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Balance of Trade and Balance of Payment with a special reference of Bangladesh
Introduction
Bangladesh is one of the fastest growing economic countries among the LDC’s country. According to the International Monetary Fund, Bangladesh ranked as the 42rd largest economy in the world in 2011 in PPP terms and 57th largest in nominal terms, among the Next Eleven or N-11 of Goldman Sachs and D-8 economies, with a gross domestic product of US$269.3 billion in PPP terms and US$104.9 billion in nominal terms. The economy has grown at the rate of 6-7% per annum over the past few years. More than half of the GDP is generated by the service sector; while nearly half of Bangladeshis are employed in the agriculture sector. Other goods produced are textiles, jute, fish, vegetables, fruit, leather and leath An easy way to understand any country's economic scenario is through its Balance of Trade (BOT) and Balance of Payment (BOP) figures. Balance of Trade shows the difference between the total amount of incoming and outgoing currencies through import and export. Balance of Payment (BOP) is a summary of economic activities between the residents of a country and the rest of the world during a given period, usually one year. The main purpose of keeping these records is to inform government authorities about the overall international economic position of the country in order to assist them in arriving at decisions on monetary and fiscal policy, on the one hand, and trade and payments policy on the other. Balance of payments statistics are therefore helpful to government authorities charged with maintaining macroeconomic stability.

Although BOT is a part of BOP, but it is significant for the economy because import and export is one of the most important economic activities of a nation. Moreover the balance of trade shows whether the external sector of a particular country is doing well or not. Along with BOT, BOP depicts the overall economic balance of a nation and the health of foreign reserve of that nation.

Objectives of the Assignment: 1. Theoretical aspect of Balance of Payment 2. To discuss balance of trade(BOT) and balance of payments(BOP)

Theoretical aspect of BOP:
BOP is the summary statement of all economic transitions of a nation with the rest of world. These transactions include payments for the country's exports and imports of goods, services, financial capital, and financial transfers. The Bop accounts summarize international transactions for a specific period, usually a year, and are prepared in a single currency, typically the domestic currency for the country concerned. Each transaction is recorded in accordance with the principles of double-entry bookkeeping, meaning that the amount involved is entered on each of the two sides of the balance-of-payments accounts. Consequently, the sums of the two sides of the complete balance-of-payments accounts should always be the same, and in this sense the balance of payments always balances. Conceptually all economic transactions are bilateral in nature and thus these transactions must balance in long run. In Bangladesh central bank (Bangladesh Bank) maintains Bop in Bangladesh empowered by Foreign Exchange Regulation Act 1947.

Three accounts in BOP-
1. Current Accounts
2. Capital Accounts
3. Official Reserve Accounts.

Current Accounts | Capital Accounts | Official Accounts | I. Export of goods II. Import Of goods III. Export of services IV. Import of services V. Unilateral transaction( Profit, Dividend, Interest)*Trade Flows. | I. Foreign direct investment(FDI) II. Portfolio Investments(Cross border selling securities) III. External Debt*Investments and financial flows. | I. Foreign exchange rate II. Special drawing Rights(SDR) reserve III. Gold reserve |

* In the process of main training BOP official reserve account is huge to adjust current and capital account. Even after that if BOP not equal to zero, we make it zero by offering a separate entry known as error and omission or we say statistical discrepancy. * If official reserve bears plus (+) sign, it means BOP deficit; that is foreign currency inflows is lower than foreign currency outflows and reserve decreases that amount. * If official reserve amount bears minus (-) sign; it means BOP surplus. That is foreign currency outflows and foreign exchange reserve increases by that amount.
In connection of BOP:

* BOT = Balance of export and import of goods. * Current account balance = Balance of export and import goods and service. All Unilateral transactions. * Capital account = Balance of FDI, Portfolio investment and external debt. * Overall balance = Balance of all the item of current and capital.

