100 – largest in row, 0 – smallest in row. Pull largest out to side and smallest is thing to do. Decision Making is uncertainty – DECISION UNDER RISK For this use EMV – Expected Monetary Value Chart = Good Normal Bad – Added Normal. Good = 40%, Normal and Bad are 30% each. Good = 100, Normal = 20, Bad = -70 .4x100+.3x20+.3x-70 Answer is EMV Largest between LP, SP, Nothing is your decision under risk Example in text book EMVI – check box in software Opportunity Lost .5 x each number
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Table of contents Topic Page no. 1. Introduction to Data Mining 3 2. Characteristics and Objectives of Data Mining 3 3. Data type in Data Mining
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Exotic Adventures Inc: The Amazon River Voyage Case Synopsis Exotic Adventures Inc (EAI) operates voyages along the full length of the Amazon River from Belem, Brazil, on the Atlantic Coast to Iquitos, Peru. They normally operate in high water season and were now offering trips during the low water season also. Unfortunately EAI received reports from Brazilian authorities that waters were unusually low this year but Peruvian authorities indicated all was fine. State the Assignment Question Due
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Suggestion 3.1: Using the Steps of the Decision-Making Process. The six steps used in decision theory are discussed in this chapter. Students can be asked to describe a decision they made in the last semester, such as buying a car or selecting an apartment, and describe the steps that they took. This will help in getting students involved in decision theory. It will also help them realize how this material can be useful to them in making important personal decisions. Teaching Suggestion 3.2: Importance
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14 Decision Analysis Learning Objectives 1. Learn how to describe a problem situation in terms of decisions to be made, chance events and consequences. 2. Be able to analyze a simple decision analysis problem from both a payoff table and decision tree point of view. 3. Be able to develop a risk profile and interpret its meaning. 4. Be able to use sensitivity analysis to study how changes in problem inputs affect or alter the recommended decision.
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Decision Making and Communication Joe Ashford Sherri H. Lu, PhD MHA 601: Principles of Healthcare Administration January 10, 2011 Introduction The case study presents multiple multifaceted dilemmas for the president of Community Medical Center. One surgical nurse is suspected of having HIV/AIDS. The chief of surgery requests the removal of this nurse from the operating room or else he and many of the other surgeons will start scheduling their patients in different facilities
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CENTRAL ISSUE: Sabor, Inc. is facing a potential shortage of supply of marconil, a new high-tech raw material for air filtration. During the past three weeks Sabor has been approached by three suppliers advising of this potential shortage and encouraging Sabor to sign long-term supplier contracts for the product to hedge against shortage. Sabor is not well-informed on the manufacturing process for marconil, however we are aware that two of the three component raw materials used to produce marconil
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spanning tree Text: BRS 5.8, 5.9 Class 6: Game theory Introduction to game theory: Types of game, Two person zero-sum game, concept of saddle point, dominance rule Text: WW 14.1, 14.2 Class 7: Game theory (contd.) Mixed startegy, Linear programming formulation Text: WW 14.2, 14.3 Class 8: Mid-term Test Class 9: Markov chain Introduction to stochastic processes, markov chains, transition probability matrix, steadystate probabilities. Text: Handouts and WW 17.1, 17.2, 17.3 Class 10: Decision theory
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Science, 10e (Taylor) Chapter 12 Decision Analysis 1) A state of nature is an actual event that may occur in the future. Answer: TRUE Diff: 1 Page Ref: 527 Main Heading: Components of Decision Making Key words: state of nature 2) A payoff table is a means of organizing a decision situation, including the payoffs from different decisions given the various states of nature. Answer: TRUE Diff: 1 Page Ref: 527 Main Heading: Components of Decision Making Key words: payoff table
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Science, 10e (Taylor) Chapter 12 Decision Analysis 1) A state of nature is an actual event that may occur in the future. Answer: TRUE Diff: 1 Page Ref: 527 Main Heading: Components of Decision Making Key words: state of nature 2) A payoff table is a means of organizing a decision situation, including the payoffs from different decisions given the various states of nature. Answer: TRUE Diff: 1 Page Ref: 527 Main Heading: Components of Decision Making Key words: payoff table
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