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Geography of the 2012 U.S. Election

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The 2012 Presidential Election has just come to a close, leaving much data to be analyzed. One piece of this data is the geographical information related to the outcome of the election, which is often used to find relations between demographics and regions. These relations can be defined country wide or more specifically, when studying states called swing states. It is said that the results of these swing states can determine the outcome of the entire election. The overall geography of the 2012 Election looked like what most expected it to, with Obama winning with 332 of the electoral votes to Romney's 206 (Andrews, Bartz and Tumgoren). In fact, Nate silver, of the New York Times, correctly predicted every single state's winner. Regions that went to Obama include the West Coast, the Northwest, the Northeast, and Megalopolis. While regions that went to Romney include the Great Plains, the South and the majority of the Rocky Mountains and Great Basin region. However, not all of these regions went entirely to one candidate or the other. In the South, Obama won Florida, as well as Colorado and New Mexico in the Great Plains. Another split region was the Rocky Mountain and Great Basin region, with Romney winning Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming and Obama winning Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico (Andrews, Bartz and Tumgoren). This divide between Obama and Romney in different states and regions begins to show a pattern. The majority of states that Obama won are states with bigger cities, meaning bigger populations. When it comes to demographics, there were a few different groups that came into the picture in making a difference for the winner. The most predominate ones being age and race. For example, exit

poll results showed that Americans under 30, who made up 19% of the voting population, voted for Obama by 23 points, while seniors voted for Romney by 12 points (Todd, Murray, Montanaro and Brower; Jones). Additionally, Obama received 93% of black voters' votes, 71% of Latinos and 73% of Asians, making up 42% of Obama's supporters. Romney only received 10% of his votes from the same three races (Todd, Murray, Montanaro and Brower; Thompson). These two examples make it clear that age and race made a big difference in who was receiving more votes. Out of the 8 key swing states in this election, which were Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin, Ohio was by far the most talked about this year. It has actually been the most discussed swing state for many past years as well, as it has been a "general election bellwether since 1980" ("Key Swing States in 2012."). Ohio ended up being won by Obama in this election. The geography of voting in Ohio can give some insight into why and how this happened. When looking at the individuals counties in Ohio, it's clear that most of the counties that went to Obama did so because of the major cities located within those counties. For example, both Cuyahoga County and Franklin County went to be Obama with 68.8% and 60.1% of votes (Andrews, Bartz and Tumgoren). Both of those counties hold some of the biggest cities in the state: Cleveland and Columbus. Whereas a county with a smaller population density, Adams County, was won by Romney with 62% of votes, leaving Obama only 35.8% (Andrews, Bartz and Tumgoren). The demographic patterns of Ohio turned out to be similar to that of the entire United States. Age and race differences within the state affected votes similarly as it did within the entire country. When it came to age, Obama received 63% of the statewide votes from voters under the age of 30. Romney, on the other hand, only received 35% of votes from this age group. Throughout the country, Romney won the votes of seniors by a long-shot. This was not entirely true with Ohio, but Romney still won with 55%. Race was another characteristic that appeared to led votes one way or another. 79% of voters in Ohio are white and 57% of those votes went to Romney. That left the 15% black population giving 96% of their

votes to Obama ("Ohio Presidential Election Results."). Racial related votes can be seen in more detail by comparing two counties in Ohio. According to the 2012 census, Cuyahoga county has a population density of 2,800 people per square mile, 61% of which is white and 29% black. Adams county has a 48.9 person per square mile population density, with 97% being white and 0% black. This information helps explain why Obama won Cuyahoga county and Romney won Adams county. Since 96% of black votes in Ohio went to Obama, it can only make sense that Adams county, with no black voters, won't have as many votes for Obama. Another thing that came into play with voters in Ohio was jobs, specifically manufacturing jobs versus industrial jobs. Ohio has long been home to jobs in both fields, which have since been on a decline. So much so that the unemployment rate in Ohio is now below the national average (Andrews, Bartz and Tumgoren). The fact that Obama is a supporter of the federal bailout of the auto industry greatly helped his status with the white working-class voters in Ohio. This demographic giving more of Obama their votes is something that differed from the majority of the country, where most white working-class voters, specifically males, voted for Romney (Cohen). These votes fueled by Obama's support of the auto bailout also helped because of the location of the state's auto industry. It is primarily located in Cuyahoga County, a county with a large population. On the other hand, the industrial jobs caused Obama to lose votes. In southeastern Ohio, which is part of Appalachia, coal has been a big economic driver. Romney was able to gain the votes of this demographic by attacking Obama's energy policies. Unfortunately for Romney, these votes were not enough to swing the whole state to the right. Although many southeastern regions voted Romney, their population is very small compared to other counties. Therefore, their votes only counted towards 10% of the entire state (Cohen). The divisions in the state of Ohio very closely reflected those of the national divisions and the election outcome. The differences between race, age, and population density all seemed to have the same

effect on the election. When Romney won the senior vote in Ohio, he won the senior vote in the United States. This also occurred with Obama and the under 30 age group. Another visible similarity with Ohio's divisions and the nation's divisions was the relation between population density and vote outcome. Within Ohio, nearly all rural areas were won by Romney. This showed to be true with the U.S., and visa versa with bigger cities being won by Obama. All of these different outcomes show that the voting patterns that occurred country wide mirrored those that occurred in Ohio. Thus showing that what happens in a presidential election within an important swing state can be a direct image of what is going to happen with the whole country.

Works Cited

Andrews, Wilson, Jason Bartz, and Serdar Tumgoren. "2012 Presidential Election Results."The Washington Post. N.p., n.d. Web. 14 Nov. 2012.

Cohen, Micah. "In Ohio, Polls Show Benefit of Auto Rescue to Obama." FiveThirtyEight Blog. The New York Times, 5 Nov. 2012. Web. 14 Nov. 2012.

Jones, Robert P. "How values, demographics and the economy helped shape the election."Washington Post. N.p., 7 Nov. 2012. Web. 14 Nov. 2012.

"Key Swing States in 2012." Google Maps. N.p., 15 Apr. 2012. Web. 14 Nov. 2012.

"Ohio Presidential Election Results." Elections Results: Presidential, Governor, Congressional. NBC News, n.d. Web. 14 Nov. 2012.

Thompson, Derek. "2 Graphs That Should Accompany Every Discussion of the GOP's Demographics Problem." The Atlantic. N.p., 9 Nov. 2012. Web. 14 Nov. 2012.

Todd, Chuck, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower. "First Thoughts: Obama's demographic edge." First Read. NBC News, 7 Nov. 2012. Web. 14 Nov. 2012.

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