...01.06.2012 [APSSRA 2012, May 25, 2012 ] Bayesian Updating in Structural Reliability Daniel Straub Engineering Risk Analysis Group TU München Ever increasing amounts of information are available Sensor data Satelite data Spatial measurements on structures Advanced simulation Sources: Frey et al. (in print); Gehlen et al. (2010); Michalski et al (2011); Schuhmacher et al. (2011) 2 1 01.06.2012 1973: 3 Probabilistic Updating of Flaw Information Tang (1973) • Imperfect information through inspection modeled by probability-ofdetection: 4 2 01.06.2012 Probabilistic Updating of Flaw Information Tang (1973) 5 Updating models and reliability computations with (indirect) information • Bayes‘ rule: ∝ 6 3 01.06.2012 How to compute the reliability of a geotechnical site conditional on deformation monitoring outcomes? -> Integrate Bayesian updating in structural reliability methods 7 Prior model in structural reliability • Failure domain: Ω 0 • Probability of failure: Pr ∈Ω d 8 4 01.06.2012 Information in structural reliability • Inequality information: Ω 0 • Conditional probability of failure: Pr | Pr ∩ Pr ∈ Ω ∩Ω ∈Ω d d 9 Information in structural reliability • Equality information: Ω 0 • Conditional probability of failure: Pr | Pr ∩ Pr 0 0 ? 10 5 01.06.2012 In statistics, information is expressed as likelihood function • Likelihood...
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...2007, I set out to test effectuation principles and dynamic process in a publicly founded start-up-program in Austria. The results where compiled into the MBA master thesis Entrepreneurship with Effectuation: Testing an Innovative Approach to Business Start-UpSupport (Faschingbauer 2008). In this paper, I would like to present the outcomes after introducing the effectual “Bird-in-Hand” principle to a group of seven novice entrepreneurs in the process of their start-up preparation. 1 Abstract of my master thesis The support structures for business start-ups in Austria are based on causal assumptions about how one should start a business. One starts with the recognition of an opportunity, which needs to be concretized and developed through analysis and planning. According to the effectuation framework by Saras D. Sarasvathy (Sarasvathy 2008), expert entrepreneurs choose a radically different way. Effectuators allow goal ambiguity, they prefer partnerships and alliances to competitive strategies, make use of risk reducing schemes and opt for controlling the future instead of relying on predicting it. In my thesis, the learnable and teachable elements of effectuation were practically tested in a training scheme with entrepreneurs during start-up preparation. It was shown that effectuation training can directly influence the entrepreneurs’ thinking and acting. There where apparent effects in the diversity and the variety of their goals, the establishment of partnerships, precommitments...
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...Rehabilitation of Acromioclavicular Joint Separations: Operative and Nonoperative Considerations Mark P. Cote, PT, DPTa, Karen E. Wojcik, MSPT, ATCb, Gregg Gomlinski, MSPT, CSCSb, Augustus D. Mazzocca, MS, MDa,* Acromioclavicular joint (AC) separations are one of the most common injuries seen in orthopedic and sports medicine practices, accounting for 9% of all injuries to the shoulder girdle.1–3 Various operative and nonoperative treatment schemes have been described for the management of AC joint injuries.4–33 Although considerable controversy exists over the efficacy of surgical reconstruction versus nonoperative intervention for grade III type injuries, grade I and II separations seem to respond favorably to conservative management. Conversely, grades IV, V, and VI often require surgical reconstruction. Regardless of the type of injury, rehabilitation as a part of conservative management and postoperative care plays an important role in the management of these injuries. This article presents the authors’ rehabilitation approach to treatment of acromioclavicular separations pre- and postoperatively. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK To provide instruction and insight for rehabilitation clinicians, protocols are often provided for a specific injury or procedure. A protocol is a system of rules or procedures for a given situation. Although intended to be informative, protocols often result in a restrictive list of exercises and arbitrary time frames that a clinician...
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...2 2.1 The General Environment The General Environment 2.2 Scanning, Monitoring, and Forecasting Changes in the Environment 2.3 Scenario Planning 2.4 PEST Analysis 2.5 SWOT Analysis 2.6 The General and the Competitive Environments Key Work Strategic decision making under conditions of uncertainty Key Work Strategic inflection points and their impact on strategy Tools and Techniques Writing a PEST analysis Tools and Techniques Undertaking scenario planning ➜ Main Reference Schoemaker, P.J.H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25. Learning Objectives After completing this chapter you should be able to: • Define what constitutes the general environment • Evaluate the role of scanning and monitoring in detecting environmental trends • Apply scenario planning to decision making in uncertain environments • Evaluate PEST as a framework for analysing the macro-environment • Explain the use of SWOT analysis • Evaluate the relationship between the general and the competitive environment 37 Introduction In the previous chapter we looked at what strategy is and introduced a number of different perspectives on strategy formulation. We addressed the importance of values in determining why an organization exists, and looked at how an organization’s values, its vision, and its mission guide individuals’ behaviour by signposting what is important to the organization. We explained the importance...
