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Warren Buffet Case

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Akuisisi PacifiCorp oleh MidAmerican
Menurut kasus ini, terdapat perubahan pada harga saham Berkshire Hathaway dan Scottish Power pada hari pengumuman akuisisi. Harga penawaran untuk PacifiCorp adalah $ 9,4 miliar, dimana Berkshire membayarnya dengan kas sebesar $ 5,1 miliar dan sisanya menggunakan hutang dan saham preferen senilai $ 4,1 miliar. Dampak dari pengumuman tersebut adalah naiknya harga saham kelas A Berkshire Hathaway sebesar 2,4%. Dari sudut pandang Berkshire dan investor lainnya, akuisisi MidAmerican terhadap PacifiCorp dapat memberikan potensi perkembangan yang baik sehingga tak heran berita ini memperoleh respon positif, menyebabkan harga saham Berkshire sebagai holding company MidAmerican mengalami kenaikan harga saham. Berkshire percaya bahwa PacifiCorp dapat memberikan keuntungan produktif di masa depan. Dari sudut pandang Buffet yang menganut prinsip value-investing, nilai intrinsik PacifiCorp tentu lebih tinggi dibanding biaya $ 9,4 miliar yang dikeluarkan.
Metode valuasi berdasarkan market multiple untuk perusahaan sebanding, dapat dilihat bahwa rentang Enterprise Value yang mungkin untuk PacifiCorp adalah membentuk antara $ 6,252 miliar sampai $ 9,289 miliar. Sedangkan rentang market value of Equity yang mungkin adalah antara $ 4,277 miliar sampai $ 5,904 miliar. Dalam kasus ini, Berkshire lewat MidAmerican mengakuisisi PacifiCorp dengan harga $ 9,4 miliar. Harga tersebut berada diluar rentang enterprise value maupun market value of equity yang dihitung berdasarkan market multiple. Hal ini tentu akan menimbulkan pertanyaan, mengapa Berkshire bersedia untuk membeli PacifiCorp dengan harga sedemikian tinggi.
Dalam kasus tersebut, Buffett mengatakan bahwa "intrinsic value is all important and is the only logical way to evaluate the relative attractiveness of investment and business". Dari perkataan tersebut, Buffett secara eksplisit menjelaskan bahwa dirinya hanya akan melakukan pembelian pada harga di bawah atau sama dengan nilai intrinsik. Market value adalah harga dimana suatu aset akan diperdagangkan dalam pasar efisien. Dalam kasus ini Buffet memberikan harga penawaran yang lebih tinggi (semua rentang) dari yang diminta oleh pasar. Pertanyaannya di sini adalah bagaimana Buffett dapat mengetahui nilai intrinsik PacifiCorp ketika harga pasar tertinggi yang mungkin adalah hanya $ 5,904 miliar. Di sisi lain, secara nilai buku, PacifiCorp pada Maret 2005 hanya memiliki book value sebesar $ 3,377. Sedangkan net incomenya sebesar $ 251,7 juta. Ini berarti Berkshire membeli PacifiCorp dengan PBV sebesar 2,78x ($ 9,4 miliar/$ 3,377 miliar) dan P/ER sebesar 37,34x ($ 9,4 miliar/$ 251,7 miliar). Bandingkan dengan P/BV dan P/ER tertinggi pada perusahaan sebanding, yaitu sebesar 1,95x (NSTAR) dan 20,33x (Alliant Energy).
Dalam menghitung nilai intrinsik, salah satu metode yang paling umum adalah DDM (Divident Discount Model). Namun DDM tidak bisa dipakai karena PacifiCorp adalah perusahaan privat yang tidak pernah membagikan dividen. Oleh karena itu, perhitungan nilai intrisik diperoleh dengan mencari nilai terminal dan menambahkannya dengan nilai buku ekuitas. Prinsip yang dianut ole Buffet adalah dia menggunakan risk-free rate sebagai discount rate, sehingga dalam menghitung terminal value, discount rate yang digunakan adalah sebesar 5,76% yang merupakan tingkat bunga 30-year US Treasury Bond. Sedangkan untuk tingkat pertumbuhan, akan digunakan angka 1,45% yang merupakan pertumbuhan net income Pacific Corp pada tahun 2005. Dari sini diperoleh nilai terminal sebesar $ 5,926 miliar. Menambahkannya dengan nilai buku ekuitas sebesar $ 3,377 miliar, diperolehlah nilai intrinsik untuk PacifiCorp yaitu sebesar $ 9,309 miliar. Sekali lagi ditunjukkan bahwa metode ini masih menghasilkan angka yang berada dibawah angka yang digunakan oleh Warren Buffet.
Gap ini bisa diatribusikan pada persepsi terhadap aset PacifiCorp yang sesungguhnya. Sejauh ini metode valuasi yang digunakan untuk menghitung nilai intrinsik seluruhnya berdasarkan angka akunting. Padahal prinsip yang digunakan oleh Buffet adalah untuk melihat pada realita ekonomi, bukan pada realita akunting. Karena keterbatasan data, mendalami realita ekonomi seperti yang telah dilakukan oleh Warren Buffet adalah tidak mungkin. Dalam hal ini, ekspetasi tingkat pertumbuhan kemungkinan akan jauh lebih tinggi (dibanding 1,45% yang dipakai diatas). Apalagi Buffet mengakuisisi PacifiCorp untuk mendukung tercapainya tingkat pertumbuhan jangka panjang Berkshire Hathaway sebesar 15%. Bila menggunakan tingkat pertumbuhan yang sama dengan yang dipakai oleh Buffet, tentu bisa diperoleh nilai intrinsik yang dipakai oleh Buffet dalam mempertimbangkan keputusannya.
Namun yang perlu diperhatikan pula adalah naiknya saham Scottish Power (sebesar 8%), selaku pemilik PacifiCorp seusai pengumuman penjualan. Secara persentase, kenaikan harga saham Scottish Power selaku penjual jauh lebih besar dibandingkan dengan yang dirasakan oleh saham Berkshire selaku pembeli. Menyerap pada nilai nominal, hal ini menunjukkan bahwa deal tersebut lebih menguntungkan bagi Scottish Power. Sebaliknya kita tidak bisa menyimpulkan bahwa Berkshire memperoleh harga yang bagus dari deal tersebut. Disinilah asimetri informasi terjadi. Antara Buffet berhasil menemukan sebuah hidden gem yang tidak disadari oleh Scottish Power atau justru sebaliknya Buffet tidak menyadari adanya sebuah hidden trap dari deal tersebut.

