Free Essay

“Will China’s Rise Lead to War?”

In:

Submitted By Budd
Words 1265
Pages 6
The rise of China and the impact it will have is the subject of much speculation. In his paper, “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?” Glaser (2011) looks at this issue. Glaser contends that the outcome of China-U.S. relations is not predetermined to be a repetition of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War or even a hegemonic war as per the standard realist’s view, nor does he agree with the liberal view that the current international order will accept China’s rise peacefully. Glaser’s thesis is that major confrontation can be avoided; he argues that the forces that could create a hegemonic conflict between the two powers are weak; that the greatest dangers will be created through “secondary disputes.” Glaser also contends that the US will have to make concessions alliances to China regarding U.S. to avoid a major clash and that the way the two nation’s leaders handle those issues will determine the eventual outcome.

To the world China is an unknown actor upon the world stage, a communist regime that until 1980’s was for the greater part a closed country. Today as a growing world power, both economically and militarily China like any nation requires respect, security and economic growth and development for her people. In this endeavor China has created something of a security dilemma as no one really knows what role China will seek, what she will demand from those nations around her, nor the consequences of these desires. John Herz (1950) describes a security dilemma as being when a state whilst looking after its own best interests, regardless of intent, leads to a rising insecurity in others due to them seeing the others defensive measures as threatening. Glaser further explains it by saying, “The intensity of the security dilemma also depends on states’ beliefs about one another’s motives and goals.” Glaser (82, 2011) This insecurity, possibly has never been more evident than right now. Currently China is embroiled in territorial disputes for islands with both Japan and the Philippines causing China both internal unrest, through public demonstrations as well as international condemnation and criticism from many parties including the U.S. and her allies.

The geographical positioning of China and the US makes the risk of a conventional invasive conflict between the two unlikely and both maintain sufficient nuclear weapons to protect their vital interests and act as a deterrent for nuclear exchange; under current circumstances, war between the two is unlikely. These points are well supported by Glaser, but the question still remains regarding the intentions of China’s possible expansion and how the U.S. will respond to protect the interests of both the U.S.A. and her allies in the Asia/Pacific region. The implausibility of a hegemonic war between the two nations is reiterated by Kolodziej (1992, 27) while discussing international security and the “state and order” dimension of the security system. In her research article, Bonnie Glaser (2007) contends that China’s foreign policy is one of peaceful development; the paper examines the term, “peaceful rise”, first used by China’s leaders in late 2003, but dropped from use by early 2004 to be replaced with a modified statement “peaceful development.” In April 2004 Politburo standing committee member, Zeng Qinghong at the Opening Ceremony of the 60th Session of the United Nations Economic and Social commission for Asia made comments that promised China “would never seek hegemony, no matter how well developed it becomes and labelled [sic] China’s path as peaceful development.” Glaser (2007, 300)