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...AMERICANPSYCHO Mads Hust Silkeborg Gymnasium Engelsk A v. Marianne Johnsen Samfundsfag A v. Carsten Busch Højmark Mads Hust Silkeborg Gymnasium Engelsk A v. Marianne Johnsen Samfundsfag A v. Carsten Busch Højmark Abstract The purpose of this paper is to examine whether or not the high level of superficial narcissism, which is portrayed in American Psycho, is still an issue in postmodern society. The paper accounts for the origin of the term “narcissism” and outlines the most well-known and relevant social theories on the subject. Furthermore, the paper provid-es a thorough analysis of American Psycho, focussing on narrative technique and the detailed setting described in the novel. The novels main protagonist, Patrick Bateman, symbolizes the postmodern narcissist in many ways, and even though it’s a work of fiction, the novel provides a comprehensive picture of the yuppie-environment in the 80’s. At last, the paper discusses whether or not the theme of the novel is still present in modern-day society and whether or not the narcissistic tendencies are a subject of concern. By comparing the novel to the theories of Christopher Lasch, Lars Lundmann Jensen and more, as well as empirical data, the paper concludes that narcissism in postmodern society is very much present. The new technology has provided the individual with new possibilities for self-promotion, especially through the extensive use of social media. Indholdsfortegnelse En lille appetitvækker 1 ...
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...INTRODUCTION Normally Bangladesh is country where most people suffer from malnutrition. There are lots of people who suffer from this problem, to eradicate every government take many steps. But not always every step bears fruits. In most cases these steps wont work. Because of lack of monitoring and awareness efforts. The government efforts are given; The public health nutrition program under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of Bangladesh is operated through Institute of Public Health Nutrition (IPHN) and two major programs under the Health, Nutrition and Population Sector Program (HNPSP). These two programs are Micronutrient Supplementation (MS) and National Nutrition Program (NNP). The IPHN and MS work under the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) and the NNP works directly under the ministry. Conventionally the director of IPHN works as the line director of MS, and nutrition programs of both IPHN and MS are carried out under one platform. The programs include: (a) Control of micro-nutrient deficiencies focusing nutritional blindness of vitamin A; (b) Control of Protein Energy Malnutrition (PEM); (c) Control and prevention of iron deficiency and other nutritional anemia; (d) Control of iodine deficiency disorders and other micronutrient problems; (e) School health nutrition education program targeting school children; and (f) Revitalization of existing baby friendly hospitals. The programs of IPHN and MS cover the entire country. The coverage of NNP,...
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...INTRODUCTION Normally Bangladesh is country where most people suffer from malnutrition. There are lots of people who suffer from this problem, to eradicate every government take many steps. But not always every step bears fruits. In most cases these steps wont work. Because of lack of monitoring and awareness efforts. The government efforts are given; The public health nutrition program under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of Bangladesh is operated through Institute of Public Health Nutrition (IPHN) and two major programs under the Health, Nutrition and Population Sector Program (HNPSP). These two programs are Micronutrient Supplementation (MS) and National Nutrition Program (NNP). The IPHN and MS work under the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) and the NNP works directly under the ministry. Conventionally the director of IPHN works as the line director of MS, and nutrition programs of both IPHN and MS are carried out under one platform. The programs include: (a) Control of micro-nutrient deficiencies focusing nutritional blindness of vitamin A; (b) Control of Protein Energy Malnutrition (PEM); (c) Control and prevention of iron deficiency and other nutritional anemia; (d) Control of iodine deficiency disorders and other micronutrient problems; (e) School health nutrition education program targeting school children; and (f) Revitalization of existing baby friendly hospitals. The programs of IPHN and MS cover the entire country. The coverage of NNP,...
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...se A Global Uniform Standard for Secure Service Provision over 4G Infrastructures. 4G Networks:Generation of Wireless network Since their birth in the early seventeenth and all along their di_erent generations, mobile communication networks have crossed important evolutionary phases aiming to de_ne increasingly sophisticated technologies allowing the provision of seamless global roaming, quality of service, and high data rates. Today, numerous technologies are co-existing to provide a unifying set of services. The coming era of 4th generation networks is foreseeing a potential smooth merging of all these heterogeneous technologies. A 4G network is characterized by the integration and the convergence of all communication networks, which are intrinsically characterized by their diversity, their heterogeneity, and their dynamicity, into one network. The main challenges raised by this network are the guarantee of seamless global roaming, the provision of cost effective high data rates, the definition of efficient user-centric customized service models, and the optimization of the quality of service provision. 1.1:Generation: 1.1.1:Wireless first generation overview (1G) 1G (or 1-G) refers to the first generation of wireless telephone technology...
