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Strong Buy

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Equity Research • IT • 19 August 2011 • Jyske Markets

This is a case recommendation. The company will be included in our equityresearch universe as long as it holds price potential justifying a BUY recommendation. When this is no longer the case, we will discontinue our coverage although our recommendation is ACCUMULATE, REDUCE or SELL.

HP price fall is overdone
We restate our STRONG BUY recommendation for HP and see yesterday’s dramatic price fall as an attractive opportunity to buy. This particularly applies to investors who are patient enough to wait for better market conditions/macro-economic improvement.
HP lowers its outlook: as feared, HP (like Dell (STRONG BUY) earlier in the week) last night downgraded its full-year outlook. It was, however, a relatively moderate downgrade since the sales forecast was lowered by 1.6% and EPS by 3%. Whereas HP previously guided 2011 sales and EPS at USD 129bn-130bn and USD 5.0, respectively, HP now guides USD 127.2bn-127.6bn and USD 4.82-4.86, respectively. HP’s forecast is still a shade better than we had estimated (USD 127.6bn and USD 4.7). The reduced forecast reflects a sluggish willingness to buy among private business customers and that corporate customers are now more hesitant due to the rising macro-economic uncertainty. For Q4, HP guides sales at USD 31.1bn-32.5bn as well as Non-GAAP EPS of USD 1.12-1.16 compared with consensus at USD 33.9bn and USD 1.30, respectively. In addition, HP announced that the company will due to the macro-economic conditions now skip its target of EPS of USD 7 in 2014. A target in which the market has at no point in time had any confidence that HP could fulfil. Accounts in line with expectations: the Q3 2011 accounts per se were in line with consensus (for instance EPS came to USD 1.10 vs consensus at USD 1.09). The EBIT margin of HP’s PC division strengthened by 120 bp y/y despite a fall in sales of 3% y/y. The margin advance can, however, primarily be attributed to lower component prices. HP’s printer division (-1% y/y sales growth) was still affected by low deliveries of laser heads due to reduced capacity as a result of the natural disaster in Japan. It was positive news that HP’s Software division reported sales growth at 20%. Growth which was, among other things, boosted by ArcSight and Fortify. Autonomy: in addition, HP announced that the company will bid DKK 10bn on the UK software house Autonomy. The acquisition price corresponds to a premium of 64% compared with Thursday’s closing price. It is, of course, positive news that HP, led by Leo Apotheker, intends to strengthen the software portfolio but we assess that many investors are disappointed about the high premium which HP has accepted to pay. The USD 10bn corresponds to 10x Price/Sales and more than 25x the expected EPS in 2012. We would consider a Price/Sales of 7-8x more appropriate. It must be borne in mind, however, that Autonomy is a successful software house which has in recent years reported strong growth rates and is highly profitable. For 2011-2014, sales growth at 21%, 18%, 11% and 19%, respectively, is anticipated according to consensus.

Publisher: Jyske Markets Vestergade 8-16 DK - 8600 Silkeborg Senior Equity Analyst Robert Jakobsen +45 89 89 70 44 Assisting equity analyst Jesper Agerholm Jensen Translation: Translation Services

Price trend
Fundamental valuation Risk News flow 12-month price target Current price Undervalued High Neutral 41 29.5

Accounting figures and key figures
Sales Operating profit Results before taxes

2010R 2011E 2012E 2013E
125,682 127,567 130,756 136,640 12,485 10,966 0 9.9% 21.6%

13,012 12,712 0.00 10.2% 20.4% 19.6% 0.00 4.7 7.9 7.1 1.6 0.3

13,206 13,306 0.00 10.1% 17.8% 19.5% 0.00 4.9 7.5 7.0 1.3 0.4

14,894 15,094 0 10.9% 17.1% 21.7% 0 5.6 6.6 6.2 1.1 0.5

Share information
High/low latest 12 months Price trend (3/12 months) - relative to S&P 500 Market value (DKKm) Free float Average daily volume (DKKm) Reuters Bloomberg 49/30 -19%/-29% -4%/-33% 63,836 95% 785

Read more equityresearch reports on


22.5% 0 3.7 11.4 9.2 2.0 0.3

Disclaimer: Please see the last page page.

Source: Jyske Bank & Datastream

Equity Research • IT • 19 August 2011 • Jyske Markets
HP is expected to accelerate these growth rates via its global footprint. Of course, the acquisition also strengthens HP’s target of competing against Oracle (SELL), IBM and other strong business software suppliers. All in all, we find the acquisition price demanding but the acquisition makes good sense. Spins off PC division: moreover, HP announced that the company is considering to spin off its PC division. A division, which accounts for 1/3 of HP’s sales but only 1/9 of its earnings. Provided that it does not deteriorate HP’s conditions in relation to the corporate customers, we will welcome a spin-off so that HP can focus its powers on IT solutions offering the customers higher value. HP abandons TouchPad ‘failure’: in addition, HP will abandon the sale of its newly launched TouchPad and reconsider WebOS’ future. We have long seen WebOS as a ’free option’ with respect to HP’s valuation. We reiterate STRONG BUY: the HP share declined by as much as 10% after the close of the market. A price decline which we see as a clear overreaction. We restate our STRONG BUY recommendation and point out that the share is now trading in line with the bottom during the last recession (2009). This is a fact although HP has since then reduced the number of outstanding shares by 16% and despite a stronger EPS. Since we have already lowered our estimates, we do not expect to lower 2012 noticeably. For 2011, we estimate EPS at USD 4.92 (consensus: USD 5.28).

