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What Is Exponential Growth Model

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This study made use of two mathematical methods that involves exponential functions. These methods are the Exponential Growth Model and the Logistic Growth Model. These methods are used in order to predict the total number of populaion and the growth rate of the country of Ghana, in the following years to come until the year 2050. Included in this study is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) which is used to solve the margin of error and determine the accuracy of both mathematical models utilized in this study. This theoretical dissertation allows the readers to learn about the practical application of mathematical models to real life situations, particularly in the field of demorgraphics. The forecast shall be determined
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More importantly to the government officials, as having the an idea of the estimated population rate in the future can help them formulate strategies for the economic and social welfare of the country. Moreover, results of this research can also shed light to the students for they can use the mathematical models used in this study for similar researches and accordingly expand their knowledge on the lessons of math models and exponential functions. Furthermore, for the researches, this research may be used as a reference in doing relevant studies and improving the variables by including other vital factors and demographic variables that could yield a more accurate …show more content…
Meanwhile, the Logistic Growth Model showed results that Ghana will have a population of 341.2443 with a 5.13% growth rate. The MAPE value of Exponential Growth Model is 16.31% and the Logistic Growth Model is 95.21%. With these results, it can be observed that the Exponential Growth Model which shows a lower MAPE value has a more accurate outcome than the other model. By MAPE standards the results of Exponential Model were classified as a good forecast. This gives the implication that there is a high possibility that Ghana’s population will rise to 114.8207 in millions with a growth rate of 3.15%. However, with the margins of errors shown, it also gives the implication that these predictions are not 100% accurate. The inaccuracy is possibly caused by the limited scope of the study of the models used. Given that there are still a lot of factors that may affect the population of a certain country, and not all of these factors are included in the scope of the study. Some of these factors which should be taken into consideration to arrive at a more accurate result are the demographic variables of growth rate, death rate, life expectancy, and the rate of fertility. This raises the notion that this study still has a room for improvement and the factors as stated could be applied by further

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