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What Is That

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Submitted By Dimko
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Июль 2011

ОБЗОР РЫНКА КОММЕРЧЕСКОЙ НЕДВИЖИМОСТИ 1 полугодие 2011

ОБЗОР РЫНКА КОММЕРЧЕСКОЙ НЕДВИЖИМОСТИ

1 полугодие 2011

СОДЕРЖАНИЕ
1. 2. 3. 4. Резюме…………………………………...…………………………………………………………………………….. Офисная недвижимость…...………………………………………………………………………………………… Торговая недвижимость…………………..…………………………………………………………………………. Гостиничная недвижимость…………………………………………………………………………………………. 3 4 7 9

Все права защищены. Данный обзор был подготовлен в исключительно информационных целях. Его содержание является собственностью компании Blackwood. Воспроизведение всего обзора или любой его части возможно только с получением на это письменного разрешения от компании Blackwood. При цитировании материалов ссылка на источник обязательна.

ОБЗОР РЫНКА КОММЕРЧЕСКОЙ НЕДВИЖИМОСТИ

1 полугодие 2011
Резюме За первое полугодие 2011 г. на рынок офисной недвижимости Московского региона пополнился на 300 тыс. кв. м качественных площадей. Объем вышедшего на рынок нового предложения существенно ниже показателей предыдущих лет - тенденция замедления темпов ввода, начавшаяся в 2010 г., по-прежнему актуальна. Таким образом, совокупный объем предложения на рынке офисной недвижимости составил порядка 11,1 млн. кв. м. Деловая активность в течение первой половины 2011 г. была достаточно высокой - спрос на аренду и покупку качественных помещений оставался высоким, что отразилось на дальнейшем сокращении уровня вакантного предложения. На конец первого полугодия 2011 г. доля вакантных помещений в классе «А» составляет порядка 13-15%, в классе «В» - 14-17%. В целом начало года для рынка офисной недвижимости стало довольно позитивным, рынок продолжает демонстрировать достаточно стабильные показатели, при этом все посткризисные тенденции остаются актуальными. Спрос на аренду и покупку качественных офисных помещений в течение 1 полугодия 2011 г. оставался довольно высоким. Тенденция постепенного роста средней арендуемой площади сохраняется. Ценовая ситуация на рынке офисной недвижимости в течение 1 полугодия 2011 г. характеризуется повышательным трендом: на фоне достаточно высокой активности арендаторов совокупный рост средних ставок аренда с начала года составил порядка 10-15%. В течение I полугодия 2011 г. рынок профессиональной торговой недвижимости продолжил свое развитие в русле тенденций, сформированных еще в конце 2010 г. Как для сегмента профессиональных торговых центров, так и для сегмента street retail характерны снижение уровня вакантных площадей и стабилизация ставок аренды. При этом наиболее востребованные у арендаторов торговые центры и наиболее престижные торговые улицы демонстрируют поступательный рост ставок на 510% по сравнению с концом 2010. С учетом принятых Правительством Москвы в начале 2011 г. законодательных актов о запрете нового строительства в центральной части города, а также решения о сокращении торговой функции до минимальных значений в проектах на площади Тверской заставы и на площади Павелецкого вокзала можно с высокой долей вероятности прогнозировать дальнейший рост ставок аренды в сегменте street retail.

