Assignment #4: Russia Annexation of Crimea International Negotiation

by
Therron Allen
Reginald Bruno
Monekka Munroe
Lillia Stroud
Norman Thompson
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EDD 7812 OL1 32446
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Strategies and Models of Mediation and Negotiation

Nova Southeastern University
April 13th, 2014
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Russia Annexation of Crimea
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This paper will address the Russia annexation of Crimea and an International Negotiation related To the UN resolution for the West to increase the level of sanctions against Russia. Russia finalized its annexation of Crimea in March 2014. Although sudden, this annexation is not a new and instantaneous interest for the Russian government. There is a long history connecting these two countries dating back to many years ago.
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Parties involved in the conflict
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This international conflict involves the entire world as each country was interested in a peaceful resolution. Countries sharing a border with Russia are extremely anxious and fearful their security may be threatened as a result of this conflict. Therefore, the primary parties in this conflict is represented by the United Nations (UN) representing international law and security; Ukraine, the injured party; Russia, the supposedly aggressor; and Crimea. Additionally, the countries representing the UN Security Council become primary members of the conflict by nature of their position as permanent members of the organization. Therefore, France, China, Russia, the United States, and The United Kingdom are all primary parties of the conflict.
Moreover, in late March CNN reported, President Barak Obama’s strong message to Russia concerning their decision to seize Crimea, "If anyone in the Russian leadership thought the world wouldn't care about their actions in Ukraine or that they could drive a wedge between the European Union and the United States, they clearly miscalculated," Obama said. CNN Reporter Laura Sparks reflected on Russia and Crimea’s last union which ended in 1954, when it was given to Ukraine, then part of the Soviet Union. The region has a majority ethnic Russian population and other historic ties to Russia. Subsequently, the international community is in an uproar as a large majority of Crimea’s population voted in favor of joining Russia in a controversial referendum recently. Thus, this conflict has and has had wide spread affects across the nations, as the future of Ukraine has been a concern for decades (Sparks, 2014). Kunihiko Miyake, research director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies in Tokyo, advises “The Crimea is a game-changer. This is not fire on a distant shore for us. What is happening is another attempt by a rising power to change the status quo (Fackler and Cooper, 2014).”
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U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove tells the New York Times (2014), “Russia's seizure and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region has caused the deepest crisis in East-West relations since the Cold War, leading the United States and Europe to impose sanctions on Moscow. They have said they will strengthen those sanctions if Russia moves beyond Crimea. NATO military chiefs are concerned that the Russian troops on Ukraine's border could pose a threat to eastern and southern Ukraine. Breedlove said Russia could have several potential objectives, including an incursion into southern Ukraine to establish a land corridor to Crimea, pushing beyond Crimea to Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odessa or even threatening to connect to Transdniestria, the mainly Russian-speaking, separatist region of Moldova that lies to the west of Ukraine. Russia also has forces to the north and northeast of Ukraine that could enter eastern Ukraine if Moscow ordered them to do so, Breedlove said (Gordon, 2014).
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Crimea
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Background
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Crimea has a long and varied past, moving from independent state, to being held by multiple countries, and occupied by German forces during WWII. The county, physically and at times politically connected to Ukraine, exists on a peninsula in the Black Sea. This location makes Crimea a strategic stronghold for both military and trade reasons, and all the more valuable. During the time of Russian imperialism in the early 1900’s, Crimea was declared a province of Ukraine, and both fell under control of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and remained so until its demise in 1991. At that time, both Ukraine and Crimea voted to separate from Russia and become independent, however in 1992 Crimea voted to have its own separate government. While striving to be independent in their thoughts and processes, Crimea remains a part of the Ukrainian government (Taylor, 2014). Conversely, under the USSR, Crimea evolved into becoming increasingly “Russian” verses Ukraine, primarily due to a large influx of military, support, commercial, and other personnel moving into the region (Sengupta, 2014) .
