...BAD 64041 Eric Krizay Citation Thun, Druke, Hoenig (2011). Managing uncertainty, an empirical analysis of supply chain risk management in small and medium sized enterprises. International Journal of Production Research, Vol. 49, No. 18, 15 September 2011, 5511 – 5525. Research Classification In the past years, a fairly new research area has emerged on the supply chain management scene and has gained considerable attention from both academics and practitioners: Supply chain risk management. Thun, Druke, and Hoenig set out to empirically investigate, supply chain risk management in small to medium sized companies. By analyzing data from 67 various German automotive manufacturing plants, the authors seek to identify the key drivers of supply chain risk and look at the various methods or instruments of supply chain risk management to determine their suitability by comparing those smaller enterprises with the larger companies. The results are visualized in the probability-impact-matrix distinguishing between internal and external supply chain risks. Statement of Problem The authors sought to answer two main questions: What are key drivers of supply chain risks, and what is their likelihood to occur and their potential impact on the supply chain? and, what are the instruments for dealing with supply chain risks and their impact on performance? These questions gave way to three Hypothesis: H1. Small to medium-sized enterprises regard their supply chain as more vulnerable that...
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...A Decision of Uncertainty Latanya Franklin QNT561 September 17, 2012 Richard LA Valley A Decision of Uncertainty To reduce prices or increase Marketing budget in order to capture market share Sony Incorporated wants to make some changes within the business that in hopes will capture the market share of the industry. The only way to do this is by changing the pricing policy and strategy for the company. The first approach would be to create a development stage that will allow the managers to start setting prices this will allow the company to avoid releasing products or services that has no ability of sustaining profitable prices in the market. By changing the company pricing policies and strategies the company has a greater chance of receiving higher profits including an increase in the company market shares. With changes comes risks and uncertainty of making such changes. The company has to include other factors that include the reaction of the competitors. If the company makes the decision to change its price policies and strategies how will this change impact the company against their competitors by reducing prices. Questions of concern is will the competitors see this a threat and change their prices in response and if so what type of change will they make that will put the company at risk of capturing the market share. The decision that relies on the company here is rather to continue with the price policy and strategy which risks the chance of competitors taking action...
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...Meaning of Risk: Risk is defined as the probability of an event and its consequences. Risk management is the practice of using processes, methods and tools for managing these risks. Meaning of Uncertainty: Uncertainty is a state where the extent of risk and when the risk hits is unknown, (ie) – we know what the risk is but are uncertain of the outcome yet. The main categories of risk to consider are: • Strategic Risk: Strategic risks are those risks associated with operating in a particular industry. - for example a competitor coming on to the market • Compliance: Compliance risks are those associated with the need to comply with laws and regulations. They also apply to the need to act in a manner which investors and customers expect, for example, by ensuring proper corporate governance.- for example the introduction of new health and safety legislation • Financial: Financial risks are associated with the financial structure of your business, the transactions your business makes and the financial systems you already have in place. -for example non-payment by a customer or increased interest charges on a business loan • Operational: Operational risks are associated with your business' operational and administrative procedures- for example the breakdown or theft of key equipment Other risks include: • environmental risks, including natural disasters • employee risk management, such as maintaining sufficient staff numbers and cover, employee safety and up-to-date...
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...Uncertainty Uncertainty allows us to be able to learn and grow as human beings. In many stories and poems addressed the main idea of uncertainty and how the limitation of our perception affect our way of learning and perceive information. The idea of uncertainty is central to Emily Dickinson’s poem “We grow accustomed to the Dark”, she asserts the inevitability of getting used to experiences and how our eyes adjust to a new normal. Furthermore, the limitation of our perception helps us to have new a way of learning and discovering, but also the limitation of our perception can also hinder our way of perceiving the world beyond us. First, the limitation of our perception helps us to have new experiences and discover. In the poem "We...
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...infused with a number of uncertainties; some small and miniscule, such as meeting a student next to you in a classroom, while others life-changing and pivotal, including switching careers or becoming a parent. As each new unpredictable day arises, uncertainty fills the air, constantly swarming one’s emotions and daily interactions. While factors of uncertainty revolve around routinely aspects, Charles Berger and Richard Calabrese (1975) narrowed their focus and devised a theory specifically on uncertainty and interpersonal communication. By studying how human communication is used to gain knowledge and create understanding, Berger and Calabrese unveiled the first generation to reducing uncertainty in interpersonal communication (Griffin, 2011). Known as the Uncertainty Reduction Theory (Berger, 1975), its original form focused on how strangers communicate, noting that the “beginnings of personal relationships are usually fraught with uncertainties” (Griffin, 2011, 130). By means of intensive research and ultimately, complete comprehension, it is evident that the Uncertainty Reduction Theory helps scholars correlate uncertainty with interpersonal communication, thus advancing to significant predictions on how people behave when they are uncertain. Before diving into its specific components, it is important to acknowledge the foundation and premise of the Uncertainty Reduction Theory in order to fully grasp its validity. First, the term ‘uncertainty’ must be acknowledged as a...