Peer group
Company P/E(2011) HEWLETT-PACKARD 5,9 DELL 6,9 INTERNATIONAL BUS.MCHS. 12,3 LENOVO GROUP 15,1 EMC 13,7 NETAPP 14,4 CISCO SYSTEMS 9,2 LEXMARK INTL. 6,7 APPLE 13,3 COMPUTER SCIS. 6,6 ACCENTURE 16,2 Weigthed Average 12,1 Mean 10,9 Premium compared with weighted avg. -52% P/E(2012) 5,5 7,0 11,1 12,5 11,8 12,5 8,4 7,1 11,4 6,3 14,4 10,6 9,8 -48%

EV/S(2011) 0,6 0,3 2,0 1,0 2,1 1,5 1,3 0,4 2,9 0,3 1,1 2,0 1,2 -72%

EV/S(2012) EV/EBITDA(2011) EV/EBITDA(2012) 0,5 3,7 3,7 0,3 3,0 3,1 1,9 8,0 7,7 0,9 4,1 3,5 1,8 7,4 6,8 1,3 6,9 6,0 1,2 4,2 3,7 0,4 2,5 2,8 2,4 8,9 7,2 0,3 2,4 2,2 1,0 6,9 6,2 1,8 7,2 6,3 1,1 5,3 4,8 -69% -48% -41%

Scenario analysis Beta WACC Optimistic scenario: 1 p.p. higher sales growth and EBIT margin Basic Pessimistic scenario: 1 p.p. slower sales growth and EBIT margin 1.2 12.1% 53.3 45.7 39.0 1.3 12.9% 49.7 42.7 36.5 1.4 13.7% 46.6 40.1 34.2

Note: the optimistic scenario is based on 1 percentage point higher sales growth and a 1 percentage point higher profit margin in all 10 years of the budget period – the opposite applies to the pessimistic scenario. Source: Jyske Bank


Equity Research • IT • 19 August 2011 • Jyske Markets
Jyske Bank covers the following companies within IT Company Recommendation Analyst Dell STRONG BUY Robert Jakobsen Electronic Arts SELL Robert Jakobsen Ericsson REDUCE Robert Jakobsen Microsoft SELL Robert Jakobsen Nokia BUY Robert Jakobsen Oracle SELL Robert Jakobsen Samsung SELL Robert Jakobsen SAP SELL Robert Jakobsen


Equity Research • IT • 19 August 2011 • Jyske Markets

Disclaimer & Disclosure
Jyske Bank is supervised by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. The research report is based on information which Jyske Bank finds reliable, but Jyske Bank does not assume any responsibilit y for the correctness of the material nor any liability for transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the report. The estimates and recommendations of the research report may be changed without notice. The report is for the personal use of Jyske Bank's customers and may not be copied. This report is an investment research report. Conflicts of interest Jyske Bank has prepared procedures to prevent and preclude conflicts of interest thus ensuring that research reports are bein g prepared in an objective manner. These procedures have been incorporated in the business procedures covering the equity research activities of Jyske Markets, a business unit of Jyske Bank. Moreover, equity analysts at Jyske Bank cannot trade in equities for which they prepare res earch reports. If an analyst takes over for the responsible analyst in connection with illness, business travels, etc., this analyst cannot trade in the relevant share on the day of publication of the research report and the following day. Jyske Bank may, however, hold positions, have interests in or business relations with the companies that are analysed. The research report has not been presented to the company prior to its release. Analysts receive no payment from persons interested in individual resear ch reports. Read more about Jyske Bank's policy on conflicts of interest at

Jyske Bank’s share recommendations – current allocation
Allocation of recommendations, Danish shares (number)
15 10 5 0 Strong Buy
Source: Jyske Bank

Allocation of recommendations, all shares (number)
25 20 15 10 5 0




Strong Buy
Source: Jyske Bank




Financial models Jyske Bank employs one or more of the following models: Discounted cash flow (free cash flow), Economic Value Added and the dividend model to determine the fundamental value of a company. The fundamental value is compared to a relative valuation based on multiples such as P/E and EV/EBITA. The recommendation and the price target are moreover adjusted for the expected news flow and the market sentiment based on knowledge of the industry and company-specific circumstances. Jyske Bank’s recommendations take into account the expected development in the equity market, the various sec tors and company-specific circumstances. Risk Investment in this share is associated with a risk. Movements in the equity market, the sector and/or news flows, etc. regarding the company may affect the price of the share. See the front page of the research report for our view of the risk associated with the share. The risk factors stated and/or calculations of sensitivities in the research report are not to be considered all -encompassing. If the share is traded in a currency other than the investor’s ba se currency, the investor accepts an FX risk. In connection with an ADR or similar papers, the FX risk exists relative to the currency in which the underlying share trades . Update of research report The planned update of the report will be prepared immediately upon the release of the company’s financial statements. In addition, research reports may be prepared on special themes specifically for the company or research reports where the company is part of the special theme. These research reports are published on an ad-hoc basis. See the front page for the initial date of publication of the report. All prices stated are the latest closing prices before the release of the report, unless otherwise stated.


Equity Research • IT • 19 August 2011 • Jyske Markets
Recommendation Strong Buy Buy Reduce Sell
Source: Jyske Bank

Risk-adjusted return >20% 10-20% 0-10%

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