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Tony

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Vietnam: Fiscal Strategy and Public Debt
Benedict Bingham IMF Senior Representative

Presentation for National Assembly Hanoi- September 15, 2010

The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and should not be attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or its management.”

Outline
  

Vietnam’s fiscal challenge Debt management issues IMF/WB Debt Sustainability Analysis

2

The fiscal challenge: how to finance investment needs?
2010
Liabilities Asset
Public goods-

Target - 2020
Asset Liabilities

Public debt

High quality

High quality

Public goods-

Public debt

Contingent liabilities
Accumulated savings

Public goods-Low quality Public goodsLow quality

Contingent liabilities
Accumulated savings

Industry assets

Industry assets

The fiscal challenge: Constraints and Implications
Three constraints:
  

Scope for increasing aggregate size of public sector limited Scope for raising debt levels limited Contingent liabilities will need careful management

Some implications:


PPP may help but are unlikely to be a panacea (PPP should be driven by VfM not fiscal constraints) Raising savings (revenue), improving efficiency of investment, and equitization will all have to play a role.
4



Debt Management I: Definition of Public Debt
Vietnam - Gross Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt - 2005-2009
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(In percent of GDP) A. Gross public and publicly guaranteed debt (B+C) B. Gross domestic public and publicly guaranteed debt (B1+B2) B1. Gross domestic public debt Securities Loans and advances B2. Gross domestic publicly guaranteed debt VDB domestic debt Other entities (Social Policy Bank, VEC, Vinashin bonds etc.) C. Gross external public and publicly guaranteed debt (C1+C2) C1. Gross external public debt Multilateral Bilateral...

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