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Violent Micro-Cycles

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LaFree and Freilich are concerned with identifying concentrations of violent attacks in time and space. In their study, they are referring to highly concentrated series of attacks as ??micro-cycles.?? The authors draw on recent research demonstrating that individual crimes elevate the risk for subsequent crimes termed ??near repeats.?? They use data from the DHS and START supported Global Terrorism Database (GTD) analyze over 4,000 terrorist attacks attributed to the FMLN in El Salvador and ETA in Spain. These two terrorist organizations were both extremely active but differed greatly in terms of history, motives and grievances. Their studies show strong support that the terrorist attacks attributed to these two distinctive groups were part of violent micro-cycles based on the spatio-temporal attack and the two groups similarities. …show more content…
The authors argue about the methods developed in the paper could be useful for understanding about the situational and temporal distribution of ordinary crime. LaFree and Freilich also use the GTD to explore the terrorist activity of 557 organizations, which were active between 1970 and 2008. They point out that organizations that attack immediately and more regularly will last longer (LaFree & Freilich, 2012). The authors use the above group models to calculate the annual ratio of attacks to attacks-at-peak for each organization in order to isolate patterns of onset and independent variables of the absolute magnitude of activity. Finally, they explore the extent of terrorist organizations begin can be used to predict how they will

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