Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting Gathering historical economic data as well as economic forecast data can be a very important and useful tool for a business, business research, and planning. There are several resources available in which a company can access this type of information for their advantage. For instance, through archiving data, collecting and running records, recollecting, economic data and forecast service providers or analytics, and other secondary resources. One useful source is the U.S. Small Business Administration. Their website lists multiple economic data resources tailored to different variables such as inflation, consumer reports, price index, accounts data, and the U.S. Census Bureau just to name a few. Furthermore, you can even access economic issues discussed at the White House and the plans intended to improve economic conditions. On the U.S. Small Business Administration’s website, there are very useful quantitative and qualitative forecasting factors. The whole website has a slew of quantitative factors with a lot of helpful statistics. Some important statistics to look at would be the trade and income figures. Trade statistics indicate how much money and product are being imported and exported within different time frames. It also gives an estimate into international transactions that are open at the moment. Income statistics give individuals access to know about different salary levels based on categories such as education, occupation, and gender. This area of the website also gives information on the national poverty line. A major qualitative forecasting factor includes the demographics of the country. The demographics of different areas mean that certain areas will produce and consume differently than other areas. When the demographics throughout the country start to change, so does the country’s wants and needs; this will affect our imports from foreign countries. There are many factors that will impact the sources on aggregate demand and supply. One very important factor is when foreign income rises then exports will also increase, which causes the aggregate demand to increase. Another factor is the increase of wages; this will cause people to have the means to spend more money and in return will cause consumption expenditures to increase. The government will also create factors that will make an impact on aggregate supply and demand, for example the government can create policies that can adjust the taxes which will influence how the consumers will spend money and increase consumption expenditures.
Objectives
In week two we discussed the two types of economics and also the development of macroeconomics. We also covered other topics such as fiscal policy and the two different types of fiscal policies, which are expansionary fiscal policy and contractionary fiscal policy. Rebecca mentioned that the most important aspects she learned is gross domestic product, inflation rate, employment rates, and interest rates. All of these aspects were great for her to learn and interesting as well, because soon she will be in the real estate business. Rebecca states that when she is selling houses, fluctuations in the economy to include those aspects previously mentioned will affect the housing market and therefore affect her business. Another great thing for Rebecca to learn was about gathering historical economic data and forecast. Rebecca mentioned that once she has her own brokerage, she can see these tools being very useful while making important business plans and decisions. This week, Herika learned about the classical and Keynesian economists. She says that they both had a number of informal models like the quantity theory and even a number of percepts about macro policy. With Classical economist it focused on long run issues such as growth, and with Keynesian economist they focused on the sort run issues, finding the answers to what short run forces were causing the Depression and what could be done to counteract them. During week two, the topics that Joshua felt comfortable with were the classical and Keynesian economists. He states that he had a better understanding on how the economy worked before and during the great depression because of the two types of economics, and also learned how macroeconomics was created. The topic that Joshua struggled with was how the aggregate demand policy worked. He stated how confusing it was at first to understand the differences between expansionary policy and contractionary policy when discussing about fiscal policy. The things that learned from this week’s readings are the effects of inflation rates, employment rates, and interest rates. discussed how as a future publicist she will need to know the numbers and changes for these aspects of business to know when is the best time for her client or clients to bring out different projects and then make the most money from their ventures. She states that when her clients make money, she will make money and that inflation and deflation will affect everyone's bank account. Employment can affect different aspects both in the business and out. When unemployment is high, people will pay less money for luxuries. Same thing occurs with high interest rates.
References
Small business administration data and statistics. (2014). Retrieved from http://www.sba.gov/category/navigation-structure/starting-managing- business/starting-business/establishing-business/business-data-statistics