Premium Essay

Is There Still a Role for Judgment in Decision-Making?

In:

Submitted By joxin25
Words 732
Pages 3
A growing number of management tomes seem to advise against applying human judgment when making key decisions, notes Professor Jim Heskett. Is good old-fashioned intuition out of date? What do YOU think?

by James Heskett

In the last several years, a veritable tsunami of advice on how to make decisions has hit the Internet and what few shelves remain in our local bookstores. The advice is a distant relative of early ideas about decision theory in which we were advised to construct decision trees, mapping outcomes, attaching values to each one, and estimating probabilities that various combinations of outcomes might occur. Judgment entered into the construction of the resulting "decision trees," but the process itself was a way of injecting a certain amount of objectivity and analysis into the decision to be made.

In recent years, we have been advised to make certain decisions in a "blink" by Malcolm Gladwell, to "think twice" by Michael Mauboussin, and to think "fast and slow" by Daniel Kahneman. The replacement of customs and biases with data, "big" or "small," has been intended, at least in part, to drive out such things as tradition, habit, and even superstition in endeavors ranging from child rearing to professional sports. After all, wasn't the book and film, Moneyball, at least in part a glorification of the triumph of statistics and probabilities over intuition and managerial judgment in professional baseball?

Two recent books add to the genre of advice on decision-making. One advises us how to make better decisions. The other helps us ensure that we don't allow our decisions to get sidetracked (or sidetrack them ourselves).

In their book Decisive, the Heath brothers cite four major reasons—all linked to common human traits—why we make poor choices and how to avoid doing it. They are: (1) the "narrow framing" of problems that makes us miss

Similar Documents

Premium Essay

Wise Judgement Scenario

...A teenage girl is “in love” with her 17-year-old boyfriend. He is encouraging her to have sex with him saying that he will make sure they only have “protected” sex. As humans we are required to use our ability to make wise judgments on a daily basis, and in this scenario the teenage girl can use the five components of wise judgment to help her decide what to do in this difficult situation. Ultimately, the girl’s decision should be based upon what is best for her. The first component of wise judgment is factual knowledge about matters of life. This component focuses on knowledge about human nature, interpersonal relations, and social norms (Bolt, 2004). Utilizing this component will enable the girl to understand what motives her boyfriend may have for pressuring her into having sex with him. She should be able to conclude that her boyfriend is a typical 17-year-old boy with raging hormones, and the desire to have sex is just part of his human nature. She may also be able to conclude that he may be trying to fit in with social norms. Perhaps his friends have had sex and they are pressuring him into having sex to fit in with the group. The second component of wise judgment is procedural knowledge. Procedural knowledge is based upon strategies for dealing with life’s problems, handling conflict, and ways of offering advice (Bolt, 2004). This component can help the girl explain the consequences of having sex at such a young age to her boyfriend. By offering her advice...

Words: 1084 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

Discretionary Actions by Chiefs of Police

...Every day people make decisions to choose what should be done in any given situation. Knowing what is appropriate and what is inappropriate is the freedom to utilize action or judgment to make these decisions. In law enforcement, police professionals are trained to be able to face any task or situation by utilizing good judgment and making sound decisions alone or with little or no supervision. This is the heart of police discretion ( The Rynard Law Firm, 2007). Discretion is the quality of having or showing discernment or good judgment within certain legal bounds (Merriam-Webster, 2012). Although regular routines and protocols should be followed by officers to make sure that they abide by the law as well as enforce the law, often situations arise that force officers to decide or act according to their own judgment. Even though the Chiefs of police are not in the field, they still have to use discretion in making very important decision that affects the department and the community as a whole. In the DC Sniper case, Chief of Police Charles A. Moose use discretion in the investigation by deciding what information should be shared with the public. As the Chief of Police one of his most important duties is to reassure the public of their safety. While trying to keep the public informed without causing panic, Chief Moose limited the details of the investigation in order not to alert the snipers. With this being one of the most tumultuous killing sprees within the DC, Maryland...

