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Volcanic Hazards Management

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Volcano Hazards Management

1. Prediction * Long term * Short term

LONG TERM PREDICTION * Using recurrence intervals to estimate the next volcanic eruption based on past occurrences and trends.
This recurrence interval method is generally not effective for a number of reasons: a) for certain volcanoes, there has been a lack of information of past occurrences, such as the type and frequency of eruptions, to effectively predict the overall behavior of the volcano and b) it is impossible to determine exactly what time frame the volcano may erupt.
Example:
The US Geological Society also estimated that Mt St Helens may experience another eruption in the next 20-30 years, but such a large time frame is useless in giving governments any accurate information for the preparation of the eruption or mitigation.
The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcanic eruption was predicted in 1979, quite accurately, however, the damage to the country was devastating as the government did not take the appropriate mitigation measures. 25 000 people and 15 000 animals were killed. 4 500 people were injured, 8 000 people homeless. Some government officials dismissed the report as too alarming and did not want to evacuate people till they were assured of the necessity. A group of scientists visited the crater, saw nothing to suggest eminent danger and did not recommend and evacuation. No emergency plans were made to evacuate people
After the Mt Nevado Del Ruiz eruption in 1985, it was predicted that another earthquake would occur in 20 years’ time around 2000, but it has not erupted till this date.
Hence, prediction measures are useless without any mitigation measures taken to minimize the dangers of the volcanic hazards.

SHORT TERM PREDICTION * A lot more accurate and effective in alerting citizens of imminent volcanic eruptions. * Predictions are usually measured

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