В течение I полугодия 2011 г. предложение на гостиничном рынке Москвы увеличилось на 636 номеров за счет открытия трех отелей. Как и большинство вышедших на рынок в последние годы гостиниц, два из трех открытых объектов позиционируются в верхнем сегменте рынка. Данная тенденция способствует сохранению дефицита качественных гостиниц в среднем и нижнем сегментах. Таким образом, рынок гостиничной недвижимости Москвы по-прежнему остается ориентированным преимущественно на деловых туристов. В конце I полугодия 2011 г. состоялся выход на российский рынок нового бренда W Hotels: в Санкт-Петербурге был открыт отель класса люкс W Saint-Petersburg на 137 номеров (оператор Starwood Hotels&Resorts). Гостиница обладает рядом конкурентных преимуществ (местоположение рядом с Исакиевским собором, нестандартный стиль и пр.), позволяющих прогнозировать, что отель сможет занять свою нишу на рынке отелей класса люкс Санкт-Петербурга. Всего в течение I полугодия в региональных городах были открыты 5 гостиниц под управлением международных операторов, совокупный номерной фонд которых составил 834 номера. Среди основных наблюдаемых в течение последних лет тенденций на рынке гостиничной недвижимости Москвы можно отметить сохранение низких темпов прироста нового предложения и практически полное отсутствие новых проектов в среднем и нижнем сегментах, что в ближайшие годы будет способствовать сохранению дефицита номеров, следствием которого станут рост поступательный рост загрузки и цен продаж по мере восстановления спроса.

В течение II квартала 2011 г. в Москве не было открыто ни одного нового профессионального торгового центра. В результате по итогам полугодия объем предложения остался на уровне, достигнутом в первом квартале: общая площадь составляет 5,98 млн. кв. м, из них арендопригодная 3,03 млн. кв. м. Таким образом, обеспеченность жителей Москвы качественными торговыми площадями сохраняется на уровне 289 кв. м на 1 000 жителей. В течение I полугодия 2011 г. наблюдалась высокая активность торговых операторов, способствовавшая росту количества сделок и снижению уровня вакантных площадей как в сегменте профессиональных торговых центров, так и в сегменте street retail.

3

ОБЗОР РЫНКА КОММЕРЧЕСКОЙ НЕДВИЖИМОСТИ

ОФИСНАЯ НЕДВИЖИМОСТЬ
Предложение
За первое полугодие 2011 г. на рынок офисной недвижимости Московского региона пополнился на 300 тыс. кв. м качественных площадей. Объем вышедшего на рынок нового предложения существенно ниже показателей предыдущих лет - тенденция замедления темпов ввода, начавшаяся в 2010 г., по-прежнему актуальна. Таким образом, совокупный объем предложения на рынке офисной недвижимости составил порядка 11,1 млн. кв. м. Деловая активность в течение первой половины 2011 г. была достаточно высокой - спрос на аренду и покупку качественных помещений оставался высоким, что отразилось на дальнейшем сокращении уровня вакантного предложения. На конец первого полугодия 2011 г. доля вакантных помещений в классе «А» составляет порядка 13-15%, в классе «В» - 14-17%. Офисный рынок в пределах Центрального делового района уже близок к полному восстановлению - здесь уровень вакантного предложения в классе «А» ниже среднего по рынку. Постепенно растет спрос и на более удаленные от центра районы, и темпы роста в связи с достаточно жестким ограничением нового строительства в пределах ТТК будут усиливаться. В целом начало года для рынка офисной недвижимости стало довольно позитивным, рынок продолжает демонстрировать достаточно стабильные показатели, при этом все посткризисные тенденции остаются актуальными. Несмотря на то, что корректировка девелоперских планов и оптимизация портфелей по-прежнему имеет место, за первое полугодие было возобновлено строительство целого ряда крупных объектов, а также заявлено о реализации новых

1 полугодие 2011

Динамика объемов предложения, млн.кв. м
11,5 11,0 10,5 10,0 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 QI QII QIII QIV 2008 QI QII QIII QIV 2009 QI QII QIII QIV 2010 Новое строительство QI QII

2011

Существующее предложение

Источник: данные компании Blackwood

проектов. Так, компания «Система Галс» в рамках оптимизации портфеля выставила на продажу 2 корпуса бизнесцентра класса «В+» «Даниловский форт» на Новоданиловской набережной общей площадью порядка 30 тыс. кв. м. Та же «Система Галс» намерена войти в другой проект – транспортный терминал в составе «Москва -Сити», приобретя 50%+1 акцию голландской компании Citer Invest B.V. Проект помимо транспортной инфраструктуры предполагает строительство высококлассной недвижимости офисного и гостиничного назначения. Планируемый срок реализации проекта – 2015 г. А Сбербанк, планирующий смену своего головного офиса, переориентировался с покупки объекта на его строительство и теперь подыскивает подходящие для этого площадки.

