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Valuation of Idea Cellular

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Submitted By rajeshranjanpm
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Equity Research Report
19th July 2012

Idea Cellular Limited
CMP:INR81.4
Stock Information IDEA.NS/ IDEA.BO Sector Telecom Market Cap.(INR Mil) 280,832 Avg. Daily Volume 1,560,228 Beta 0.94 PE Ratio 38.7 52 Week High/Low 103.7/65.6 SENSEX/Nifty 117266.6/4159.0 Price Perfromance Idea 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Month 10.2% -6.1% 0.5% 5.4% S&P CNX 500 1.9% -2.8% 4.9% -9.2%

“Rating:Hold (on watch)”

Target Price: INR96

Our DCF valuation indicates upside of almost 18% from current price level in next 12 months but consideration of potential regulatory cost makes it unattractive at the moment. We should rather wait for regulatory uncertainty to get over.

Key Highlights
 Tariff rates: We see strong likelihood for tariff hike across the board after auction is completed in August 2012 as current price of spectrum and prevalent low tariff make the business unviable.  Market share: Since small operators have shifted their focus on cash conservation and margin improvement, incremental market share of top three players have increased considerably. Idea ranks second after Airtel in terms of market share of new subscribers addition.  Negativity: Recently telecom players have been going through uncertain times due to pressure from different corners: regulatory, operationally and financially. We believe this negativity has already been accounted in current price. However, sensitivity to Idea’s balance sheet of expected cash outflow is high due to smaller balance sheet size of Idea.  Valuation: Our DCF valuation indicates stock price of INR 96, almost 18% higher than current stock price. However, we see negative return taking regulatory cash outflow INR 40 per share into account. Moreover, Idea is trading at PE of 39, highest amongst its peers. Comparing valuation of Idea with Airtel, we find Airtel more attractive. Financial Performance 2011-12 193,223 9.1% 3.0%

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