Calculation Sample:

Export of goods & services ****
Import of goods & services (****)
BOT *****
Profit inflows ****
Profit outflows (****)
Current a/c balance ****
FDI inflows *****
FDI outflows (*****)
Portfolio investment abroad (****)
Portfolio investment inflows ****
External debt abroad (****)
Capital a/c balance ****
Overall Balance:
Current a/c balance ****
Capital a/c balance *****
Current balance *****
Statistical Discrepancy ***** OR ***** ****

Balance of Trade of Bangladesh:
Foreign trade plays an important role in achieving rapid economic development of a country. Bangladesh as a developing country, foreign trade can be considered of paramount importance. But trade balance of this country has never been in a favorable position. Each year Bangladesh has to spend a huge amount of foreign currency for importing consumer goods and materials which is not a positive sign for our country. Bangladesh also spends much more for importing industrial raw materials, but it is a positive signal for our economy as it shows enhanced production of the economy. The country’s requirement of petroleum products is entirely met by import.
Bangladesh had consecutive deficit balance of trade in the last 6 years and the gap is increasing every year. Bangladesh imports mostly petroleum product and oil, machinery and parts, soya bean and palm oil, raw cotton, iron and steel and wheat. Bangladesh main imports partners are China (17% of total), India, Indonesia, Singapore and Japan.

Table 1: Cost of export, import and trade balance (In million USD)

Fiscal Year | Total Export | Total Import | Trade Balance) | 2004-05 | 8573 | 11870 | -3297 | 2005-06 | 10412 | 13301 | -2889 | 2006-07 | 12053 | 15511 | -3458 | 2007-08 | 14151 | 19481 | -5330 | 2008-09 | 15581 | 20291 | -4710 | 2009-10 | 16233 | 21388 | -5155 | 2010-11 | 23008 | 30336 | -7328 |
Source: Bangladesh Bank

Chart: Balance of trade in Bangladesh

Table 2: Export- Import ratio in term of Trade balance Fiscal Year | Trade Balance(million USD) | Export-Import Ratio | 2004-05 | -3297 | 1:1.38 | 2005-06 | -2889 | 1:1.28 | 2006-07 | -3458 | 1:1.29 | 2007-08 | -5330 | 1:1.38 | 2008-09 | -4710 | 1:1.30 | 2009-10 | -5155 | 1:1.32 | 2010-11 | -7328 | 1:1.32 |

On the above table we see that, last few fiscal years import ratio always higher then export ratio; i.e. import is higher than export.
Export of Bangladesh
Bangladesh exports were worth 20313.8 Million USD in 2011. Bangladesh exports mainly readymade garments including knit wear and hosiery (75% of exports revenue). Others include: Shrimps, jute goods (including Carpet), leather goods and tea.
Bangladesh Exports: Commodities
Here are the major export commodities of Bangladesh: * Garments * Frozen fish and seafood * Jute and jute goods * Leather * Tea
Bangladesh Trade: Export Partners
The following were Bangladesh’s export partners as of 2011: * United States: 24% * Germany: 15.3% * United Kingdom: 10% * France: 7.4% * The Netherlands: 5.5% * Italy: 4.5% * Spain: 4.2%
Table 3: Total Export and Growth rate Year | Export (In Million USD) | Growth Rate | 2004-05 | 8573 | 13.99% | 2005-06 | 10412 | 21.45% | 2006-07 | 12053 | 15.76% | 2007-08 | 14151 | 17.41% | 2008-09 | 15581 | 10.11% | 2009-10 | 16233 | 4.18% | 2010-11 | 23008 | 41.74% |
Source: Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank.

Sector wise contribution in the export of Bangladesh:
Table 4: Export receipts from major commodities during the last three fiscal years. Commodity group | 2010-2011 | 2009-2010 | 2008-2009 | | Amount | % | Amount | % | Amount | % | Readymade garments | 96440 | 77.1 | 67247 | 77.1 | 67257 | 79.7 | Jute manufactures | 4777 | 3.8 | 3655 | 4.2 | 2391 | 2.8 | Fish, shrimps and prawns | 4149 | 3.3 | 3211 | 3.7 | 3123 | 3.7 | Leather and leather manufactures | 3367 | 2.7 | 2430 | 2.8 | 1962 | 2.3 | Furnace oil, naphtha and bitumen | 707 | 0.6 | 993 | 1.1 | 661 | 0.8 | Raw jute | 1977 | 1.6 | 1330 | 1.5 | 931 | 1.1 | Handicraft | 33 | 0.0 | 114 | 0.1 | 61 | 0.1 | Tea | 19 | 0.0 | 37 | 0.0 | 82 | 0.1 | Fertilizer | 181 | 0.1 | 237 | 0.3 | 711 | 0.8 | Others | 13356 | 10.8 | 8016 | 9.2 | 7245 | 8.6 |
Source: Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank.