Words: 1100 - Pages: 5

Free Essay

The Role of Perception in the Decision Making Process

...The Role of Perception in the Decision Making Process. Your name Name of Institution The Role of Perception in the Decision Making Process Perception is more important than reality. It doesn’t matter what is reality if a person views it differently. One’s behavior is a direct result of the way he or she sees things. Two people may experience an event together, a car accident, for example; when interviewed there will be similarity in their accounts, but each will have a unique interpretation of the details. Why is this? According to Stephen P. Robbins, “The world as it is perceived is the world that is behaviorally important,” (Robbins, 2005, p. 134). Because people act on their perceptions, each person’s perception is his or her reality. This explains how reality can be different for different people. Perception must be considered in organizational behavior. Perception effects management decisions, whether deciding to hire a new employee, giving a performance review, or making a major decision regarding the direction to take their business. Perception also determines an employee’s job satisfaction and performance. Factors influencing perception are threefold, the perceiver, the situation, and the target or subject (Robbins, 2005, p. 135). One interprets situations or information in light of his or her own attitudes and experiences. If a person has had positive experiences in a similar situation, or with a similar type of manager...

Words: 1558 - Pages: 7

Premium Essay

Psy 220 Wise Judgement

...components to making a wise judgment according to Baltes and his colleagues. These components can be applied to any real-life situation. How can a mother of a seven year old child that has stolen a box of cookies from the store while she was grocery shopping use these five components to make the best decision to handle the situation? The first component is factual knowledge about matters of life. This consists of knowing the qualities and traits shared by all humans, how they relate to or are associated with other people, and what is socially acceptable as normal behavior. In this situation, the mother knows that stealing is not a trait that is shared by everyone. This is not an acceptable behavior and comes with punishment on many different levels. Procedural knowledge is the second component to making a wise judgment. In this component, one must come up with ways to deal with the situation without conflict. One must offer advice without sounding controlling or demanding of the other person. The mother must explain to the child that what she did was wrong and that instead of just taking something, ask for it. The daughter may not always get what she wants but she did not commit a crime by just taking something without paying for it. Lifespan contextualism is another component to making a wise judgment. In this component one must be aware that life changes on a daily basis and each situation must be handled in a different way. Throughout life, one will have many roles they play...

Words: 1055 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

Adolescences

...Adolescence Medical Decisions In society there's constant debates on the issue of adolescence being considered mature enough to make their own decisions. For a long period of time adolescence have been viewed as immature and less capable then adults in making a living. Issues on if adolescents are capable of making their own medical decisions has been one argument that’s been represented with both con and pro views. Many argue that adolescents should have control over their body and be allowed to make a decision especially when dealing with medical issues that effect them emotionally and physically. But have they ever thought about the consequences these decisions can have on the adolescent life? On the contrary, others argue that adolescents lack full capacity to make complex decisions, giving parents the responsibility to make these decisions for them. Adolescence are not able to think with ethical reasoning until they are consider adults. According to previous research, I believe adolescence do are not mature enough to make their own medical decisions. It all relies on the variety of aspects they encounter as they grow older such as cognitive development and decision-making. The way adolescence brain works effects the decision they make. In the article “Maturity of Judgment in Adolescence: Psychosocial Factors in Adolescent Decision Making” both authors Laurence Steinberg and Elizabeth Cauffman states that impulse control takes an important role in decisions. “An individual...