Charles Glaser (2011) claims that conflict between the two countries has potential to arise in what he calls “secondary disputes” between China and her Northern-Asian neighbours to whom the US has strategic alliances with; namely Japan, Korea and most importantly Taiwan (interestingly he did not mention Southeast-Asia where a territorial issue is currently being played out). “The One-China Principle has been evolved in the course of the Chinese people's just struggle to safeguard China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and its basis, both de facto and de jure, is unshakable. Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.” Taiwan Affairs Office (2000) Glaser contends that the “growth in China’s power may nevertheless require some changes in U.S. foreign policy that Washington will find disagreeable---particularly regarding Taiwan.” Glaser (2011, 86) Later Glaser (2011) states that although current U.S. foreign policy is not designed to encourage Taiwanese independence, nor will the U.S. necessarily come to Taiwan’s aid if Taiwan formally declares independence; he says that Washington may well be led into a crises they are not able to control through maintaining their alliances. His solution is for the U.S. to back away from its commitments in Taiwan, but his argument that the impact of concessions on the issue of Taiwan will have no impact on the relationships of U.S. allies is not convincingly supported. Cheng-yi Lin (Lin, 2011) alternatively says the cost of military action against Taiwan would be costly for China not just militarily or economically but that such actions would be a signal that China is not a reliable partner, and that its peaceful rise was a slogan not a guide for Chinese foreign policy. Concurrently Philippines’ General Cruz’ comment in a recent interview regarding the political situation between Philippines and China, said China could not risk losing their economic and political power by using actual force just to claim the area, that they would resolve the ownership dispute through pressure and peaceful dialogues. Acosta (2012) This is equally applicable to Taiwan and other regional issues.
Conflict between the U.S. and China, purely for hegemonic reasons is highly unlikely as neither presents geographically a strategic threat to the other. The risk from secondary involvement is quite real; but unlikely, if the Chinese government resorted to the use of force in Taiwan (or other disputes), in the case of Taiwan, anything but full compliance with Beijing’s demands would be considered a failure, potentially undermining China’s domestic situation. Taiwan and the U.S. on the other hand would not have to defeat the People’s Liberation Army (PLA); they only need to prevent a Chinese victory. The likelihood of failure may be too high to be risked and could prevent Beijing from opting for war. The economic cost and loss of international prestige would be severe and could potentially disrupt China’s internal security as the economy and people would suffer greatly. Peaceful growth and development really is China’s only option, anything else is going to be counterproductive to the overall security of China.

. 1073 words.

___________________________________________________________________

References:

Acosta, P. 2012. “China’s defense build-up will not lead to war, Philippine Maj. Gen. Francisco Cruz says” In Asia Pacific Defense Forum, 37 (3): 7-8.

Glaser, B. and E. Medeiros. 2007. “The Changing Ecology of Foreign Policy-Making in China: The Ascension and Demise of the Theory of “Peaceful Rise.”” The China Quarterly, 190: 291-310.

Glaser, C. 2011. “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?: Why Realism Does Not Mean Pessimism.” Foreign Affairs, 90(2):80-90.

Herz, J. 1950. “Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma” World Politics, 2(2): 157-180.

Kolodziej, E. 1992. “What is Security and Security Studies?:Lessons from the Cold War”, Arms Control, 13(1): 1-30.

Lin, C. and D. Roy, 2011. “The Future of United States, China, and Taiwan Relations.” New York, Palgrave Macmillan.

Taiwan Affairs Office and the Information Office of the State Council, 2000. “The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue. http://english.gov.cn/official/2005-07/27/content_17613.htm (accessed: September 15, 2012).

.

Similar Documents

Premium Essay

China

...How far can the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 be considered the key turning point in the development of China in the years 1900-2000? During the years 1900-2000 there were many turning points in China's history. We saw such things as The fall of the Qing Dynasty and imperialism February 1912, The warlord era 1915, The rise of the nationalists 1928, The formation of the PRC in 1949, The Korean and Vietnam wars 1950 and 1964, Nixon's visit in 1972 and Deng Xiaoping's Third Plenum. The key Turing point in China's history would have to be the rise of Deng Xiaoping in 1976. The reason behind this is by looking at social political, economic and international development Deng achieved greater positive development over the 4 topics and few limitations in comparison to the other turning points. The fall of imperialism and the Qing dynasty in 1912 lead to some major development in China.in china at the time there was a huge social divide. This was most notable in the rural regions where in some communities some people were consuming up to 4000 calories per day, while others were only consuming 1400. Likewise socially development in china was far behind the rest of the world. At the time China had a literacy rate of only 3.6% while Japan had a rate of 26.3% however, during the Qing dynasty economically they were prospering and catching up with the rest of Asia. This was best shown by jack Gary’s Rebellions and revolutions where he puts a more positive spin...

Words: 2073 - Pages: 9

Free Essay

How Peaceful Is China’s Peaceful Rise?

