...Article 1. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK (June 2012) No replay of 2011 in the cards for Canadian and US economies Part 1. Summary of the Article First article that I chose is the outlook for advanced economic and financial market particularly US, European union, Canadian and Chinese market that are strongly influence to the world market. Source of the Information and analysis are IMF World Economic outlook and RBC Economic research for year 2012 and forecast for year 2013. This paper includes several economic issues such us economic recession and growth, risk, Labour market and Inflation additionally monetary policies for central banks. Researcher and forecasters compared those issues for different countries and they aim to differentiate and discuss for each of the countries and market situation. Overall, the world economy faces significant challenges in the recent years and is expected to grow by 3.5% this year. Authors stated some significant issues and problems and explained them in detail. For example, paper includes several subtitles about European risk and recession situation, Finding the right policy for Europe, China is in slow growth stage, Canada and US economic situation and factors that impacted in positive and negative ways on the economy, Labour market volatility, Housing market, Households income and debt status, Consumer spending shift, Businesses that are supporting market, Canada’s dollar appreciation, Fed and other central bank policy, US...
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...Please cite this note as: OECD (2014), “OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: A Post Mortem”, OECD Economics Department Policy Notes, No. 23 February 2014. OECD FORECASTS DURING AND AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: A POST MORTEM OECD Economics Department Policy Note no. 23 February 2014 This Policy Note is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. © OECD 2014 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted...
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...99/14 11 FEBRUARY 1999 The Asian Economic Crisis This paper considers the economic crisis that began in the financial markets of South East Asia in 1997 and the consequences for the economies of the region and the rest of the world. The paper provides a chronology of and explores the factors that led to the crisis. An overview is given of the policy measures that the international financial institutions (IFIs), such as the IMF, have taken to deal with the crisis. Some of the arguments and policy proposals made to try to avoid future crises are also covered. Eshan Karunatilleka ECONOMIC POLICY AND STATISTICS SECTION HOUSE OF COMMONS LIBRARY Recent Library Research Papers include: 98/119 98/120 99/1 Unemployment by Constituency - November 1998 Defence Statistics 1998 The Local Government Bill: Best Value and Council Tax Capping Bill No 5 of 1998-99 16.12.98 22.12.98 08.01.99 99/2 99/3 99/4 Unemployment by Constituency - December 1998 Tax Credits Bill Bill 9 of 1998-9 The Sexual Offences (Amendment) Bill: 'Age of consent' and abuse of a position of trust [Bill 10 of 1998-99] 13.01.99 18.01.99 21.01.99 99/5 99/6 99/7 The House of Lords Bill: 'Stage One' Issues Bill 34 of 1998-99 The House of Lords Bill: Options for 'Stage Two' Bill 34 of 1998-99 The House of Lords Bill: Lords reform and wider constitutional reform Bill 34 of 1998-99 28.01.99 28.01.99 28.01.99 99/8 99/9 99/10 99/11 99/12 Economic Indicators Local Government Finance Settlement:...
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...Icelandic economic crisis 3 2.1 The business cycle 3 2.2 The era of the Irish ‘Celtic Tiger’ 4 2.3 The ‘Financial Vikings’ of Iceland 5 3. Financial crisis response 6 3.1 Government response to the financial crisis 6 3.2 The default decision 10 4. Economic outlook and long-term repercussions 14 5. Conclusion 18 1. Introduction to the financial crisis The Great Recession began in 2007 as the United States housing market fell into a sharp decline. Many economists consider the resulting financial crisis to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. While the crisis can be traced back to a variety of economic origins, the volatility that existed in the world economy from the 1990’s undoubtedly played a large role (Roubini, 2010). The Asian Crisis that arose after the fall of car manufacturer Kia in 1997 and the burst of the Dotcom Bubble in the early 2000’s resulted in many wealthy countries decreasing interest rates to all-time lows to encourage growth in their economies (Roubini, 2010). These low interest rates led consumers, particularly those in the US, to borrow more money than they could afford to repay (Roubini, 2010). During the financial crisis, credit defaults brought the solvency of a number of major international banks into question, and several governments ultimately had to bail out their banking systems (Rose & Spiegel, 2009). Problems that arose primarily in the United States quickly spread around the world due to the...
