Junior Qualifying Exam Paul Gronke, Advisor

Dan Toffey 27 March 2006

LITERATURE REVIEW OUTLINE
Introduction I. History of 1994 (Bader 1996; Balz & Brownstein 1996) A. 1992 Presidential Election i. Democrat president ii. Full Republican Minority/Democrat Majority B. Newt Gingrich & GOP Leadership C. Contract with America i. How it was conceived ii. Who the main players were iii. Who/what decided what was on it (Lathrop 2003) a. Standard Republican issues b. Populist issues iv. How was it marketed v. Who it helped (Abramowitz 1995) vi. Why it worked a. Funneled money to needy campaigns (Abramowitz 1995) b. Stalled Democratic legislative initiatives  ineffective (Jacobson 1996) c. Forced Democrats in competitive districts to retire (Jacobson 1996) D. Results of election II. Why was the 1994 Election a surprise? A. Conventional signals suggested nothing was out of the ordinary (Balz & Brownstein 1996; Campbell 1997) B. Inadequate models (Busch 1995) i. Not precise enough a. No measure for levels of animosity towards Clinton b. No measure of apathy towards Democrats ii. Too precise a. No attention to actual concerns b. Changing morals iii. Difficulty in accounting for Perot supporters in 1992 (Campbell 1997; Connelly & Pitney 1994) C. Convention of all politics being “local” (Jacobson 1996) D. Suppression of realignment (Campbell 1997) i. Suppressed by the strangle hold of Democrats in the South ii. The gains Republicans should’ve made there but didn’t because of weak challengers obscured academic understanding of electoral behavior III. Explanations A. Disaffection with Government (Balz & Brownstein 1996; Jacobson 1996)

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i. Lowered trust (Klinkner 1996) a. Lowered steadily since LBJ in 1964 b. Contributed to by Vietnam, Watergate, and various other scandals ii. Mobilized conservatives/apathetic liberals a. Court vs. Country: against the status quo (Klinkner 1996) • Big government • Civil rights • Questioned central gov’t legitimacy b. Angry white male? (Reeher & Cammarano 1996) • Mobilized/energized white conservative males • Apathetic unmobilized liberal females c. Dem missteps (Klinkner 1996) iii. Economic stagnation (Connelly & Pitney 1994; Klinkner 1996) a. Slow growth since WWII b. Declining real income, job security, poverty (Reeher & Cammarano 1996) iv. Talk radio (Bolce et al. 1996) a. Growing influence b. Appeal to populist anti-government sentiment c. More engaged & mobilized B. Dealignment vs. Realignment i. Dealignment a. Popular way of explaining the disconnect between President and Congressional behavior b. Undercut by 1994 as a realignment (Campbell 1997; Frymer 1996) ii. Realignment a. Long-term Ideological shift since the 1980s (Abramowitz & Saunders 1998) • Greater issue awareness • Greater polarization • Conservative gains in the South • Intergenerational shift b. Realignment suppressed by civil rights (Brooks 2000) • If Democrats were not civil rights party, Republican realignment would’ve happened sooner. c. Realignment assisted by Christian Right (Moen 1996; Soper 1996) • More pragmatic approach • Key financial/organizational resources for GOP • Downplay on divisive moral issues d. 1994  Brought Southern realignment up to speed (Frymer 1996) • Financed Republican challengers

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• IV. Research Design Still to read:

Nationalized elections – Dem candidates no longer able to distance themselves from Clinton

Little, Thomas H. “On the Coattails of a Contract: RNC Activities and Gains in the 1994 Legislative Elections.” Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 51, No.1 (Mar., 1998), pp. 173-190 [JSTOR] Sinclair, Barbara “Transformational Leader or Faithful Agent? Principal-Agent Theory and House Majority Party Leadership.” Legislative Studies Quarterly, Vol. 24, No. 3 (Aug., 1999), pp. 421-449 [JSTOR] Stonecash, Jeffrey M.; Mariani, Mack D. “Republican Gains in the House in the 1994 Elections: Class Polarization in American Politics.” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 115, No. 1, (Spring, 2000), pp. 93-113 [JSTOR] Hacker, Jacob S. Off Center: The Republican Revolution and the Erosion of American Democracy. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2005 [Reed Catalog, ‘Republican Revolution’; Demise of Liberalism class]

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