Некоторые проекты, заявленные к реконцепции/строительству в 1 полугодии 2011 г.
Девелопер/ Инвестор Название и класс объекта Разморозка / Реконцепция «СТТ-девелопмент» MR Group «Снегири девеломпент» «Система-Галс» Midland Development/Сбербанк н/д МФК (башня "Россия") МФК (MR Group ) Эволюция (City Palace) SkyLight (башни Siemens«Система-Галс» «Царев Сад» Парламентский центр (Гостиница «Россия») Москва-Сити, участки 17-18 Головинское ш., д. 5 Москва Сити, участки 2,3 Ленинградский проспект, 39 Софийская, 36 — Болотная, 10 Москворецкая наб. 250 000 166 300 (офисы 61 570) 169 000 111 000 80 000 н/д Адрес Заявленная площадь, кв. м

Новое строительство Bosch н/д «Ренова-стройгруп» «Ак барс девелопмент» Источник: данные компании Blackwood Офис Bosch МФК «Звездный» МФК на территории завода ЗИЛ "Смоленка" Химки г. Королев ул. Автозаводская, д.23 Смоленский бул., 12 57 000 34 000 500-700 тыс. 21 000

4

ОБЗОР РЫНКА КОММЕРЧЕСКОЙ НЕДВИЖИМОСТИ

ОФИСНАЯ НЕДВИЖИМОСТЬ
Спрос
Спрос на аренду и покупку качественных офисных помещений в течение 1 полугодия 2011 г. оставался довольно высоким. Тенденция постепенного роста средней арендуемой площади сохраняется. Что касается структуры спроса по заявкам, поступающим в компании Blackwood, по итогами 1 полугодия 2011 г. она оказалась следующей: 61% всех заявок составили запросы на аренду, и 39% - на покупку офисных помещений. Наиболее спрашиваемым в аренду классом попрежнему остается «В-», однако доля запросов на него продолжает снижаться за счет роста спроса на более качественные объекты класса «А» и «В+». В структуре спроса на аренду офисных помещений по метражу наибольшая доля приходится на блоки до 200 кв. м (38%) - этот сегмент по-прежнему остается наиболее популярным. В сегменте купли-продажи качественных офисных помещений также происходит постепенное перераспределение спроса в сторону самых качественных объектов класса «А» - по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года доля заявок на него возросла с 18% до 24%. Структура спроса на покупку офисных помещений по метражу также несколько изменилась относительно прошлогодней: в течение первого полугодия 2011 г. наблюдался рост количества заявок на небольшие блоки площадью до 200 кв. м. Общие тенденции в спросе на рынке качественной офисной недвижимости в 1 полугодии 2011 г. были следующими:

1 полугодие 2011

Структура спроса на аренду офисных помещений по классу зданий

27% 46% 27%

класс А класс В+ класс В-

Структура спроса на аренду офисных помещений по метражу
38% 8% 32% 22% 201-500 501-1500 >1500

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...What to Be Society`s definition of a non-conformist is a person whose behavior or views do not conform to prevailing ideas or practices. To some people it is easy and simple to not conform to the proper manners of society and to others it doesn’t bother them a bit. In 2014, I could be a non-conformist by ignoring certain procedures of life, even though those certain actions can be seen as rebellion and lead to unasked for consequences. Martin Luther King Jr. fought against racial segregation and Jesus preached against Jewish tradition; both these men are seen as non-conformists by our society and both suffered serious consequences. If I were to become a nonconformist in 2014, I’d most likely do it by ignoring school rules such as not being able to use phones in school and having to ask for permission to leave the classroom with a reasonable excuse. Then at home I could ignore curfew, be irresponsible of my chores and not bother with the dress code set by my parents. But in the end I would have to suffer the consequences and eventually abide by the rules. Maybe these examples are too strong because nowadays everybody does their own thing and in teenagers, non-conformism can be seen as rebellion. In Elissa Karg`s, How To Be A Non-Conformist, she says “nonconformists smile only sardonic and sarcastic smiles.” To a grown adult a sarcastic smile can be seen as disrespectfulness and lower an image of the person. I think that non-conformism only leads to trouble for those that don’t...