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The relationship between Crimea and Ukraine is certainly unusual, as one is maintaining it is independence, while the governing body does not recognize this fact. This separation is further exemplified by language differences. In a 2012 study, when combining the 2 regions together, 65% of the respondent’s identified Ukrainian as their primary language, with Russian at 38%. When looking at Crimea alone, 67% identified Russian as their primary language (The Study Group, 2012). Efforts by one portion of a county to separate or secede from the main body are not without precedent. The most recent example is the Provence of Quebec and their several attempts to become independent from the rest of Canada.
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Gault (2006) suggests, “Russia’s motivation is a pungent blend of historical obligation and varied systems of politics based on practical rather than moral or ideological considerations. Moscow’s goal is to embolden ethnic Russians living in southeastern Ukraine and also preserve its access to Crimea’s military bases and ports. Gualt (2006) goes on to suggest, Russian identity, too, is tied up in Crimea. It’s an open question which factor is most important. And after Ukrainians deposed their pro-Russian president in February, Moscow mobilized to claim what it saw as rightfully its own.” The Asia News Monitor wrote in collusion to this, the United States and Europe are in no position to force the Russians out of Crimea. The writer suggests, “What Mr. Obama can do, is beef up the sanctions issued so far and remain steadfast in their application. He should also make clear to Mr. Putin that while NATO and the West have no intention of being dragged into a hot conflict with Russia over Ukrainian sovereignty, if Russia and Ukraine come to blows, NATO powers will have little recourse but to assist Ukraine with military restocking (Asian News Monitor, 2014).
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Ukraine
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Background
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Ukraine, a sovereign country is country located in Eastern Europe. Ukraine is also known as a unitary state that is comprised of 24 provinces. The capital city of Ukraine is Kiev, which is also the largest city in Ukraine. Ukraine is further known for its sizable military presence; the second largest in Europe (The World Fact Book, n.d.).
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Protests erupted in November of 2013 as a result of President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision establish a relationship with Russia although originally, an agreement was made that would create stronger ties with the European Union, not Russia. The anti-government protesters felt they could no longer trust the Ukrainian government officials and agreed to protest, at first non-violently, until the President Yanukovych agreed to address their concerns. Soon after however, the protests turned violent and several police officers as well as protesters were injured (BBC News-Ukraine, 2014). After the violence ensued, talks were held between government officials and opposition-leader Vitaly Klitschko. At this point, the protesters had one request- for the president and his cabinet to resign their positions. However, Yanukovych made it clear that this was not an option: “He said no to his resignation." Klitschko told opposition supporters who want the government to resign and start early elections, among other demands.
"It does not make sense to negotiate with someone who intends to cheat," Klitschko said. (Gumuchian & Butenko, 2014). “The EU trade pact has been years in the making and the agreement would open borders to trade and set the stage for modernization and inclusion. Ukraine's government says the terms needed to be renegotiated to protect Ukrainians better” (Gumuchian & Butenko, 2014).
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Crimea, Russia, and Ukraine
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Due to population movements and other factors as noted, Crimea identifies more with Russian culture, history, and language. Russia maintains a large presence, with a naval base in Sevastopol, its largest port city, along with several military installations.
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According to Gault (2014) Russia has always felt it gave Crimea away to Ukraine during the reign of the USSR, but in doing so turned its back on Russian-born natives that built the region. Further, Gault (2014) feels the annexation of Crimea by Putin is more of a “return things back to normal” exercise rather than a true threat to the entire region.
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Situation Assessment
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Backlash
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The unanimous vote by the Crimean people and the local government to secede from Ukraine and join Russia, given the historical background, and long disassociation with Ukraine, is neither unexpected nor irrational. However, the western world and the UN is fearful this action is being lead by the Russian Government and a full scale invasion of Ukraine may be the next step. Therefore, the UN Security Council has scheduled meeting to discuss method to de-escalate the conflict or to devise ways to dissuade Russia from any further aggression.