Import of Bangladesh:

Major Items | Amount (Billion USD) | % of Total Import | Food Grains | 1911 | 6% | Edible Oil | 1067 | 3% | Sugar | 654 | 2% | Crude Petroleum | 923 | 3% | POL | 3186 | 9% | Chemical | 1254 | 4% | Fertilizer | 1241 | 4% | Plastics And Rubber Articles Thereof | 1302 | 4% | Raw cotton | 2689 | 8% | Textile And articles Thereof | 2680 | 8% | Iron, Steel And Other Base metals | 2004 | 6% | Capital Machinery | 2325 | 7% | Others (including imports for EPZ) | 12422 | 37% | Total | 33658 | 100% |
Table: Importable commodities in 2011

Table: Import payments of Bangladesh with top twenty countries in 2011 Major Countries | Taka in Crore | In million US $ | % of Total | China, P.R. | 42079.60 | 5905.70 | 19.70 | India | 32483.20 | 4560.00 | 15.20 | Malaysia | 12427.60 | 1738.80 | 5.80 | Japan | 9332.30 | 1306.60 | 4.40 | Singapore | 8586.10 | 1208.30 | 4.00 | Korea, Republic of | 7995.10 | 1118.30 | 3.70 | Thailand | 7353.20 | 1028.20 | 3.40 | Indonesia | 5999.60 | 840.70 | 2.80 | Kuwait | 5606.50 | 787.70 | 2.60 | Hong Kong | 5398.50 | 760.80 | 2.50 | Taiwan | 5232.50 | 730.50 | 2.40 | Australia | 5190.40 | 731.70 | 2.40 | Germany | 4933.00 | 691.00 | 2.30 | Brazil | 4848.20 | 677.70 | 2.30 | U.S.A | 4840.00 | 676.70 | 2.30 | Pakistan | 4783.50 | 669.30 | 2.20 | Uzbekistan | 4417.30 | 621.90 | 2.10 | Canada | 4096.30 | 573.10 | 1.90 | Vietnam | 3284.70 | 459.20 | 1.50 | U.K. | 2372.20 | 333.10 | 1.10 | Other Country | 32590.10 | 4573.00 | 15.40 | Total | 213849.9 | 29992.3 | 100 |
Source: Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank.

Balance of Payments of Bangladesh:
Table: Balance of Payments of Bangladesh in the past six years:
(In Million $) Fiscal Year | Current Account Balance | Capital Account Balance | Financial Account Balance | Errors and omissions | Overall Balance of Payment | 2004-05 | -557 | 163 | 784 | -323 | 67 | 2005-06 | 824 | 375 | -141 | -720 | 338 | 2006-07 | 936 | 490 | 762 | -695 | 1493 | 2007-08 | 702 | 576 | -457 | -490 | 331 | 2008-09 | 2416 | 451 | -825 | 16 | 2058 | 2009-10 | 3724 | 512 | -651 | -720 | 2865 | 2010-11 | 995 | 600 | -1584 | -646 | -635 |

Balance of payment of Bangladesh had been surplus for the past five years but in 2010-11 the BOP account showed deficit balance which is due to huge import pressure and relatively low inflow of foreign remittance as well as frequent depreciation of Taka.

Factors that positively impact on Balance of Payments:

Foreign Remittance Inflow:
Remittances from Bangladeshis working overseas, mainly in the Middle East are the major source of foreign exchange earnings. Year | Foreign Remittance Inflow (in million USD) | Growth Rate | 2004-05 | 3848 | 14% | 2005-06 | 4802 | 25% | 2006-07 | 5979 | 25% | 2007-08 | 7915 | 32% | 2008-09 | 9689 | 22% | 2009-10 | 10987 | 13% | 20010-11 | 11650 | 6% |

In the recent years the growth of foreign remittance has become lower due to global economic recession which results in BOP deficit balance in the year 2010-11.

Foreign Direct Investment:

Year | FDI (in million USD) | Growth Rate | 2004-05 | 800 | 190% | 2005-06 | 743 | -7% | 2006-07 | 793 | 7% | 2007-08 | 748 | -6% | 2008-09 | 961 | 28% | 2009-10 | 913 | -5% | 20010-11 | 768 | -16% |

Conclusion:

References:

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