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Us Recession in Macroeconomics Perspective

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Submitted By titah
Words 515
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Question 3
Oil prices and U.S. GDP both fell in 2009. Use a graph to explain this observation of falling oil price and falling GDP.

In 2009, world economy encountered one of the most severe downturns due to financial crisis incurred in 2008. The crisis resulted in a period of deflation (refer to Exhibit 1) and failing consuming confidence, which cause a fall in aggregate demand. Decreasing demand shifted the AD curve to left, from AD0 to AD1 (refer to Exhibit 2) so that GDP decreased to Y1.

Exhibit 1

We assume all other products price does not change in short run, except oil price. As in equilibrium point B, potential oil supply was greater than current demand, there is pressure to lower oil price to the long-term equilibrium point C and increase GDP to original level, so in result oil price started to decrease after financial crisis (refer to Exhibit 3).

US Congress approved the $787 billion economic stimulus package in February 2009. It allocated funds in tax cuts, in extended unemployment benefits, education and health care and in job creation. The package was designed to be spent over ten years. By the end of FY 2009, $241.9 billion had been spent: $92.8 billion in tax relief, $86.5 billion in unemployment and other benefits and $62.6 billion in job creation grants. This stimulus package shifted AD1 to AD2.

Meanwhile, under pressure of decreasing oil price and demand, OPEC deducted oil supply in 2009 in order to maintain oil price. SRAS0 should have been shifting downwards to SRAS1 if no supply deduction, but in result, SRAS0 shifted to SRAS2. Thus, in short run, the equilibrium point move from B to D with lower oil price (P2) and lower GDP (Y2). In long run, equilibrium point would move to E with same GDP but lower oil price if no further stimulation of demand or supply shock.

AD0
Exhibit 2
AD1
AD2
LRAS
Price level, P
YN
Income,

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