...HOW PEACEFUL IS CHINA’S PEACEFUL RISE? 16 July 2014 at 17:01 HOW PEACEFUL IS CHINA’S PEACEFUL RISE? The People’s Republic of China has been taking great pains to point out to its neighbours specifically, and the world in general, that they have nothing to fear of its increasing power. This approach is epitomised by China’s emphasis on the term ‘peaceful rise’ to describe its expanding influence since 2004. Not only is ‘peaceful rise’ used to allay concerns that China will use its power to further its goals at the expense of other nations, it is also used to directly contrast the PRC with the United States who have been embroiled in the same period in the controversial War on Terror. Given the prominence of the claim of the claim it is clearly in the interests of understanding international and regional developments that we pose the question “How peaceful is China’s peaceful rise?” As this essay will show, in light of the PRC’s domestic aims and because of China’s historical and cultural experiences, any attempt to answer question is contradictory, and depends on the region. The question of China’s contradictory peaceful rise is explained most completely by the theory of neoclassical realism. Neoclassical realism argues that it is the aim of states to gain power to pursue what they deem is in their national interests. It breaks down the state’s efforts in that respect into two spheres, the internal and the external. The external sphere is similar to other theories of...

Words: 3553 - Pages: 15

Premium Essay

Geopolitics of China

...towards the north-east (Hutton, 2007), whereas, the West hosts more mountains. Most countries are historically known for using their boarders and coast lines as defensive mechanisms, conversely though, China is known for tactfully moving in-land and using its terrain for defence; which form up to two thirds of China’s land (Gaddis, 2005). Will Hutton argues that China has “burst back on to the world scene in a manner parcelled in scale and speed in world history only by the rise of the United States.” It first endured a “century of humiliation” (Lecture). Opium Wars dominated China in the 1840s until 1860, after which the Taiping Rebellion – a civil war, revolting against the Quing Dynasty took place, closely followed by the Boxer Uprising – a rebellion provoked by imperialist expansion (Gaddis, 2005). Looking at this, we can see that China has been closely linked to war throughout the last century. More recently, it had a major role, following the former Communist Soviet Union in the Cold war, where China endured crises by both foreign and internal, such as Mao Zeodong’s attempts to bring China forward in the world, and the Tiananmen Square massacre. Throughout the Cold War, “China conveyed the appearance,...

Words: 2520 - Pages: 11

Free Essay

China

...China’s Peaceful Rise to Dominance The current state of the globe has seen many changes in the past few decades. The global political structures have shifted and turned to provide a new landscape where substantial evolution has and will continue to occur. The purpose of this essay is to argue and prove that China will rise to power in a peaceful manner throughout the 21st century. This paper will first explain the current situation, which has left China in position to become a global leader as the new century unfolds. The essay will also examine military, economic and social issues that may positively contribute to this change and lead this Asian country to a new significant posture within the geo-political realm of international relations. The Rise of China towards the 21st Century Technology and communication improvements have changed the world for good. With new developments in these areas, the world has become much smaller and navigable in many ways when discussing China and their current rise to global prominence in recent times. The end of the Cold War which saw a bipolar world develop into a unipolar world has created opportunity for other powerful nations to step in and play a key role in global events that are unfolding. China’s massive population and natural resources have continued to organize and be directed towards more powerful means. Chinese leaders have seen this coming for years as the country began opening up to global interests in the 1970’s. As America’s...

Words: 1363 - Pages: 6

Free Essay

China

...China’s Rise is Inevitable China’s inevitable rise ranks among the most important world developments of the last 100 years. Since America is still trapped in its sixth year of economic hardship, and the Chinese economy is set to surpass the U.S.’s before the end of this decade, China looms very large on the horizon. A U.S. intelligence report stated that China's economy is likely to surpass the U.S. in less than two decades while Asia will overtake North America and Europe combined in global power by 2030. Modern China’s rise to world economic power, like its predecessor from 1100 to 1800, is based on its enormous productive capacity. China’s rush to economic development is beautifully depicted in the documentary, “Last Train Home.” Trade and investment was governed by a policy of strict noninterference in the internal relations of its trading partners. Unlike the U.S., China did not initiate brutal wars for oil; instead it signed lucrative contracts. Also, China does not fight wars in the interest of overseas Chinese, as the U.S. has done in the Middle East for Israel. China’s sustained growth in its manufacturing sector was a result of highly concentrated public investments, high profits, technological innovations, and a protected domestic market. While foreign capital profited, it was always within the framework of the Chinese state’s priorities and regulations. The regime’s dynamic export strategy led to huge trade surpluses, which eventually made China one of the world’s...

