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Stress Testing

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Introduction Stress tests, in the commercial banking literature, refer to assessing the impact of a rare but plausible shock to the financial system. Stress testing is a simulation technique, which are used to determine the reactions of different financial institutions under a set of exceptional, but plausible assumptions through a series of battery of tests. At institutional level, stress testing techniques provide a way to quantify the impact of changes in a number of risk factors on the assets and liabilities portfolio of the institution. For instance, a portfolio stress test makes a rough estimate of the value of portfolio using a set of exceptional but plausible events in abnormal markets.
At institutional level, stress testing techniques provide a way to quantify the impact of changes in a number of risk factors on the assets and liabilities portfolio of the institution. For instance, a portfolio stress test makes a rough estimate of the value of portfolio using a set of exceptional but plausible events in abnormal markets. These tests help in managing risk within a financial institution to ensure optimum allocation of capital across its risk profile.
At the system level, stress tests are primarily designed to quantify the impact of possible changes in economic environment on the financial system. The system level stress tests also complement the institutional level stress testing by providing information about the sensitivity of the overall financial system to a number of risk factors. These tests help the regulators to identify structural vulnerabilities and the overall risk exposure that could cause disruption of financial markets. Its prominence is on potential externalities and market failures.

However, one of the limitations of this technique is that stress tests do not account for the probability of occurrence of these exceptional events. For this purpose, other techniques, for example VAR (value at risks) models etc, are used to supplement the stress tests. These tests help in managing risk within a financial institution to ensure optimum allocation of capital across its risk profile.

The Need for Bangladesh Bank Regulation
Financial institutions around the world are increasingly employing stress testing to determine the impact on the financial institution under a set of exceptional, but plausible assumptions through a series of battery of tests. Bangladesh Bank has designed stress testing framework for banks and FIs-
 To proactively manage risks in line with international best practices.
 Keeping in view with the divergence of skill levels and available resource among banks and FIs.

Techniques for Stress Testing
• Simple Sensitivity Analysis (single factor tests) measures the change in the value of portfolio for shocks of various degrees to different independent risk factors while the underlying relationships among the risk factors are not considered.
• Scenario Analysis encompasses the situation where a change in one risk factor affects a number of other risk factors or there is a simultaneous move in a group of risk factors. Scenarios can be designed to encompass both movements in a group of risk factors and the changes in the underlying relationships between these variables (for example correlations and volatilities).
• Extreme Value/ Maximum Shock Scenario measures the change in the risk factor in the worst case scenario, i.e. the level of shock which entirely wipes out the capital.

Scope & Limitations:
Given the nature of market in Bangladesh, the scope of the stress test is limited to simple sensitivity analysis. Five different risk factors have been identified and used for the stress testing:
• interest rate
• forced sale value of collateral
• non-performing loans (NPLs)
• stock prices
• foreign exchange rate
The results of the adverse scenario should not be considered as representative of the current situation or possible present capital needs. A stress testing exercise does not provide forecasts of expected outcomes since the adverse scenarios are designed as "what-if" scenarios including plausible but extreme assumptions, which are therefore not very likely to materialize. Different stresses may produce different outcomes depending on the circumstances of each institution.

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