救災資訊,天氣預測系統等。廠商對市場 供需與景氣循環的預測,也需要更多資訊 才能降低誤判的可能性。

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風險融資
 風險融資又稱為風險理財、損失融資等,主

要著重於如何在損失前適當安排,以在損失 後取得資金用來支應損失,或降低因為損失 帶來現今流量的波動。  風險融資的方法可依承擔風險的主體是否改 變歸納為二類,即自留與風險移轉,其中, 自留可能是計畫性的自留與非計畫性的自留, 而風險移轉的方法包括保險與非保險的風險 移轉。

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風險融資的架構與主要方法

計畫性的自留 自留 非計畫性的自留 風險融資 購買保險 風險移轉 非保險的風險移轉

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自留
企業或個人保留支付全部或部份損失 的風險。將風險自留的原因如下:
其他風險管理工具成本太高,如:保費太貴。 本身有能力承擔可能發生的損失 無法移轉的風險 為察覺到的風險

第一章 風險與風險管理概論

47

自留
計畫性的自留
公司或個人充份了解所面對的風險,決定 自行承擔 公司或個人認為有能力承擔風險,或風險 管理成本太高、自留成本較低

非計畫性的自留
公司或個人未發現的風險,無意中承擔可 能發生的損失,或是雖然有發現風險,但 不得不自留 沒有適當工具可以移轉風險 低估可能發生的損失
第一章 風險與風險管理概論 48

提撥資金的自留
在損失發生前即預做安排,以確保在損 失發生時,能有足夠的資金。
 自行提撥準備金 運輸公司預計車輛的使用年限為10年,因此 公司提撥準備金,預計在10年後購入新車, 假設在10年之內發生車輛損毀,公司可利用 這筆資金,購買新車。 資金可做其他用途

第一章 風險與風險管理概論

49

提撥資金的自留
 自己保險 公司有足夠數量的危險單位,使公司可以估 計可能發生的損失,而每一個危險單位的損 失金額不大時,則公司可以有計畫的提撥基 金,以用來支付損失。 自己保險提撥的資金,傾向不做其他用途 需有足夠的危險單位 面臨在準備金尚未充足前,損失已發生的風 險,可以搭配其他工具,如購買保險。

第一章 風險與風險管理概論

50

提撥資金的自留
 專屬保險 專屬保險公司係指不是以保險為本業的大型 企業成立保險子公司,並以承保保險母公司 的風險為主要業務的保險公司。如長榮海運 在百慕達成立專屬保險公司。 母公司支付的保費,在沒有發生損失的情況 下,可作為母公司的利潤,假設發生損失的 金額大於所支付的保險費時,其差額仍須由 母公司來承受。

第一章 風險與風險管理概論

51

風險移轉


風險移轉指將危險事故發生的財務損 失移轉由他人承擔,主要包括購買保 險或是透過保險以外的方式,將風險 移轉予他人。

第一章 風險與風險管理概論

52

購買保險
 個人或企業可以將面對的純粹風險向保險公 司投保,並交付保險費以換取保險公司承諾 在約定的損失發生後,由保險公司支付保險 金以補償保戶的損失,因此保險是風險融資 工具。  保戶透過支付保費,將損失發生的可能性移 轉給保險公司,因此保險也是風險移轉的工 具。
第一章 風險與風險管理概論 53

非保險的風險移轉
 避險
 許多公司常利用衍生性商品來避險,通 常透過衍生性商品所規避的風險主要為 投機風險,例如利率風險、匯率風險等, 但是也有少數衍生性商品是設計用來規 避純粹風險。

 利用其它契約移轉方式
 除利用保險或衍生性商品避險外,還可 以利用其它契約,約定由對方承擔風險。
第一章 風險與風險管理概論 54

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