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Getting to the table prepared
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The UN Security council met on several occasions in attempts to find diplomatic solutions to the crisis. According to Thompson (2012) preparation is 80% of the negotiation process. The Security Council issued warnings to Russia requesting that the Ukraine Government be allowed to resolve the crisis within Crimea without outside interference. However, the members of the Security Council educated themselves on the issues and facts surrounding the matter, and possible actions to implement. Breslin and Rubin (1999) suggest team preparedness and team unification as key factors in multi-dimensional negotiation. Therefore, the team should be completely prepared on the issues and strategies prior to entering the negotiations. Similarly, Kremenyuk (2002) recommends building coalitions and collaboration among the parties prior to entering in the negotiations with the other side.
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Sizing up the other party
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Harvard Business Essentials (Negotiation, 2003) stress preparation and information as the keys to a successful negotiation. Identifying any weakness in the other side’s position may create an advantage for the other side. In evaluating the situation the UN team must evaluate the situation and identify the ideal outcome. This value is referred to as the target or aspiration point (Thompson, 2012). The UN’s aspiration would be to convince the Russians to withdraw from Crimea and allow the Ukraine Government to resolve the situation internally. However, failing to accomplish the withdrawal, what is the next alternative.
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Establishing the Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA)
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In establishing the best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA) for the United Nations Security Council, the team had to consider and dismiss armed conflict as the worst course of action. According to Harvard Business Essentials (Negotiation, 2003), establishing a BATNA allows the negotiator to accept any deal superior to the BATNA created. The UN’s best alternative is to coerce the Russians to cease hostilities with the treat of economic sanctions.
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Engaging in the Pre-Negotiations
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The UN Security Council consists of France, China, Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom who are the founders of this organization. Consequently, as founding members, these five countries are allowed to the right to Veto any actions brought against them by the council detrimental to their interest (UN voting systems and records, n.d. ). Therefore, Russia as a permanent member of the Security Council is expected to Veto the threatened resolution.
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The strategy of the UN is to isolate Russia from the world community to show disapproval of Russia’s action. Consequently the other members of the Security Council are campaigning for a unanimous vote against Russia from all other member nations of the UN.
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Russia
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Why Did Russia Annex Crimea? According to AP news report on CBS News (2014), “Russia's
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------------------------------------------------- upper house of parliament voted unanimously…to incorporate Crimea,...after
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------------------------------------------------- a hastily called referendum in which residents of the Black Sea peninsula overwhelmingly backed breaking off from Ukraine and joining Russia” (p.1). This could be a result of Russia’s
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dominating presence in Crimea leading up to this vote. Some argue that the annexation of
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Crimea is simply Russia’s way to regain imperialism within that region. This history of
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Countries dominated by Russian imperialism throughout the USSR, leading up to this
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Annexation is clearly indicated throughout much of the literature and historical reporting.
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According to a related website blog, Durand (2014) states,
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------------------------------------------------- Russians became the dominant majority in Crimea only after the ethnic cleansing of Crimean Tatars and other nationalities (i.e., Germans, Greeks, Armenians, and Bulgarians) by Stalin, which culminated in hundreds of thousands of them being deported to Central Asia during WWII. Many of them died in exile from hunger and disease. Later, most of the survivors were forbidden to resettle in Crimea. Instead the peninsula was repopulated with Russian colonists from the central regions of Russia.
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Another similar report related to this subject generated at the China.Org.cn website, summarizes
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The position of the Ukraine Foreign Ministry and others with a similar point of view- arguing
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‘We do not recognize and we will never recognize the so-called Crimean independence and the so-called joining of Crimea to Russia’ Foreign Ministry spokesman Eugene Perebiynis told reporters… dismissed the deal signed by Russian and Crimean leaders as illegal, calling on the international community to ‘take effective measures against the Russian aggression’…said the Ukrainian side regarded the annexation of Crimea as an attempt by the Kremlin to "revive Russian imperialism."