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...Securing Cisco Routers (SECR) Glossary A AAA ABEND Access Access attacks Authentication, Authorization, Accounting. Allows all facets of user security to be defined on a central server. Abnormal END. Abnormal termination of software. 1.) In dealing with network security it is an all-encompassing term that refers to unauthorized data manipulation, system access, or privileged escalation. An all-encompassing term that refers to unauthorized data manipulation, system access, or privileged escalation. Unauthorized data retrieval is simply reading, writing, copying, or moving files that are not intended to be accessible to the intruder. Limiting the flow of information from the resources of a system to only the authorized persons or systems in the network. See ACE. access control Access Control Entry access control list See ACL. access device access layer Access Method Hardware component used in your signaling controller system: access server or mux. The point at which local end users are allowed into the network. 1.) Generally, the way in which network devices access the network medium. 2.) Software within an SNA processor that controls the flow of information through a network. Defines access rights and privileges for the network users. The access policy should provide guidelines for connecting external networks, connecting devices to a network, and adding new software to systems. The remote computer system which connects a personal computer to the Internet. Access Virtual...
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...angefertigt zu haben. Der Veröffentlichung der Bachelorarbeit in der Bibliothek der Hochschule Aschaffenburg wird zugestimmt. Aschaffenburg, den 28.02.2013 Effects of the European Debt Crisis on the German Real Estate Market Bachelorarbeit von Sebastian Stollhof 28.02.2013 Effects of The European Debt Crisis on the German Real Estate Market Autor: Sebastian Stollhof An der Bergleite 3 67806 Rockenhausen Erstprüfer: Prof. Dr. Paschedag HOCHSCHULE ASCHAFFENBURG FAKULTÄT WIRTSCHAFT UND RECHT WÜRZBURGER STRASSE 45 D-63743 ASCHAFFENBURG Table of Content TABLE OF EXHIBITS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 1 EMERGENCE OF THE DEBT CRISIS 1.1 Macroeconomic problems 1.1.1 The imbalance of public authorities 1.1.2 Strongly diverging current account balances 1.1.3 Strongly diverging price- and wage developments 1.2 Specific problems within the monetary union VIII IX 1 1 1 5 10 12 1.2.1 Interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) 12 1.2.2 Membership within the EMU increases insolvency risk for states 1.2.3 National fiscal policy versus central monetary policy 2 GERMAN HOUSING MARKET – PRICE BUBBLE OR SAFE HAVEN? 2.1 Definition of price bubbles 2.2 Explanatory approaches for real estate bubbles 2.2.1 Macroeconomic factors 2.2.2 Institutional explanatory approaches 2.2.3 Behaviour-based explanatory approaches 15 17 20 20 21 21 21 23 Table of Content – Page VI 2.3 Overview and development of the German housing market 2.4 Analysis of the German residential...
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...Copyright © The British Psychological Society Reproduction in any form (including the internet) is prohibited without prior permission from the Society 57 Legal and Criminological Psychology (2010), 15, 57–75 q 2010 The British Psychological Society The British Psychological Society www.bpsjournals.co.uk The truth about lies: What works in detecting high-stakes deception? Stephen Porter* and Leanne ten Brinke University of British Columbia Okanagan, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada In this paper, we provide our view of the current understanding of high-stakes lies often occurring in forensic contexts. We underscore the importance of avoiding widespread pitfalls of deception detection and challenging prevailing assumptions concerning strategies for catching liars. The promise and limitations of each of non-verbal/body language, facial, verbal/linguistic, and physiological channels in detecting deception are discussed. In observing the absence of a single cue or behavioural channel that consistently reveals deception, a holistic approach with concurrent attention to multiple channels of a target’s behaviour (ideally videotaped for review) and changes from baseline behaviour is recommended whenever possible. Among the best-validated cues to be considered together include: illustrators, blink and pause rate, speech rate, vague descriptions, repeated details, contextual embedding, reproduction of conversations, and emotional ‘leakage’ in the face. While...
