...Macro Economics Project Topic: Inflation Targeting and Interest Rules Section - D Group – 3 Members: Shankho Bag (PGP/19/225) Soham Dutta (PGP/19/230) Sohom Karmakar (PGP/19/231) Sumanraj E (PGP/19/232) Sumeet Mahapatra (PGP/19/233) Abstract:In the recent past India has been grappling with high inflation and inflation stands highest amongst all the G-20 nations. Faced with a twin effect of declining growth which created an environment of “stagflation”, India needed to re-work its entire monetary policy framework. The monetary policy of our country was focused on targeting Multiple Indices like GDP Growth Rate, IIP, WPI Inflation which resulted on low accountability, lack of proper direction and ultimately inflation spirally out of control. To give a new direction and change the discourse of monetary policy, it was obvious some serious reforms were needed. In this report, we take a look at the ground breaking shift in monetary policy when India officially adopted as “Inflation Targeting” as the primary role of its Central Bank (The RBI) and we take a holistic view of the situation. Introduction:The Indian economy during the period 2012, 2013 was at crossroads. With manifold problems surrounding it, the economy needed a major boost and course correction to go towards the path of sustainable growth. The Indian economy was faced with stagflation – the double edged sword of persistently high inflation combined with fall/stagnation...
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...government to ensure sustained economic growth and development of India. Introduction Economy is...
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...INFLATION Inflation In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. It is, often, one of the most unwanted and misunderstood of economic phenomena. We tend to believe that the prices of commodities will, over time, rise and fall, responding to the pulls and pushes of demand and supply. An unexpected decrease in the production of a commodity will lead to increase in the price of that commodity, just as an unexpected increase in the production will cause the prices to fall (cost push). Another reason for the price fluctuations can be attributed to an unexpected increase/decrease in the demand of commodities (demand pull). These price movements are a way of signaling to consumers that they should consume less of the commodity facing shortage and more of the good in abundance and to producers to produce more of what is in short supply and less of what is available in plenty. Inflation, has little to do with these changes in relative prices of goods and services though the price fluctuations of the general price level may be accompanied by relative changes in prices as well. Government policies are often directed to smoothen these price fluctuations. For the common person, Inflation is unwanted, especially on those occasions when the rise in prices of goods is not matched by an equivalent increase in the price of labour as the prices of commodities required increases. Inflation has been with humankind ever...
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...RBI'S MONETARY POLICY INITIATIVES SINCE 2008-09 AND ITS EFFECTIVENESS IN CONTAINING INFLATION PROJECT OF MACROECONOMICS ON “RBI’S MONETARY POLICY INITIATIVES SINCE 2008-09 AND ITS EFFECTIVENESS IN CONTAINING INFLATION” SUBMITTED BY ARPIT PANGASA (11DM032) GUNJAN GODWANI (11DM052) RIDHI PRASAD (11DM122) UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF PROF. JAGDISH SHETTIGAR BIRLA INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY, GREATER NOIDA RBI'S MONETARY POLICY INITIATIVES SINCE 2008-09 AND ITS EFFECTIVENESS IN CONTAINING INFLATION RESERVE BANK OF INDIA It is the central banking institution of India and controls the monetary policy of the rupee. The institution was established on 1 April 1935 during the British Raj in accordance with the provisions of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934. Reserve Bank of India plays an important part in the development strategy of the government. It is a member bank of the Asian Clearing Union. Reserve Bank of India was nationalised in the year 1949. The general superintendence and direction of the Bank is entrusted to Central Board of Directors of 20 members, the Governor and four Deputy Governors, one Government official from the Ministry of Finance, ten nominated Directors by the Government to give representation to important elements in the economic life of the country, and four nominated Directors by the Central Government to represent the four local Boards with the headquarters at Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai and New Delhi. Local Boards consist...
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...recession India had been growing robustly at an annual average rate of 8.8 per cent for the past five years (2003-04 to 2007-08). This was higher than the potential growth rate of output as estimated by the IMF. The strong Indian growth story, based on its structural strengths of a young population, skilled manpower, rising savings and investment rates, large unfulfilled domestic demand and globally competitive firms attracted significant investor attention in recent years. Recent high rates of economic growth have been the result of high levels of investment, rise in productivity supported by technological up-gradation and greater integration with global flows of trade, finance and technology. The challenge is to sustain these high growth rates while also preventing an unacceptable rise in income and spatial inequities and also eliminating absolute poverty in a given time frame. The answer to this challenge is in raising India’s potential rate of output growth by removing the binding constraints. We have also estimated the potential growth rate for India during the last decade based on HP filter technique (Hodrick and Prescott, 1997) and found that in the last three years, India had been growing above its potential growth rate. Figure 6: Potential GDP Growth and Output Gap (1997-08 to 2007-08) Note: Based on HP filter technique as proposed by Hodrick and Prescott (1997). Fears of over-heating of the economy prompted the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to begin...