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What is Russian imperialism? According to the dictionary definition at massline.com
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(2014), Russian imperialism is defined as:
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Russia dominated the revisionist Soviet Union, and in effect the USSR included most (though not all) of the areas under Russian imperialist control in that era. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and the transformation of Russia and the rest of its pieces into Western-style monopoly capitalism (instead of state capitalism), the Russian bourgeoisie has more and more been attempting to reassert its imperialist control over that old empire. They still view countries which are now nominally completely independent, such as Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia, as regions properly under their thumb. This has already led to some small Russian imperialist wars
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While there may be a hint of truth to the Kremlin trying to “revive Russian imperialism”, Russia
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has maintained a very significant interest in Crimea for many reasons besides just regaining
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imperialism. Consider the following facts about the relationship between Russia and Crimea.
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Important Facts about the relationship between Russia and Crimea?
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Taylor (2014) explains,
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Crimea is populated by 60 percent Russian speakers * -------------------------------------------------
Is the base of Russia's Black Sea Fleet,
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Lallanilla (2014) reports: * -------------------------------------------------
The climate is a big reason why Russian leaders are so adamant about keeping Crimea within their sphere: The Black Sea is home to Russia's only warm-water ports. * -------------------------------------------------
Though Crimea is recognized worldwide as a part of Ukraine, the Russian Navy has kept its Black Sea Fleet stationed at a naval base in Sevastopol (in southern Crimea) since the late 1700s. * -------------------------------------------------
In 2010, Russia negotiated an agreement that allows the country to share the all-important Sevastopol naval base through 2042, in exchange for deep discounts of about $40 billion on natural gas from Russia. * -------------------------------------------------
The energy picture in Crimea and Ukraine is also tricky: Crimea relies on Ukraine for much of its electricity, and Europe relies on Russia for about 25 percent of its natural gas…. Furthermore, the natural gas that Russia sends to Europe travels largely through pipelines that snake across the Ukrainian landscape. * -------------------------------------------------
That's why any instability in the region is bound to send shock waves through international energy markets: Crude-oil prices jumped by $2.33 a barrel on Monday (March 3), due in large part to jitters over the Russian aggression in Crimea, according to the Associated Press.
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England (2014) reports * -------------------------------------------------
Ousted president Viktor Yanukovych resurfaced in Russia and claimed he is still Ukraine’s legitimate head of state. * -------------------------------------------------
Yanukovych, now apparently under Russia’s protection, hadn’t been heard from since he fled Kiev… He argued in a statement… that his opponents had reneged on a power sharing deal they had signed with him...The Russian government, which had refused to endorse the deal at the time, now says it agrees with him and wants the terms of the agreement to be reinstated * -------------------------------------------------
Ukraine’s new government said Thursday that Yanukovych and his allies had spirited $70 billion out of the country illegally since his election to the presidency in 2010. * -------------------------------------------------
Under the terms of last week’s short-lived deal, brokered by Poland, Germany and France, Yanukovych was to have remained in power until new presidential elections could be held in December. And a “national unity” government was to be formed with members from all the major parties. * ------------------------------------------------- Yanukovych absconded hours later, and the parliament voted shortly afterward to remove him from office. He has since been charged with “mass murder” in connection with the deaths of nearly 90 people during the protests. * -------------------------------------------------
The government installed… draws only from what had been the opposition parties — and this is a factor that Moscow especially objects to.
Perspective of Russian People: How does this play with the Russian/Crimea population?
One factor to consider in any negotiation is how it plays out in the perspective of people who are most impacted by the decision. At this time, it appears that the Russian people are in favor of the annexation, and in favor of the Russian government moving forward in solidifying the position it has taken against the West, Ukraine, and in its annexation of Crimea. This is validate by Walker
(2014) who asserts that, “So far, the decision to seize Crimea has gone down well in Russia, evidenced by the seemingly endless ovations for Putin during his speech, and by his record-high approval ratings among the public” (last para.).