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...Economy September 2010 UAE Economic Outlook 2010 UAE Economic Outlook 2010 GDP expected to grow in 2010 Inflation expected to drop to 0.4% in 2010 UAE struggled to post a budget surplus in 2009 Dubai World reaches agreement to restructure its debt UAE GDP expected to grow by 0.6% in 2010 The global recession, which started in Q4-2008, halted UAE‟s economic growth significantly. After a 7.5% growth in real GDP in 2008, UAE‟s GDP increased by only 1.3% to reach AED515bn in 2009. Despite the global recession, the non-oil GDP grew by 8.4% in 2009. Due to the decrease in oil prices and production, the non-oil sector contributed 71% of the GDP in 2009 compared to 66% during the previous year. Overall Broad Money supply decreased by 0.3% as of Q2-2010; grew by 5.4% in 2009 The UAE government implemented expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate aggregate demand in 2009. Due to the effects of the recession on the economy, the UAE government wanted to expand the money supply and encourage growth. Money Supply (M1) and Broad Money (M2) grew by 3.7% and 2.2% respectively, while the overall broad money (M3) decreased by 0.25% as of Q2-2010 due to a decrease in government deposits. UAE maintained a budget surplus for its fifth consecutive year The budget surplus in recent years was largely credited to high gas and oil profits due to high oil prices. Total government revenue was almost AED293bn for 2009, a decline of 35% from the previous year, while hydrocarbon...
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...FICCI Economic Outlook Survey July 2011 FICCI, Federation House, 1, Tansen Marg, New Delhi FICCI Economic Outlook Survey – July 2011 About the Survey The seventh round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey was conducted during the period 7th July and 19th July, 2011. As part of the survey, a structured questionnaire was drawn up and sent to economists and financial analysts with a view to gauge their perception and views on topical economic issues as well as to seek their outlook for key macro-economic variables. A total of 13 economists and financial analysts participated in the present survey. These economists and financial analysts largely come from the banking and financial sector. The sample also includes economists and financial analysts from industry and research institutions. The survey participants were asked to provide their forecast for key macro economic variables for the year 2011-12 as well as for Quarter 1 (Apr-June) and Quarter 2 (July-Sep) of 2011-12. In addition to these, views were sought on two topical issues – whether RBI should be prepared to deal with the possibility of another global slowdown and the expected stance of RBI in the forthcoming monetary policy review on July 26th, 2011. The feedback received from the survey participants was aggregated and analyzed. The results obtained are presented in the following pages. The findings of the survey represent the views of respondents and do not reflect the views of FICCI. 2|P a g e FICCI Economic...
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...year’s African Economic Outlook, as the global economy remained weaker and some African countries saw severe domestic problems of various natures. But the world economy is improving and if the AEO 2015 predictions are right, Africa will soon be closing in on the impressive growth levels seen before the 2008/09 global economic crisis. Figure 1. Africa’s economic growth, 2002-16 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(e) 2015(p) 2016(p) Africa Africa excluding Libya Growth rate (%) Note: (e) estimates; (p) projections. Source: Statistics Department, African Development Bank. West Africa achieved relatively high growth of 6% in 2014 despite its battle with the Ebola virus (Box 1). Nigeria’s growth of 6.3% came mainly from non-oil sectors showing that the economy is diversifying. But Southern Africa’s growth fell below 3% as the key South African economy only grew by 1.5%. Overview ii African Economic Outlook © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2015 iii Table 1. Africa’s growth by region, 2013-16 (Real GDP growth in percent) 2013 2014 (e) 2015 (p) 2016 (p) Africa 3.5 3.9 4.5 5.0 Central Africa 4.1 5.6 5.5 5.8 East Africa 4.7 7.1 5.6 6.7 North Africa 1.6 1.7 4.5 4.4 Southern Africa 3.6 2.7 3.1 3.5 West Africa 5.7 6.0 5.0 6.1 Memorandum items: Africa excl. Libya 4.0 4.3 4.3 5.0 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) 4.7 5.2 4.6 5.4 SSA excl. South Africa 5.4 6.2 5.2 6.2 Note: (e) estimates; (p) projections. Source: Statistics Department, African Development Bank. Domestic demand...