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...Reasoning Under Uncertainty Most tasks requiring intelligent behavior have some degree of uncertainty associated with them. The type of uncertainty that can occur in knowledge-based systems may be caused by problems with the data. For example: 1. Data might be missing or unavailable 1. Data might be present but unreliable or ambiguous due to measurement errors. 1. The representation of the data may be imprecise or inconsistent. 1. Data may just be user’s best guess. 1. Data may be based on defaults and the defaults may have exceptions. The uncertainty may also be caused by the represented knowledge since it might 1. Represent best guesses of the experts that are based on plausible or statistical associations they have observed. 1. Not be appropriate in all situations (e.g., may have indeterminate applicability) Given these numerous sources of errors, most knowledge-based systems require the incorporation of some form of uncertainty management. When implementing some uncertainty scheme we must be concerned with three issues: 1. How to represent uncertain data 2. How to combine two or more pieces of uncertain data 3. How to draw inference using uncertain data We will introduce three ways of handling uncertainty: Probabilistic reasoning. Certainty factors Dempster-Shafer Theory 1. Classical Probability The oldest and best defined...
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...Objective The purpose for this experiment was to gain a better understanding of the two types of errors that occur in the processes of taking measurements. Also, it explains how the uncertainty level in direct measurements was found, and how the indirect measurements were calculated as well. To do that, dimensions and the mass of the metal block was measured, which were used to calculate the volume and density of the object as well as the margin of error. Theory In this lab, there were direct and indirection measurements involved, and several calculations were required in order to calculate the related variables. In part A of this lab, apparent and actual height of the wooden block was recorded with a meter stick. The meter stick has an accuracy of ±0.05 cm and no other calculations were needed. [1] Parallax is the change in the apparent position of an object when the position of the observed changes. It is also a common error in scientific experiments. One must be aware of its existence at all time so that it can be avoided and as a result the true value of the reading is obtained. Due to parallax, the position of the observed block appears to change as well, making the height of the block appear to be different for each measurement. In part B of this lab, measurements were recorded indirectly. A meter stick was used to measure the length of the metal block, with an accuracy of ±0.05 mm. Then the width and height was measured with a caliper with an accuracy...
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...[pic] Internal Assessment Resource Physics Level 3 |This resource supports assessment against: | |Achievement Standard 91521 | |Carry out a practical investigation to test a physics theory relating two variables in a non-linear relationship | |Resource title: Baby bouncer | |4 credits | |This resource: | |Clarifies the requirements of the Standard | |Supports good assessment practice | |Should be subjected to the school’s usual assessment quality assurance process | |Should be modified to make the context relevant to students in their school environment and ensure that submitted | |evidence is authentic | |Date version published by Ministry of |December 2012 ...
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...Shaping the Future According to Popper, Lempert, & Bankes (2005), scientific uncertainty often becomes an excuse to ignore long-term problems, such as climate change. It does not have to be so. In everyday life, responsible people look out for the long term despite the needs of the here and now: we do homework, we save for retirement, and we take out insurance. The same principles should surely apply to society as a whole. But how can leaders weigh the present against the future? How can they avoid retrenchment by scientific uncertainty? Analysts have turned to techniques such as scenario planning that involve exploring different possible futures rather than gambling on a single prediction. This article speaks largely on technological innovations shaping the future. One needs to see how this approach works in practice and figure out what exactly the computer should calculate (Popper et al., 2005). The writer is in agreeance that the future is uncertain and the world is facing many challenges. Analysts are researching ways to preserve the environment, safeguard the future of social security, and shield against terrorism and manage the effects of novel technology. Popper et al. (2005) suggests that there should be constructed, rigorous, and systemic methods for dealing with deep uncertainty. Using computers and technological innovations was one of these researchers’ primary solutions. As the future will always be uncertain, Morselli (2013) reports we must assume...
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...What is the role of technology? Is the role different than of your view of today’s technology role? How does uncertainty impact your ability to plan for the future work? Predicting the future, or in this case the future of work, has and always will be one of those uncertain tasks that all individuals, managers, entrepreneurs, etc. question and try to determine. Although predicting the future of work is impossible, it doesn’t mean that one can’t reasonably assume what lies ahead. As the videos allude to, research, analyze and be certain in your direction! The technology has morphed throughout history, from ancient civilization techniques to modern computer devices, and one to believe that technology can’t and won’t change in the future will be left behind. Technology will always drive the workplace, regardless of the industry. Without technology, it will be very difficult to nearly impossible to be transparent, flat, competitive, and on demand. Today’s world of technology is a phenomenon in which people can interact, communicate, plan, organize, and manage work from across the globe in mere seconds and at little to no cost. Technology as we know it today may be much different in 2, 5, 10, and even 20 years from now. Innovation drives technology. Today’s role of technology isn’t much different than my view of its role. As a public employee, it has been difficult at times to “keep up” with the latest and greatest technological enhancements available due to budget and work constraints...