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The United States’ Position
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The United States is not taking Putin’s decision lightly and has in turn led the efforts of the United Nations and other major world leaders to assure Russia suffers the strongest consequences for its endeavors. In a diplomatic blow to Russia, the United Nations will continue to view Crimea as part of Ukraine in line with a General Assembly resolution. CNN reports, the 193-nation assembly on March 28 declared invalid the Moscow-backed referendum across Crimea that led to the Black Sea peninsula's secession from Ukraine and annexation to Russia. There were 100 votes in favor, 11 against, 58 abstentions and 24 countries that did not vote. Although the resolution is not enforceable in the way that U.N. Security Council resolutions can be, its adoption means the entire United Nations system will continue to recognize Kyiv's authority over the Crimean peninsula and ignore Russian claims to the territory (Asian News, 2014).”
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China and Russian Interest
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China and Russia shares common interests at the United Nations (UN) and both countries collaborate and align themselves to protect their sovereignty, autonomy and independence of decision-making; in maintaining geostrategic balance and national security; and in promoting the national economic and political interests of their respective nation (Ferdinand, 2013). The countries differ in policy only in the acceptance and proliferation of Iran’s nuclear policy. Otherwise, both parties support each other in the UN voting together.
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Background and History
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During the 1970s and 1980s the United States occupied a prominent place in Chinese foreign policy. However, the Chinese Government has perceived the country’s economic ties with Unites States as China’s biggest problem. Therefore, the Chinese leadership solicited partnership with Russia to help them resist the American economic pressure. This economic collaboration between Russia and China has enabled them to form a formidable alliance as permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (Ferdinand, 2007).
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Economic collaboration between Russia and China is crucial to the prosperity of both nations survival against western domination. According to the Russian economists the most natural and effective path for strengthening Russia lies in the direction of China. Likewise the Chinese Government believes a Eurasian orientation is safer for its foreign policy as opposed to a Pacific one (Ferdinand, 2007).
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Negotiation Role Play Strategy
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China’s Role in the Conflict
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Two primary factors are involved in conflict resolutions and negotiations; framework and structure. According to Kremenyuk (2002) structural factors comprise of the number of parties involved in the conflict, the number of issues at stake, and the distribution of power between the parties. Culture defines the framework in which the conflict is projected and dictates how the negotiations proceed (Kremenyuk, 2002).
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Negotiating is a multidimensional activity requires the party to adopt a specific strategy to protect his or her interests and values. The strategic choice of the participant is usually guided by the party’s culture. The Machiavellian culture is practiced by the Chinese who practices building coalitions with parties who share common interests regardless of who they are. Under the Chinese cultures, the approach is to split the problem into subsets and solve the pieces as the situation presents itself (Kremenyuk, 2002).
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Promoting a Constructive Climate
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The Chinese are very concerned with preserving harmony among the participants of the negotiation and saving face. Therefore, the negotiators are cognizant regarding abiding by rules and principles. The Chinese believes in promoting a constructive climate by building respectful personal relationships with the other parties (Kremenyuk, 2002). The Chinese strategy is to show displeasure in Russia’s action in Crimea but preserve the China Russian relationship by abstaining from the UN vote.
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Reflection and Conclusion
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War has never proven to be beneficial under any circumstance. The end result of countless wars between nations has always remained the same; economic disaster, unnecessary loss of life (military and civilian), rebuilding of communities, and in many instances the financial assistance of other countries to aide in rebuilding and restructuring.
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Although the aforementioned conflict involves five international entities (Ukraine, China, Russia, Unites States, and Crimea), Breslin and Rubin (1999) states that those in conflict should want to “defuse the crisis on both sides and work toward a high-quality decision-making process that tries to control the perceived stakes, insure a flow of accurate, and credible information about the situation and the other’s intentions” (P. 53).