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...marginally higher than their April 2010 projection. While most of that would come from emerging market economies (EMEs), the advanced economies would hold steady. However, in the aftermath of the Greek sovereign debt crisis and other visible soft spots in Europe and the US, there is renewed uncertainty about the sustainability of the recovery. 2. In contrast, on the domestic front, the recovery has consolidated and is becoming increasingly broad-based. There are rising concerns about capacity constraints being reached over a wide range of sectors. While inflationary pressures have also risen, the performance of the monsoon so far has been significantly better than during last year. While rainfall is still below the long period average at the all-India level, it has been enough to induce a significant increase in sown area across a range of crops, the high prices of which have been a source of great worry. 3. The dominant concern that has shaped the monetary policy stance in this review is high inflation. Even as food price inflation and, more generally, consumer price inflation have shown some moderation, they are still in double digits. Non-food inflation has risen and demand side pressures are clearly evident. With growth taking firm hold, the balance of policy stance has to shift decisively to containing inflation and anchoring inflationary expectations. 4. This policy review should be read and understood together with the detailed review in Macroeconomic and Monetary...
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...| Complete statement: RBI's Q3 2009-10 Monetary Policy review | Here is the Policy Review statement, which should be read and understood together with the detailed review in Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments released on Thursday by the Reserve Bank. The statement is organised in four sections. Section I provides an overview of global and domestic macroeconomic developments; Section II sets out the outlook and projections for growth, inflation, money and credit aggregates. Section III explains the stance of monetary policy and Section IV specifies the monetary measures.I. The State of the EconomyGlobal Economy1. The global economy is showing increasing signs of stabilisation. The growth outlook in virtually all economies is being revised upwards steadily, with the Asian region experiencing a relatively stronger rebound. Global trade is gradually picking up, but other indicators of economic activity, particularly capital flows and asset and commodity prices are more buoyant. However, even as most of the forecasts on recovery are generally optimistic, significant risks remain. The recovery in many economies is driven largely by government spending, with the private sector yet to begin playing a significant part. There are signs that high levels of global liquidity are contributing to rising asset prices as well as rising commodity prices. Emerging market economies (EMEs) are generally recovering faster than advanced economies. But they are also likely to face increased...
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...an indicator of a country’s macro economic stability and provides important insight on the state of the economy and the sound macroeconomic policies that govern it. A stable inflation not only gives a nurturing environment for economic growth, but also uplifts the poor and fixed income citizens who are the most vulnerable in society. A numerous supply side and demand side factors could be responsible for this surge in inflation. Inflation can be a result of shocks to the supply of certain food items and to world oil markets. Rising oil prices can pose risk of increase in prices of almost all other commodities of the consumer basket. Such supply-side shocks are very volatile and can cause large fluctuations in food and oil prices. The effects of this on overall inflation at times can be so excessive that these cannot be countered through demand management, including monetary policy. The demand side...
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...DEFINE INFLATION. EXPLAIN VARIOUS CAUSES FOR INFLATION IN PAKISTAN (a) DEMAND SIDE (b) SUPPLY SIDE INTODUCTION: Moderate inflation is associated with economic growth, while high inflation can signal an overheated economy. As an economy grows, business and consumers spend more money on goods and services. In the growth stage of an economic cycle, demand typically outstrips the supply of goods, and producers can raise their prices. As a result, the rate of inflation increases. If economic growth accelerates very rapidly, demand grows even faster and producers raise prices continually. An upward price spiral, sometimes called “runway inflation” or “hyperinflation”, can result. The inflation syndrome is sometimes described as “too many dollars chasing too few goods:” in other words, as spending outpaces the production of goods and services, the supply of dollars in an economy exceeds the amount needed for financial transactions. The result is that the purchasing power of a dollar declines. In general, when economic growth begins to slow, demand eases and the supply of goods relative to demand. At this point, the rate of inflation usually drops. Such a period of falling is known as disinflation. DEFINITION: True inflation begins when the elasticity of supply of output in response to increase in money supply has fallen to zero or when output is unresponsive to changes in money supply. When there exists a state of full unemployment, the conditions will be clearly inflationary...
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...INTRODUCTION The recent moves of the government to gradually deregulate the Petroleum, Oil and Lubricants(POL) sector in India as part of the agenda of ‘neo-liberal reform’ has generated discontent among the people. In the run-up to complete deregulation, there are instances of increase in the domestic price of POL products that are proportionately more than the rise in their international prices. In the most recent instance (of 13th September, 2012), the diesel price was raised by Rs.5 per litre at one go, even without any rise in international prices. These steps are being taken to eliminate the government subsidy on these products in a step-by-step manner. Deregulation of the POL sector is bound to eliminate the direct or indirect subsidies completely. And reduction in subsidy, according to the government, is the need of the hour in order to reduce the fiscal deficit as proportion to GDP. Deregulation is also necessitated in the current neo-liberal environment because if the government keeps subsidizing the public sector owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) like Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum, then the private companies like Reliance and others would not get a ‘level playing field’ and they would not be able to compete in price. In this way, the present subsidy regime indirectly restricts the private players from entering the oil marketing sector. Hence, if the priorities of the government in power are the reduction of subsidies and ensuring...