Words: 1357 - Pages: 6

Free Essay

China's Foreign Policy

...deliver an analysis about Chinese foreign policy in the upcoming years, its development and clarification of the position of the People’s Republic of China in the international relations with a focus on China’s peaceful rise. The essay covers China’s relations to the selected countries, for example the most important neighbouring countries, but nevertheless the U.S., European Union and Middle East also. It focuses also on environmental sustainability, possible economic influence in the foreign countries, controversial issues over disputed areas and possible democratization of the political system. Analytically it discusses the factors involved in shaping as the China’s foreign policy, as well as domestic policy. It deals with human rights violation and discrimination. In focus to the security issues it gives an overview of China’s military capacities and abilities, which may be considered as a threat to its peaceful rise. As a conclusion it gives an analysis of factors that contribute in China’s effort to become a regional power, in means of emerging power that is able to compete with the traditional western type powers. Theoretical basis The impressive economic growth of People’s Republic of China over the past few decades raises a profound question about China’s peaceful rise in the international relations. It is a beautiful example of a country which is to become a regional and eventually global power in our lifetime. China is predicted to become a player with global influence...

Words: 4780 - Pages: 20

Premium Essay

The China Choice

...Washington should share power with Beijing by forming a “Concert of Asia”, comprising the great powers of the Asia-Pacific. Author Hugh White’s argues that China’s challenge to America’s economic pre-eminence could succeed where others have failed because China has something the earlier challengers lacked: China’s workforce is four times the size of American’s. If China’s productivity approaches American level and Chinese workers become one quarter as productive as American workers, the two nations’ GDPs will be equal. That is what’s happening. China’s economic fundamentals give no reason to assume that China’s growth will stop. It’s political system is under pressure and probably have to evolve but there is also no reason to assume that this cannot happen in a way that allows China’s economy to keep growing. He concluded that China most likely will overtake the United States to become the largest economy in the world in the next few years. As China’s economic growth is translating into growing strategic and political power, it is no longer willing to accept the status quo and US as the sole leader in Asia. Fear and honor, as White argues, are the mainsprings of rivalry between United States and China. China fears that if America remains the leader in Asia, it will use its power and position to limit China’s growth, constrain its influence and undermine its political system. America fears that if China becomes more powerful, it will push America out of Asia, threatening...

Words: 1541 - Pages: 7

Premium Essay

Western Domination

...imperialistic western powers dominated and influenced most of the world. Europe’s power spread until much of the world was controlled and influenced by European business imperialism. The British had acquired direct control over France, India, most of Africa, much of Southeast Asia, South Asia, Malaysia, and the Pacific. They had indirect control over large parts of China, Afghanistan, Persia, Mongolia, and Latin America (Kallander 2/13). The Westward shift of power was brought about with the British domination of foreign trade, the advancement of technology and weapons, and business imperialism. The United States expanded into the Pacific, took over Hawaii and bought Louisiana from the French. The westward shift of power was essential to the rise of global empires and to the start of modernization. Less powerful countries or empires would take ideas from those which were more powerful empires to better advance their society. The expanding western dominance in the world was essential to increasing globalization. The western military dominance symbolized modernization, which was then thought of as industrialization. As western imperialism spread, modernization also spread; the rest of the world had to compete and did so by imitating western militaristic ideas. By building up their own military using western ideas, the unconquered empires could compete and fight against imperialists. The western imperialists continued to conquer and influence regions which were considered minorities...