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...July‐December 2011 SR/GFC/11‐9 SESRIC REPORTS ON GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS – 9 SESRIC REPORTS ON THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS European Debt Crisis and Impacts on Developing Countries STATISTICAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH AND TRAINING CENTRE FOR ISLAMIC COUNTRIES (SESRIC) 1 SESRIC REPORTS ON GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS – 9 2011‐2 Issue EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS AND IMPACTS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES July – December 2011 SESRIC Reports on Global Financial Crisis : The financial crisis which started in July 2007, when investors lost their confidence in the mortgage‐ and asset‐based securities in the United States, has deepened during 2008‐2009 with a global reach and affecting a wide range of financial and economic activities and institutions in both developed and developing countries around the world. As the crisis deepened, the governments of major developed and developing countries as well as international financial regulators attempted to take some mitigation actions and coordinate efforts to contain the crisis. Given this state of affairs, the SESRIC has been preparing short reports since May 2009 with the aim of monitoring the developments related to the current global financial crisis at the global, regional and national levels. In particular, these reports focus ...
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...Delhi: As chief economic advisor, Kaushik Basu has a bird’s eye view of the Indian economy and is at the same time a key member of the A team of finance minister Pranab Mukherjee. Given his vantage position, the viewpoint of the chief economic advisor is always critical, more so now than ever when the global economy is going through a turbulent phase. Basu took some time off to speak to Mint, just ahead of a key G20 meeting in Seoul, to provide an overview of how India perceives global economic trends. Articulating his thoughts on the latest round of monetary quantitative easing, he proposed a radically different long-term fix for the global economy, held out hope that the persistent domestic inflation would ease and painted a positive economic outlook ahead of next year’s Budget. Edited excerpts: What do you think is the outlook for the global economy? The outlook is best described as mixed; it changes from week-to-week, month-to-month. European unemployment has deteriorated slightly, while US unemployment has held steady at a high of 9.6% for three months. So the expectations on the global front continue to be uncertain. The somewhat risky move that the US has made with the second round of quantitative easing—something that is akin to printing money—is a gamble. It is not all negative, as some make it out to be. But it is a risky move, given the changed structure of the world economy. The relatively benign interpretation of what is happening in the world is that this is a...
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...Economic and Financial Outlook in 2015 External Shocks Creating New Opportunities FSDH Research January 2015 Economic and Financial Outlook: 2015-2019 1.0 Global Economic Growth: According to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), January 2015 Edition, the global economic growth is forecast at 3.5% and 3.7%, for 2015 and 2016 respectively. The forecasts were reviewed downward by 0.3% The IMF forecasts a global economic growth of 3.5% and 3.7% for 2015 and 2016 respectively. relative to the October 2014 WEO. The revisions reflect a reassessment of prospects in China, Russia, the Euro-area, and Japan as well as the weaker activity in some major oil exporters because of the sharp drop in oil prices. The United States (U.S.) is the only major economy for which growth projections have been raised upward. The IMF added that the global growth will receive a boost from the lower oil prices. However, this boost is projected to be more than offset by the negative factors, including investment weakness as adjustment to diminished expectations about medium-term growth continues in many advanced and emerging market economies. The U.S. is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2015 and slow down to 3.3% in 2016, supported by domestic demand due to lower oil prices, more moderate fiscal adjustment, and The U.S. is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2015 and slow down to 3.3% in 2016. continued support from an accommodative monetary policy stance...
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...fiscal stimulation measures ………………………………………………….. 6-7 4.2 money policies ………………………………………………………………….. 7 5.0 reference ………………………………………………………………………………… 8 The Global Financial Crisis and Its Impacts on Developing Countries Origin of Financial Crisis The financial crisis originated form the United States’ economy. In the year 2007 during summer after two Bear Stearns Hedge Funds collapsed resulting to subprime mortgage crisis. This financial crisis reintroduced private defaults, bank failures, massive layoffs and credit crunch to the world. The financial crisis was as a result of too much foreign money from Asian countries like China flowing into the economy of US (Savona, Kirton, & Oldani, 2011). Causes of the Financial Crisis Creation of too much money by the banks had led to the crisis. New money is created when the banks give loans to the public. By giving loans, the banks created a large sums of money during the run up to the financial crisis. Many people had to borrow money from the banks due to availability of credit in order to buy properties which they could not afford (Obstfeld, Cho, & Mason, 2012). After creating too much money between the year 2000 and 2007, that amount of money was put into use in push up for the prices of houses and as well as financial market speculation. Too little amount of money created during that period went into...
