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University Toys Case

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“CASO: UNIVERSITY TOYS”

MA06 Métodos Cuantitativos para la toma de Decisiones

I. Problemática y objetivos del caso de estudio
University Toys” ha desarrollado una nueva línea de productos correspondiente a una serie de figuras de acción de profesores de Administración (BSPAF’s por sus siglas en inglés) las cuales son caracterizadas a partir de profesores populares de la Escuela de Negocios. La administración necesita decidir cómo comercializar los muñecos.
Una opción es empezar la producción inmediatamente y simultáneamente lanzar una campaña publicitaria en el periódico universitario. Esta opción costaría 1,000 USD. Basándose en experiencias pasadas, las nuevas figuras podrían venderse bien o fallar irremediablemente. En consecuencia, las predicciones para cada uno de los dos posibles resultados son: 2,500 unidades de ventas totales en el mejor de los casos o 250 unidades en el peor. “University Toys” recibe un ingreso de 2 USD por unidad vendida. La administración de hecho piensa que hay una probabilidad de 50% de que el producto se venda bien (vender 2,500 unidades) y 50% de probabilidades de que no lo venda bien (vender 250 unidades).
Otra opción es realizar una prueba de mercado del producto. La empresa podría construir unas pocas unidades, poner un anuncio en la librería universitaria y ver cómo se vende sin hacer ningún gasto en publicidad. Esto requeriría menos inversión para la corrida de producción y ningún desembolso en publicidad. También se tienen dos predicciones para esta prueba de mercado: que el producto se venda bien (vender 200 unidades) o que el producto no se venda bien (vender 20 unidades). El costo estimado de esta opción es de 100 USD. Los ingresos que se recibirían por las ventas de las unidades en la prueba de mercado son los mismos que en la opción 1, es decir, 2 USD por unidad. La empresa tiene experiencia en este tipo de

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