Words: 1386 - Pages: 6

Free Essay

Students

...A special report on China's place in the world Brushwood and gall China insists that its growing military and diplomatic clout pose no threat. The rest of the world, and particularly America, is not so sure, says Edward Carr Dec 2nd 2010 | from PRINT EDITION • • IN 492BC, at the end of the “Spring and Autumn” period in Chinese history, Goujian, the king of Yue in modern Zhejiang, was taken prisoner after a disastrous campaign against King Fuchai, his neighbour to the north. Goujian was put to work in the royal stables where he bore his captivity with such dignity that he gradually won Fuchai’s respect. After a few years Fuchai let him return home as his vassal. Goujian never forgot his humiliation. He slept on brushwood and hung a gall bladder in his room, licking it daily to feed his appetite for revenge. Yue appeared loyal, but its gifts of craftsmen and timber tempted Fuchai to build palaces and towers even though the extravagance ensnared him in debt. Goujian distracted him with Yue’s most beautiful women, bribed his officials and bought enough grain to empty his granaries. Meanwhile, as Fuchai’s kingdom declined, Yue grew rich and raised a new army. Goujian bided his time for eight long years. By 482BC, confident of his superiority, he set off north with almost 50,000 warriors. Over several campaigns they put Fuchai and his kingdom to the sword. The king who slept on brushwood and tasted gall is as familiar to Chinese as King Alfred and his cakes are to Britons,...

Words: 14821 - Pages: 60

Premium Essay

Indo China Relations

...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS THE CHINA-INDIA-PAKISTAN WATER CRISIS: PROSPECTS FOR INTERSTATE CONFLICT by James F. Brennan September 2008 Thesis Co-Advisors: Alice Lyman Miller Feroz Khan Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED September 2008 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: The China-India-Pakistan Water Crisis: Prospects for 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Interstate Conflict 6. AUTHOR(S) James F. Brennan, Lieutenant, United States Navy 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY...

Words: 18200 - Pages: 73

Free Essay

Can India and China Rise Peacefully?

...Eli GreenspanGVPT409HKastner05-10-2012Can India and China Rise Peacefully?India and China are two of the world’s oldest civilization-states and are now aspiring superpowers engaged in the global economy and possess expanding military capabilities.1Cultural and economic ties date back to Ancient times when the Silk Road was used as a major trade route between the two great countries. Over the course of the 20th century, relations between the two ranged from allying and friendship, to intense conflicts over border disputes.2Despite these crisis’s, the two nations have developed close economic ties that are mutually beneficial. Trade has increased dramatically over the past decade and companies form joint ventures to further ties. History shows that this has not always been the case, and the competitivenature between the two states stems from border disputes from the early 1950s to the late 1980s.3Despite gestures towards a peaceful partnership throughout the 1950s, those gestures were challenged by actions in the disputed territories. The Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, signed in 1954, is an example of such cooperation. However, China nor India 1Malik, Mohan. "India-China Relations: Giants Stir, Cooperate and Compete." Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (2004).2Malik, Mohan. 3 Malik, Mohan.1 followed these closely and still lead to major conflict following these meetings. Nevertheless, this agreement stated the principles as:1.Mutual respect for each other’s territorial...

Words: 2676 - Pages: 11

Premium Essay

The Real Value of the Chinese Yuan

...Introduction Thousands of years ago, China was said to be the most advanced nation in the world. Today, they are still much more advance than most of the countries. China was named by Europeans after the ancient Ch’in Dynasty of the third Century B.C. China continues to be the oldest civilization in the world today. China was the only from the world’s great civilizations to evolve from nearly total isolation from the rest of the world. The primarily result of this was geography: the sea to the east, the Himalayas to the south, the Gobi desert to the north and inhospitable deserts and high plateaus to the west. The Yellow river in China is said to be the source of the first Chinese culture and civilization. There are many different cultures located in China such as the Yangshao culture, Hongshan culture, and Yunnan culture. Ancient Chinese agrarian religion revolved around the worship of natural forces and spirits who controlled the elements and presided over rivers, fields and mountains. Shaman known as wu acted as intermediaries between the human and spiritual worlds and performed rites to insure good weather and harvests and keep evil spirits at bay. Even though China is regarded officially as an atheist state today, it has had an officially recognized religion since 2356 B.C., when science, religion, mythology and government were all linked together. Taoism and Confucianism began to take shape around the 5th and 6th centuries B.C. but evolved from religions...