Words: 1053 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

Role of Independent Director

...directors'. The Companies Bill 2011 includes number of new provisions related to independent directors. It includes a 'Code For Independent Directors' (Schedule IV). According to the Bill an independent director is a director other than a managing director or a whole-time director or a nominee director, who is not a promoter and who fulfils certain conditions specified in the Bill. Primarily he/she does not have any pecuniary relationship with the company or he/she, with relatives, does not hold more than two percent of the voting power of the company. The Bill describes an independent director as a person of integrity, who possesses relevant expertise and experience. The government expects independent directors to bring an independent judgment to bear on the Board's deliberations especially on issues of strategy, performance, risk management, resources, key appointments and standards of conduct; and to bring an objective view in the evaluation of the performance of board and management. As per the Companies Bill, their responsibility is to safeguard the interest of stakeholders, particularly minority shareholders and to balance conflicting interests of stakeholders. Balancing the conflicting interest is a tricky job and most experts believe that a company should not try to do that. Rather, it should focus on shareholder value while behaving responsibly to all stakeholders. Presumably, the government wanted to draw attention to CSR and therefore specifically mentioned that responsibility...

Words: 7427 - Pages: 30

Free Essay

Tess of the D'Urbervilles Male Dominance

...Male Dominance in Tess of the D’urbervilles The Victorian era, as described by Professor of History and Women's & Gender Studies Nancy Reagin in her essay “Victorian Women: the Gender of Oppression”, witnessed the ideology of separate spheres in which society viewed men as independent and reasonable while viewing women as passive, dependent on men, emotional, and submissive. Men were given the governing role in which they would dominate society due to their ability to make rational decisions while women were expected to unquestionably fill the social roles that men decided for them, and those roles usually revolved around a woman’s duties as a mother and a wife. In marriage, a woman was expected to abide by the orders and views of her husband, and man and wife became one in terms of a woman’s rights, property, and identity. In Tess of the D’urbervilles, a book written in the Victorian Era, Hardy conveys this ideology of separate spheres in his portrayal of men and their dominance over women in society, primarily Tess. Their dominance is shown in how the men act as the masters of society, but it is also seen in how the women in Tess unquestionably view the men as the dominant gender. Often, the women are blindly influenced and act passively when interacting with male characters such as Alec and Angel. They are also seen to be very dependent on the men, and the men acknowledge that, for that is expected of a woman in that age to not be able to make a living for herself. The...

Words: 2406 - Pages: 10

Premium Essay

Ethics

...and dilemmas that are facing Valerie Valerie Young is challenged with ethical decisions she must make to satisfy her internal standards of excellence. She has the challenge of asking herself what to do with the information learned about the fragrance companies giving kickbacks to Lionel Waters, Valerie’s manager. The challenge being should she talk to anyone about it is a question we all face at some point as situations arise in our lives. Also, Valerie is faced with asking herself if this is her responsibility to bring this discovery to the attention of the CEO who hired Lionel Waters to start new product lines. The dilemmas are broken down within each challenge of personal ethics Valerie’s possesses. She has a hardy personality which (Hellriegel & Slocum, 2009, p194) note as “A person with various characteristics such as commitment, reacting to issues as challenges and opportunities, perceiving that one has control over one’s own life.” Knowing what makes up this personality, Valerie is critically evaluating what to do if anything. As (Hauser, 2006) described the way the dilemma appeared is like an automatic reaction, and then critically evaluate what we would do if we in the conflicting situation. Valerie’s morals are being questioned within herself because not having the confirmation automatically about what exactly to do which is based on emotions. The sacrifice she is making compromises her values. As she argues against the force of emotions, Valerie is...

Words: 2003 - Pages: 9

Premium Essay

Articles Summary

...difficult to make forecasts of natural phenomena such as the weather; it is even harder to make forecasts of any processes that include people, their knowledge and behavior. Project management is one of these processes. Estimation is a very important step in modeling and decision analysis. Without proper assessments of project duration, finish time, cost, resources, success rate and other parameters, it is almost impossible to select a proper alternative and ultimately make a good decision. Accurate estimation cannot be done without valid inputs. The information for estimations can only come from two sources: 1) Historical data or data about previous similar projects. This data can be captured in the project manager’s brain or obtained as a result of data analysis. 2) Measurements of the current project’s performance. Analysis of current project performance project makes is possible to forecast what will happen in the future. The human brain processes this information extremely fast using certain simplification techniques. In many cases, they work very well, in others they can lead to systemic mistakes or biases e.g. ➢ Motivational biases are caused by the personal interest of the person making the estimation. ➢ Cognitive biases are related to simplification techniques that people use to process information. According to the theory he developed together with Amos Tversky, people use heuristics or “rules of thumb” as a basis for their...