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...infrastructure was developed. By 2009, according to World Bank’s Doing Business Project, Egypt’s ranking in the ease of doing business had risen to 106 out of 183 countries, up from its 2008 ranking of 116, making it a World Bank “top ten reformer.” In addition, Egypt had made substantial progress in opening up its economy to global trade, with its rank in the Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010, published by the World Economic Forum, moving up by 11 positions to 70 out of 133 countries. Despite its rise in the rankings, Egypt still has a relatively low level of openness, with exports/GDP at 25%. (Deutsche Bank, 9 Feb. 2010) As a result of its low level of integration with world markets, Egypt was not hit by the global recession to the extent that more “linked” economies were. However, this also means it is less likely to benefit from the recovery in global trade. Prior to the global recession, Egypt had hit its 7% official GDP growth target for 2 years in a row, with 2007 and 2008 growth at 7.1% and 7.2% respectively. This rate of growth had enabled it to reduce unemployment from 10.9% in 2005-06 to 8.1% in 2007-08. In 2008-09, however, unemployment rose to 8.8% and GDP growth slowed to 4.7%. (Figure 1) Although these numbers are not so bad compared to many Western countries, it could still potentially present some big issues for Egypt down the road because it is a country with a very young population. According to the World Bank, 32% of its population is between ages 0 and...
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...Ramp-up, Economic Overhauls By The world’s top finance officials meeting in China this week will urge their counterparts to ramp up spending and speed economic overhauls to revive flagging growth, worried about an overreliance on easy-money policies that could spell trouble for the global economy. A series of global market routs and rising recession risks have raised the stakes for the Group of 20 leading economies as they try to craft a coordinated strategy to boost the world’s economic output and calm investor jitters. The problem is figuring out how to revive demand in a world where central banks are running out of gas and most of the world’s biggest growth engines are downshifting, idling or struggling to get out of first gear. The solution, many G-20 officials have indicated in recent days, is a stronger effort to restructure stagnating economies and increase investment in infrastructure. “We have to commit to using all policy levers,” said U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew in an interview. “The burden shouldn’t be on any one of the policy levers, either excessively or certainly not exclusively.” Worried about a dimming outlook, the International Monetary Fund on Wednesdaycalled on the G-20 to engineer “coordinated demand support, using available fiscal space to boost public investment and complement structural reform.” The temptation, however, will be to keep relying on monetary policy or even currency depreciation to spur exports. Central banks around the world, notably...
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...5170 For more information, please contact us at: enquiry@businessmonitor.com +44 (0)20 7246 5170 South Korea Business Forecast Report Table of contents Executive Summary Core Views Key Risks To Outlook Published Date: 01 Apr 2014 5 5 5 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 11 12 12 12 14 14 14 15 15 16 17 south korea Q1 2014 17 17 21 21 21 21 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 29 30 Chapter 1: Political Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Ratings Domestic Politics Key Themes In 2014 Table: Political Overview Long-Term Political Outlook Constitutional Reform To Improve Governance- Chapter 2: Economic Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Ratings Economic Activity Staying Cautious In 2014 Despite Upside Growth Surprise Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Fiscal Policy Growing Corporate Leverage Posing Increasing Risk TABLE: FISCAL POLICY Monetary Policy BoK To Keep Policy Neutral Till End 2014 TABLE: MONETARY POLICY Balance of Payments south korea Q1 2014 KRW: Further Strength Capped Despite Improving Fundamentals TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast The South Korean Economy to 2022 Robust Growth To 2023 TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts Chapter 4: Business Environment SWOT Analysis BMI Business Environment Risk Business Environment Outlook Institutions Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating Tab le: Lab our Forc e Qua lit y Infrastructure TABLE: ASIA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS Table: Trade And Investment...
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...implications of this process both in the past and in the present as it includes three main characteristics, increases in international trade, investment and finance. Nayyar defines globalisation as a “deepening economic integration in the world economy” and is cautious to advise that this process is neither symmetrical nor new. Paradoxically he points out that whilst globalisation in the new era advocates free trade, this freedom is limited to the flow of goods and services whilst restricting the movement in labour. The period 1870-1914 was a true era of free trade, where the dominant ideology was economic liberalism. This was an era of rapid growth in international trade, finance and investment where statistics showed that Western Europe was the engine of this growth. In theory it was believed that trade liberalization was the sole variable responsible for the expansion in international trade. Nayyar points out that the increase in international trade was more the result of a strategy to increase trade between the developing world and the developed world than trade liberalization. Likewise international investment expanded rapidly between 1870 and 1914. This investment formed a significant part of the output for the developing and industrializing world and was a source of income for the net...
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