Words: 6572 - Pages: 27

Premium Essay

Human Resource Mgt -- Case Study

...performance of the two Asian giants as the best testimony of which is the better approach to modernity for developing countries (Gilley 21). Current scholarly interest tends to focus more on evaluating the different development models that China and India embrace. It is easy to find works contrasting the two countries’ economic reforms, political systems, social progress and human development, yet direct comparison between China and India’s building of soft power is lacking. However, the understanding of how China and India build their soft power strength is essential as the two Asian giants, both of which have splendid cultures and a long history, are on the rise and eager to shine in the world stage. To address such inadequacy, this paper intends to present an assessment on China and India’s soft power building and find out who has the lead in the race. 1.2 Structure of the Study The paper is divided into several sections. It begins with a literature review that goes over studies on China and India’s soft power strength. Then, it proceeds to explain the key concept “soft power” using Nye’s classic theoretical framework. Concerning the different nature of the three soft power resources, the three main parts of the paper are organized in different ways. As for the discussion of culture as a soft power resource, the paper focuses on the events, actions, and behaviors that reveal China and India’s efforts to enhance their soft power strength by exploiting their cultural resources. As for...

Words: 7162 - Pages: 29

Free Essay

Strategic Implications from the People’s Republic of China’s Influence in the Americas: Potential Consequences Facing the United States, Brazil &Venezuela

...BUSINESS MANAGEMENT & INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS J. Sebastian Smith The Bahamas October 2011 Title Strategic Implications from the People’s Republic of China’s Influence in the Americas: Potential Consequences facing the United States, Brazil &Venezuela Abstract This research seeks to examine the strategic implications facing the United States of America’s due to its benign interest in the Caribbean and Latin America (Americas) given the People’s Republic of China (China) increasing economic interest in the region. It is intended to first define the current security environment of the Americas and the relations between Brazil and Venezuela with that of the United States of America (United States) and China. Thereafter, China’s economic and domestic agenda in the Americas will be examined with hypotheses of the emerging global power potential growth success, challenges or possible collapse in her foreign policy. The likely consequences facing Brazil, Venezuela and the United States will also be examined. The assessment will be done across a continuum of China’s realized economic growth, development of hostile relations due to competition for scarce energy sources or possible collapse due to the country’s internal problems. Finally, the research seeks to encourage proactive thinking by the United States on China’s increasing political and military influence in the region and its possible underlying agenda of becoming the next global super power or hegemony. ...

Words: 9457 - Pages: 38

Premium Essay

Maritime Power of Chaina

...naval force structure from its coast toward the far seas in an era of interdependent international system. Generally, China is an ancient continental land power with an incomplete oceanic awareness. With the transformation after the Cold War of China’s grand strategy from landward security to seaward security, maritime security interests have gradually become the most essential part of China’s strategic rationale. Undoubtedly, the quest for sea power and sea rights has become Beijing’s main maritime strategic issue. Given China’s escalating maritime politico-economic-military leverage in the Asia-Pacific region, its desire to become a leading sea power embodying global strategic thinking means that it must expand its maritime strategy by developing its navy and preparing for armed confrontation in terms of international relations realism. Conversely, Beijing’s maritime policy leads at the same time towards globalization, which involves multilateralism and strategic coexistence of a more pragmatic kind. This research analyses Chinese maritime strategy in the Asia-Pacific by asking: ‘Whither the Chinese maritime strategy in the ever changing Asia-Pacific security environment since the PRC was established in 1949?’ In general, contemporary China’s national security strategy is closely connected with its maritime strategy and with its comprehensive security plan for its economy, its energy supplies and its...

Words: 115996 - Pages: 464