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...way were provided by the laboratory TAs during office hours. I / we have reviewed the consequences of using prior laboratory reports in the laboratory manual. GRADE: / Grader Initials: ________ COMMENTS (grader / students) ME 3057 Score Tally for Reports: Abstract: ____________ / Introduction and Procedure: ____________/ Experimental Results: Discussion: Conclusions: Display Format: ____________ / ____________ / ____________ / ____________ / ME3057, Spring 2012 Abstract The objective of this lab was to illustrate the concepts while measuring properties of realworld systems. Physical measurements of objects are associated with uncertainty which much be taken into account when analyzing a problem using measurements. Propagation of uncertainty arising from individual uncertainties yields a single combined uncertainty for the calculated value. The...
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...to capitalize on Cleveland's reputation as a world class medical center by bringing medical shows and conventions to the city. The Medical Mart concept is modeled after that of the Merchandise Mart in Chicago, and will be managed by MMPI, the same company that operates the Merchandise Mart and will open in 2013(About Cleveland MMCC , 2011). This paper will discuss how risks were identified, ranked, and monitored for the Cleveland Medical Mart project. Identifying Risk Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization risk in a project. It attempts to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities. Risks can come from uncertainty in financial markets, project failures, at any phase in design, development, production, or sustainment life-cycles, legal liabilities, credit risk, accidents, natural causes and disasters as well as deliberate attack...
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...Period 1 4/4/14 Style Essay This passage from The Great Influenza describes the scientific process and how a scientist must have the courage to “embrace” uncertainty to make the unknown known. Through the use of metaphors, analogies, and other rhetorical devices, the author further conveys a scientist’s tedious process to reveal a newfound truth. Barry begins by contrasting the strength and conviction of certainty with the weakness and fear of uncertainty. He uses clear, definitive language to convey broad ideas. He establishes direction in his second paragraph as he lists the qualities an ideal scientist should have. He emphasizes that a scientist must have “the courage to accept—indeed, embrace—uncertainty.” To conclude this paragraph the author uses Claude Bernard, a famous physiologist, as an authority to strengthen the make-up of a scientist. Barry opens the third paragraph with a metaphor, which strengthens the courageous aspect of a scientist. “A scientist must accept that all his or her work, even beliefs, may break apart upon the sharp edge of a single laboratory finding.” Barry then uses the example of Einstein to express this point of a total reversal of beliefs in an attempt to persuade the reader that to face a destruction of one’s convictions requires a far greater courage, to perceive uncertainty as an ally rather than a foe. Paragraph four starts to convey how a scientist must “create” the tools needed to shed light on what is unknown by using many rhetorical...
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...Assignment No.2 Production Operations Management Decision Making Under Certainty, Uncertainty, Environment is effect on the decisions which are making undercertainty.Certainty and undercertainty are reciprocal to each other,the degree will be vary certainty to uncertainty Decisions making associate with different kinds of risks. Certainty situation refer to who people think they are making reasonable decisions and what will be next in future and they predict analysis and make decisions . The reliable information will help to considered the cause and effect the matter is come to know about relationship for both uncertainty and certainty. Uncertainty situation reffer to people have data base which is not sufficient and reliable data which base brings sure accurate result so this becomes a not sure able result which tells neither good nor bad results. Evaluation of different variables for interaction is so difficult,For example if i start to expand the business in Chinese market but I have nominal and not sufficient information About china culture,climate,political situation ,Govt laws,policies,norms,values etc. It will be more difficult in situation to start business. Founder of Pakistan Quid-E_Azam says”I don’t like to take Right Decisions….!!!!! “I take decisions and make them Right. Correct Pay off table Alternative Low(125dozen) Medium(800dozen) High (1750 dozen) Small facility 15625 15625 15625 Medium facility...
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...Key Terms Matching Quiz Name: Larrico Williams Directions: Read the definitions in the chart below. Find the corresponding term in the table provided. Write the correct term in the numbered space in front of its definition. There is only one correct answer for each definition. Not all available terms will be used. 1. Strategy | A plan designed to obtain a specific goal or result | 2. Ambiguity | Uncertainty of meaning, intention, or outcome | 3. goal | The desired result or achievement toward which effort is directed | 4. Ethics | Positive ideals, customs, and morals which an individual or a group hold in high regard and aspire to embody | 5. skills | Abilities to do something well that come from knowledge, practice, experience, and aptitude | 6. tools | Things used to help accomplish a task or purpose | 7. Resources | Sources of supply, support, or assistance that can be readily drawn upon when needed | 8.Motivation | That which causes a person to act or to desire to act in a certain way or do a certain thing | 9.style | One’s positive or negative manner, feeling, or position with regard to a person or thing | 8. Discipline | Behavior in accord with rules of conduct and maintained by training and control | 10.Dependability | The quality of being reliable and worthy of trust | 11.participation | The quality of tenacity or endurance in remaining steadfast to an idea, a request, or a purpose | 12.tolerance | Interest in...
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