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..._______________________________________________ RESERVE BANK OF INDIA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNICATION, Central Office, S.B.S.Marg, Mumbai-400001 फोन/Phone: 91 22 2266 0502 फ स/Fax: 91 22 22660358 ै : www.rbi.org.in/hindi Website : www.rbi.org.in इ-मेल email: helpdoc@rbi.org.in वेबसाइट May 2, 2013 Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments in 2012-13 The Reserve Bank of India today released the Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments in 2012-13. The document serves as a backdrop to the Monetary Policy Statement 2013-14 to be announced on May 3, 2013. Highlights: Overall Outlook Macro-financial risks require cautious monetary policy stance ahead • In view of macro-financial risks that stay significant, headline inflation remaining above the threshold and consumer price inflation remaining high, the space for action for 2013-14 remains very limited. If some of the risks come to fore, policy re-calibration may become necessary in either direction. • Slow-paced recovery is likely later in 2013-14, contingent on improved governance and concerted action to resolve structural bottlenecks, especially in infrastructure sector. Output gap is likely to reduce, but remain negative. • Headline inflation is likely to remain range-bound in 2013-14, with some further moderation in H1 due to subdued producers' pricing power and falling global commodity prices, before it increases somewhat in H2 largely due to base effects. • Reserve Bank's survey of outside professional forecasters shows...
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...privilege for me to be speaking at Harvard to such a distinguished audience. I thank Professor Benjamin Friedman and Professor Tarun Khanna for this opportunity. I will be speaking on the Indian Economy. India is home to 1.21 billion people, which is about 17.4 per cent of the global population. However, it accounts for only 2.4 per cent of world GDP in US dollar terms and 5.5 per cent in purchasing power parity (ppp) terms. Hence, there exists a huge potential for catch up. The global welfare too is linked to progress in India as reflected in the keen global interest in India. But, India seems to inspire and disappoint at the same time. This is reflected in various comments on the Indian economy. Yasheng Huang and Tarun Khanna in their much debated article in July 2003 issue of Foreign Policy had observed: “Can India surpass China? This is no longer a silly question”. The July 23rd 2011 issue of The Economist observed; “Twenty years ago they said the yardstick against which India should be measured was its potential. On that measure, there is much to do.” As a fledgling democracy, India’s economic experiment of planned development was held out as an example to many aspiring low-income countries in the 1950s. While some countries raced ahead in the development process, India lagged behind. This is evident from the fact that it took 40 long years from 1950-51 for India’s real per capita GDP to double by 1990-91. But, 1991-92 was a defining moment in India’s modern economic history...
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... Harsh Gupta Jitisha Malhotra INDEX |Serial no. |Topic |Page no. |Remarks | |1 |Acknowledgements | | | |2 |Introduction | | | |3 |Effects of inflation | | | |4 |Causes of inflation | | | |5 |Controlling inflation | | | |6 |Current situation of inflation in India | | | |7 |Extracts of the Reserve Bank of India’s document released on | | | | |July 28, 2008 | | | |8 |Measures to control inflation | | | |9 |Future inflation ...
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...an indicator of economic and political stability. For example, if a country has a consistently positive BOP, this could mean that there is significant foreign investment within that country. It may also mean that the country does not export much of its currency. This is just another economic indicator of a country's relative value and, along with all other indicators, should be used with caution. The BOP includes the trade balance, foreign investments and investments by foreigners. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF BALANCE OF INDIAN PERSPECTIVE Uses of funds, such as for imports or to invest in foreign countries, are recorded as negative or deficit items. When all components of the BOP accounts are included they must sum to zero with no overall surplus or deficit. For example, if a country is importing more than it exports, its trade balance will be in deficit, but the shortfall will have to be counter-balanced in other ways such as by funds earned from its foreign investments, by running down central bank reserves or by receiving loans from other countries. The balance of payments of a country is a systematic record of all transactions between the residents of a country and the rest of the...
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...Economics Project Effect of Inflation on Household Budget Submitted by- Chander Prabh Jain (14109035) Vasu Singla (14109050) Vikrant Das (14109007) Arpit Dhiman (14109006) Dhruva Gupta (14109010) Branch-Production Contents Pg 3…………………………………………………………….Abstract Pg 4……………………………………………………………..What is inflation? Pg 4 – 6………………………………………………………….Types of inflation Pg 6 -7 ………………………………………………………….Causes of inflation Pg 8………………………………Measurement of inflation and issues encountered Pg 10-11……………………………………………………………Factors affecting demand Pg12 - 13……………………………………………………………..Factors affecting supply Pg 14-15………………………………………How Can Government Control Inflation? Pg 16-19…………………………………………………Effect of inflation on various sectors Pg20-21…………………………………………………………..Literature review Pg22-23………………………………………………Needs, Objectives and Methodology Pg24……………………………………………………………...
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