Words: 2912 - Pages: 12

Free Essay

Drinking Age Bus/275

...18 or 21? BCOM/275 6/20/2013 Michelle Batson The great debate of the use of alcohol has challenged the nation for many years. The age limit that has been put into place in many states to legally drink is 21. Yet some still believe that 18 should be the legal age for the consumption of this drug called alcohol. Some argue that if a person can join the military, vote and be held responsible for themselves at the age of 18 that they should also have the right to drink alcohol. Others claim that fatalities from underage drinking are just too high and at the age of 18 a person is still not responsible enough to drink. In 1984 a bill was brought before government to raise the age to 21 or states would lose highway funding and in 1987 the government complied and signed a bill that forced most states to raise the legal age to 21, if they did not comply the state would lose ten percent of their highway funding. Some saw this as unfair and put laws into place where it was still legal for underage drinking with certain conditions attached, such as being supervised within your parents’ home. This bill has claimed to of saved 17,000 lives since 1988. The debate on the drinking age has raised many concerns for both sides and still continues to be a subject that brings controversy to any conversation. The pros of lowering the drinking age to 18 can be a very valid argument. At the age of 18 a young person is considered an adult and most believe that if you have the rights to join the...

Words: 1779 - Pages: 8

Premium Essay

Critical Thinking and Ethics

...Critical Thinking and Ethics Christian Cavalho ETH/316 Feb 11, 2015 Kevin Burke Critical Thinking and Ethics The principles and rules of critical thinking cannot be applied to ethical reasoning. With critical thinking one must recognize problems and acquire facts to make a clear and reasoned judgment or decision on a question. With ethical reasoning it is more of an internal choice with personal queries about what is right and what is wrong to do. Ethical reasoning does have a major role in critical thinking. When one makes any decision, that person’s ethics with undoubtedly, if implicitly, have an affect on the outcome of the question at hand. Opinions are based on fact, at times they are based on mistaken facts, the same can be said for ethical opinions. If everyone followed the rules and guidelines of logic, I believe we would indeed and definitely still need ethical decision-making. While logic asks us to recognize problems, gather relevant information, comprehend and interpret said information, and to come up with a conclusion what is the right course of action to the initially recognized problem or qualm, it still does not answer the question of what we ought to do, as stated by Hume. As stated in the text “is” statements are defined by fact. However, Adler has differing views from Hume, he states that it is possible to make an “ought” statement from “is” statements. Adler states, “We ought to desire what is really good for us” and by that...

Words: 520 - Pages: 3

Premium Essay

Anhlavodichne

...Organizational theory and behavior are a vital part of any organization and can be a critical area that determines an organizations success in any industry. If and how these concepts are uniquely applied, organizations can define many different areas of their organizational structure. The Starbucks Corporation has become a well-known globally successful company. In analyzing the application of the organizational behaviors of communication, culture, and decision making, we can determine how these concepts have made this corporation successful. Organizational Communication Communication in the Starbucks organization is exceptionally successful. In order to appear transparent as an organization, provide sound direction of communication, maintain solid channels of communication, and still the rumor-mill; Starbucks has taken immense strides in concentrating on this aspect of its organizational behavior. Although Starbucks goes to no great lengths to define or list their organizational structure (Hawks, Kembell, Kembell, Olsen, & Perry, 2002), Recent changes in the organization define the organization as a matrix structure (Shultz, 2008). These changes in the organization, done to improve the customer experience, helped define the communication directions used by the organization. George and Jones (2005), state that the matrix organizational structure is a very effective way to take full advantage of all communication channels. Whether the organization wishes to label the organizational...