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...überarbeitete Auflage Bibliografische Information der Deutschen Nationalbibliothek Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über abrufbar. 1. Auflage 2005 2. Auflage 2009 Alle Rechte vorbehalten © VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften | GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2009 Lektorat: Frank Schindler VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften ist Teil der Fachverlagsgruppe Springer Science+Business Media. www.vs-verlag.de Das Werk einschließlich aller seiner Teile ist urheberrechtlich geschützt. Jede Verwertung außerhalb der engen Grenzen des Urheberrechtsgesetzes ist ohne Zustimmung des Verlags unzulässig und strafbar. Das gilt insbesondere für Vervielfältigungen, Übersetzungen, Mikroverfilmungen und die Einspeicherung und Verarbeitung in elektronischen Systemen. Die Wiedergabe von Gebrauchsnamen, Handelsnamen, Warenbezeichnungen usw. in diesem Werk berechtigt auch ohne besondere Kennzeichnung nicht zu der Annahme, dass solche Namen im Sinne der Warenzeichen- und Markenschutz-Gesetzgebung als frei zu betrachten wären und daher von jedermann benutzt werden dürften. Umschlaggestaltung: KünkelLopka Medienentwicklung, Heidelberg Druck und buchbinderische Verarbeitung: Krips b.v., Meppel Gedruckt auf säurefreiem und chlorfrei gebleichtem Papier Printed in the Netherlands ISBN 978-3-531-16172-3 Für Henri, Simon und Ole Vorwort der Herausgeber Staat und öffentliche Verwaltung...
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...Arturo Alcaraz (Philippines) - Instrumental in a team of scientists, who in 1967 were able to harness steam from a volcano resulting in the production of electricity. Diosdado Banatao (Philippines) - Improved computer performance throughthe development of accelerator chips, helping to make the Internet a reality. Marie Curie (Poland) - Winner of two Nobel Prizes in Chemistry and Physicsfor her studies into Radioactivity and her discoveries of Radium and Polonium. Paul Dirac (England) - An important contributor in the fields of QuantumMechanics and Electro Dynamics, Dirac was co-winner of the Nobel Prize inPhysics (1933). Albert Einstein (Germany) - Arguably needing no introduction, the most famous scientist that lived and a name that has become synonymous in popular culture with the highest intelligence. Enrico Fermi (Italy) - Heavily involved in the development of the world's first nuclear reactor and his work in induced radioactivity saw him awarded with the 1938 Nobel Prize in Physics. Vitaly Ginzburg (Russia) - One of three recipients of the 2003 Nobel inPhysics for their pioneering work in the theory of superconductors and superfluids. Christiaan Huygens (Netherlands) - Most well known for his wave theory of light, Huygens is credited with discovering the first of Saturn's moons. Werner Israel (Canada) - In 1990 Israel co-pioneered a study on black hole interiors. Ali Javan (Iran) - Born in Tehran, Ali Javan is listed as one of the top 100 living...
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...Volume 38 Number 5 May 2014 Pages 1811–2146 NJC New Journal of Chemistry www.rsc.org/njc A journal for new directions in chemistry Themed issue: Advanced complex inorganic nanomaterials ISSN 1144-0546 PERSPECTIVE Pascal Van Der Voort et al. Vanadium metal–organic frameworks: structures and applications NJC PERSPECTIVE Published on 04 November 2013. Downloaded by American University of Beirut on 07/11/2014 07:39:04. View Article Online View Journal | View Issue Cite this: New J. Chem., 2014, 38, 1853 Vanadium metal–organic frameworks: structures and applications Pascal Van Der Voort,*a Karen Leus,a Ying-Ya Liu,a Matthias Vandichel,b Veronique Van Speybroeck,b Michel Waroquierb and Shyam Biswasa This perspective review paper describes the V-containing metal–organic frameworks that have been developed since the first systematic reports on MOFs almost 15 years ago. These hybrid crystalline materials, containing V(III) or V(IV) as metal nodes, show interesting behavior in oxidation catalysis and gas sorption. A significant amount of papers has appeared on the use of these structures in gas (hydrocarbon, CO2) separation. Promising future research and development of V-MOFs is suggested. Received (in Montpellier, France) 20th September 2013, Accepted 1st November 2013 DOI: 10.1039/c3nj01130e www.rsc.org/njc Introduction While MOFs based on divalent metals (Zn2+, Cu2+) have received much attention in the literature, fewer papers have appeared on...
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...Ethical Hacking 1 Running head: ETHICAL HACKING: Teaching Students to Hack Ethical Hacking: Teaching Students to Hack Regina D. Hartley East Carolina University Ethical Hacking 2 Abstract One of the fastest growing areas in network security, and certainly an area that generates much discussion, is that of ethical hacking. The purpose of this study is to examine the literature regarding how private sectors and educational institutions are addressing the growing demand for ethical hacking instruction. The study will also examine the opportunity for community colleges in providing this type of instruction. The discussion will conclude with a proposed model of ethical hacking instruction that will be used to teach a course in the summer semester of 2006 through the continuing education department at Caldwell Community College and Technical Institute within the North Carolina Community College System. Ethical Hacking 3 Ethical Hacking: Teaching Students to Hack The growing dependence and importance regarding information technology present within our society is increasingly demanding that professionals find more effective solutions relating to security concerns. Individuals with unethical behaviors are finding a variety of ways of conducting activities that cause businesses and consumers much grief and vast amounts annually in damages. As information security continues to be foremost on the minds of information technology professionals, improvements in this area are critically...
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