Pengaruh PacifiCorp terhadap Berkshire Hathaway
Secara keuangan, PacifiCorp menunjukkan angka yang lebih baik dibanding MidAmerican. Net profit marginnya sebesar 8,26%, lebih besar dibanding MidAmerican yang hanya memiliki net profit margin sebesar 2,53%. Hal ini tentu menunjukkan sedikit kontradiksi dimana PacifiCorp yang notabene merupakan perusahaan penyedia low-cost energi ternyata memiliki net profit margin yang lebih tinggi dibanding perusahaan penyedia energi reguler. Tingkat hutang yang dimiliki PacifiCorp juga cukup tinggi, hal ini berimbas pada biaya bunga yang hampir setinggi net income perusahaan. Namun sekali lagi, angka ini juga masih lebih baik dibanding MidAmerican (dimana biaya bunganya lebih besar dibanding net incomenya).
Secara model bisnis, akuisisi terhadap PacifiCorp akan meningkatkan jumlah customer yang akan dilayani. PacifiCorp memiliki 1,6 juta customer yang tersebar di 6 negara bagian di AS. Sebaliknya MidAmerican memiliki 5 juta customer yang tersebar di AS dan UK. Manuver akuisisi ini tentu salah satunya bertujuan untuk mengurangi persaingan dalam industri energi yang hanya bisa memperoleh margin yang rendah (karena berkaitan dengan hajat hidup orang banyak). Manuver ini kemungkinan juga diambil oleh Buffet untuk meningkatkan kemampuan MidAmerican untuk tetap kompetitif sebagai jawaban atas akuisis yang dilakukan oleh Duke Energy, salah satu kompetitor MidAmerican, terhadap Cinergy. Kedua manuver berpotensi menciptakan gelombang konsolidasi dalam industri energi.
Melihatnya dalam skop Berkshire Hathaway sebagai holding company, akuisisi PacifiCorp merupakan sebuah usaha untuk diversifikasi sektor bisnis. Dengan adanya akuisisi tersebut, diharapkan Berkshire mampu memberikan imbal hasil yang lebih stabil.

Kenaikan harga saham Berkshire H+1 dari pengumuman
Harga saham Berkshire kelas A meningkat 2,4% pada hari setelah pengumuman terhadap akuisisi PacifiCorp. Selama ini Berkshire memiliki persediaan kas sebesar $ 43 miliar. Investor menilai bahwa akuisisi PacifiCorp sebagai alternatif investasi yang jauh lebih baik dibanding membiarkan kas yang tertumpuk menganggur.
Lebih dari alasan diatas, kemungkinan yang menjadi alasan utama kenaikan harga saham Berkshire disebabkan oleh irasionalnya pasar. Sosok Warren Buffet yang dikenal sebagai investor paling sukses tentu akan selalu mengundang perhatian. Ketika investor besar sepertinya melakukan investasi yang sudah tidak lama dilakukannya, pasar akan memberi respon positif, tanpa sebelumnya melakukan valuasi lebih mendalam. Publik memiliki kepercayaan yang tinggi terhadap sosok Warren Buffet dan meragukan bahwa dia akan melakukan kesalahan. Apalagi Buffet selama ini dianggap sebagai sosok investor yang konservatif, hanya akan berinvestasi pada perusahaan yang benar-benar dipahaminya. Fenomena seperti ini sering disebut sebagai hot-hand fallacy dalam ilmu psikologi (atau behavioral finance), dimana orang mempercayai bahwa seseorang yang berhasil akan memiliki kesempatan lebih besar untuk memperoleh keberhasilan pada kejadian selanjutnya. Disini penulis bukan berarti meragukan kemampuan investasi Warren Buffet, namun penulis hanya mencoba untuk menjelaskan teori yang mendasarinya.

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