Words: 2006 - Pages: 9

Premium Essay

Internet Finance

...Chapter 2 A Behavioral Finance Approach to Decision Making in Entrepreneurial Finance Rassoul Yazdipour By ‘uncertain’ knowledge, let me explain,… We simply do not know. J.M. Keynes (1937) Humans have an additional capability that allows them to alter their environment as well as respond to it. This capacity both creates and reduces risk. Paul Slovic (1987) All risk that is acted upon must be perceived risk because perception is based upon sensory data. We can only sense the ‘real world’ because we have no other way of being informed. Robert Olsen (2010) Understanding a problem is half of the solution Unknown Abstract  Three central decisions in entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial finance – entry/seed funding, financing/investment, and growth/exit – are discussed and case is made for applying the behavioral finance theories and concepts to better understand the involved decision processes, and consequently, to help improve the decisionmaking process for both entrepreneurs and venture capitalists. The behavioral finance approach is important because the traditional finance has remained silent on the first issue, and the Agency Theory (financial contracting), which is effectively the only theory that is applicable to issues in entrepreneurial finance, has produced mixed empirical results. (See for example Bitler et al. [Bitler MP, Moskowitz T J, VissingJorgensen A (2009) Why do entrepreneurs hold large ownership shares? Testing agency theory using entrepreneur...

Words: 7844 - Pages: 32

Premium Essay

Desicion Making Theory

...Introduction Being in a more and more globalized economic world, it’s not easy to make sure any decision would end up with the best reward, for there are a lot of potential problems (competition and market change for instance) may finally lead to a risky situation. This would basically answer the question—do I agree with the notion that “decisions involving huge outlays of capital almost classic gut decisions: they involve risky, inherently ambiguous judgments between unclear alternatives”? However, even I do believe making decisions of most investment would have to face the uncertainty; it is comprehensive to notice some outlays of capital are not so hard to make. This article mainly focuses on illustrating this point of view along with the decision-making theory and some examples from industries. To get away from useless factors, suppose an ideal rational manager acting exactly in line with the decision-making theory, which means one would effectively following six steps(identify a problem, identify decision criteria, allocating weights, developing alternatives, analyze alternatives, and finally follow up and evaluate). It’s quite impossible for any investment to be successful with any of these steps in an ambiguous situation (although personally the third and fifth step reveals its complexity under most cases and is better been taken care of in particular). That’s the reason I believe this statement has its point under most cases, but with the idea of some outlays of capital...

Words: 2262 - Pages: 10

Premium Essay

Intro Problem Solving L04

...PROBLEM SOLVING Key Points 1 2 3 Army Decision Making The Seven Problem Solving Steps The Leader’s Role e A good leader must sometimes be stubborn. Armed with the courage of his convictions, he must often fight to defend them. When he has come to a decision after thorough analysis—and when he is sure he is right— he must stick to it even to the point of stubbornness. General of the Army Omar Bradley Tactics and Techniques Track Introduction to Problem Solving n 281 Introduction As an Army leader, you will be involved in problem solving daily. Some problems are simple and only require you to use your intuition, experience, and best judgment. At other times, however, you will face problems that are more complex. These require you to follow a systematic approach to define and analyze the problem, develop and analyze possible solutions, choose the best solution, and implement a plan of action. The amount of time and resources you apply to any given problem depends on its complexity, the amount of time available, and your experience as a leader. In this section, you will learn about the Army problem solving process— a systematic, logical approach to problem solving and decision making designed to help leaders make better decisions. As a junior officer, you may not face a decision on the scale of that facing BG John Buford on 30 June 1863. But using this systematic approach to problem solving can help you make decisions as solid as the one he made that day. Buford...

Words: 2602 - Pages: 11