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References
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Asian News Monitor. (2014). After crimea. 210.12: 5. Retrieved from ProQuest Central
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Asian News Montior. (2014). United nations/russia: UN will treat crimea as part of ukraine, not russia – diplomats. Retrieved from ProQuest Central
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Asian News Montior. (2014). Russia/Ukraine: Further Russian Intervention in Ukraine Would Be 'Historic Mistake' - NATO. Retrieved from ProQuest Central
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Breslin, W. J. & Rubin, J. Z. (Eds.). (1999). Negotiation theory and practice. Cambridge, MA: The Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School.
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CBS News. (2014, March 21). Russia officially annexes Crimea away from Ukraine with
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signature from Vladimir Putin. Associated Press. Retrieved from: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-annexes-crimea-away-from-ukraine-with-signature-from-vladimir-putin/
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Cooper, H. and Fackler, M. (2014). U.S. Response to Crimea Worries Japan’s Leaders. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/06/world/asia/
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Dictionary of revolutionary Marxism online. (2014). Retrieved from
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http://massline.org/Dictionary/R.htm.
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Durand, Emily (2014). The Crimea annexation: Putin profits from Stalin’s crimes. Retrieved
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from http://www.counter-currents.com/2014/03/the-crimea-annexation/
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England, W. (2014, February 27). Ukraine’s Viktor Yanukovych remains defiant; tensions rise in
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Washington Post. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/gunmens-seizure-of-parliament-building-stokes-tensions-in-ukraines-crimea/2014/02/27/2539871c-9f83-11e3-9ba6-800d1192d08b_story.html
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Ferdinand, P. (2007) Sunset, sunrise: China and Russia construct a new relationship. International Affairs 83(5) 841–867
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Ferdinand, P. (2013) China and Russia at the United Nations Retrieved from www.chathamhouse.org
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Harvard Business Essentials: Negotiation. (2003). Harvard Business School Publishing Corporation
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Gault, M. (2014). This is why russia wants crimea. Retrieved from https://medium.com/war-is-boring/8fd8584652d4
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Gordon, M. (2014). NATO commander says he sees potent threat from russia. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/03/world/europe/nato-general-says-russian-force-poised-to-invade-ukraine.html?_r=0
Gumuchian, M. L. & Butenko, V. (2014). Ukraine: No deal in talks between government and protesters. Retrieved from http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/23/world/europe/ukraine-protests/
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Kremenyuk, V.A. (Ed.). (2002). International negotiation: Analysis, approaches, issues (2nd ed.). San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.
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Lallanilla, M. (2014, March 03). 5 key facts about Crimea. Livescience. Retrieved from:
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http://www.livescience.com/43815-facts-about-crimea-ukraine-russia.html
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Spark, L. (2014). Obama: U.S. and Europe united over Ukraine crisis. Retrieved from: http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/26/politics/ukraine-crisis/index.html?iid=article_sidebar
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Taylor, A.(2014, February 27). To understand Crimea, take a look back at its complicated
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history. Washington Post. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/02/27/to-understand-crimea-take-a-look-back-at-its-complicated-history/
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The World Fact Book-Ukraine (n.d.) Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/up.html
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Thompson, L.L. (2012). The mind and heart of the negotiator. (5th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
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Ukraine rejects Crimea's accession treaty with Russia. (2014). China.org.cn. Retrieved from
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http://www.china.org.cn/world/2014-03/19/content_31831464.htm
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United Nation Security Council: Voting System and Records (n. d.) Retrieved from http://www.un.org/en/sc/meetings/voting.shtml
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Walker, S. (2014, March 23). Ukraine and Crimea: what is Putin thinking?Recent events are both
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a knee-jerk reaction by Putin and a culmination of his years of grievances with the international order. The guardian. Retrieved from: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/23/ukraine-crimea-what-putin-thinking-russia
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Why is Ukraine in turmoil. (2014). BBC News Europe. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-25182823