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...How Much Land Does a Man Need In the short story, "How Much Land Does a Man Need" by Leo Tolstoy, Pahom is a peasant living on a small plot of land. When his wife brags that a peasant's life is safer than having money, because with money comes temptation, Pahom agrees, adding that he would not be "afraid of the devil himself" if he only had more land. He buys more land, but is unhappy for no matter how much more land he gets, he wants more. He becomes greedier and greedier until he loses control of his life and, in the end, loses everything. This story shows us that even if we have enough to get by; the prospect of becoming wealthier is so alluring it can cause us to risk all the good things we already have. At the start, Pahom is a content, hardworking man. Unfortunately, he makes the mistake of thinking that more land would make his life better. Pahom was thinking, "Our only trouble is that we haven't land enough. If I had plenty of land, I shouldn't fear the devil himself!” When an opportunity arises for Pahom to acquire more land, he jumps at the chance, convinced that more would make him happy. He paid off his debts and had plenty of fertile land to grow his crops and raise his cattle, but he was only satisfied for a short while. "Pahom was well-contented and everything would have been right if the neighboring peasants would only not have trespassed on his cornfields and meadows", so even when he had the extra land he wanted. His life was far from perfect. Disputes with...

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...What If.. What if I was a superhero? When I am at home and lying in my bed, I sometimes think of how cool it would be if I could be a superhero. I don’t mean a superhero like Batman, who is just a man with a lot of money. When I say superhero, I mean like Superman. If I was a Superhero I could do anything. I wouldn’t need a car. I wouldn’t need anything actually. I could just fly off to Africa for example. But first I would like to talk about what superpowers I would have. My superpowers would be: Superhuman strength, speed, hearing, longevity, stamina and intelligence. I am also invulnerable. I can fly. And I can heal myself. These would be my superpowers. I think that if I were a superhero, I would be more of an antihero. I would be like Hancock in the beginning of the film. If I was in the mood I would save some people, but mostly I would just fly around and maybe kill some terrorists. But I would never listen to the government and their so-called problems. Maybe I would be an alcoholic, and never care about it. I don’t think that I would have any friends actually, because I would be so different from the others. Maybe people would hate me, and maybe they would love me. There would off course be some be some that would understand me because I would be difficult to be the only one. I would be very lonely and sad, but could never die. Maybe it is not a good thing to be a superhero. Maybe it would be better to normal or what is said to be normal. Maybe you...

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...tower and are at the same angle from one another, is 77,975 ft., and that the distance between the cell phone and the satellite was 78,000 ft.. With this information we needed to find out if this was a suicide or a homicide? The first thing we wanted to figure out was if he walked of the build by his own free will or did someone force him out of the window? To get this answer we would need to find out the distance that the victim feel, and we had already gotten this from the officers and the time it took him to reach the ground. To do this we put the information that we got from the police which was, that the victim was 35.38 feet from an open window on the 35th floor, on a 320 ft. high rise building into the falling time formula t=h16. So what we did next was insert the numbers in the proper place, so we replaced 320 with h because it is the height in this situation so we ended up with the equation t=32016 solved it and got t= 4.472. We used another equation to find the velocity so we could find out the rate he would fall, and find out where he would land which was v= dt. Next we inserted the solutions of the last equation and this one into the proper places and got the new equation was v= 35.384.472 with the solution as 7.91 ft. /s, his horizontal speed he left the building. The next thing we did was triangulate the call from the...

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