...The Rise and Risk of China Introduction Australia has felt the full impact of Chinas “extraordinary economic growth and active diplomacy” (Ikenberry 2011, 23) in East Asia. The power transition of China “becoming a formidable global power” (Ikenberry 2011, 26) is of growing importance to Australia’s economic prosperity and security (Shen 2009, 110). But as relative power begins to shift, the latest defence White Paper released last Friday May 3, stated “the relationship between the United States and China, the region’s and the globe’s two most powerful states, will more than any other single factor determine our strategic environment over coming decades” (Probyn and Wright 2013). Drawing upon the Research Thesis of Yi Shen at the University of NSW, the aim of this essay is to examine the repercussions of the US-China strategic rivalry over Taiwan. In the event of conflict, Australia would be forced to side with the US which “has kept Asia peaceful and Australia secure for many decades” (White 2011, 81). Maintaining a military alliance with the US as well as ongoing economic opportunities with China requires stable relations amongst Asian powers by adopting “the logic of concert” (White 2011, 90). As China becomes an ongoing threat to US primacy in Asia, it is in the best interest of Australia to maintain dual relations by the establishment of a new order that ensures regional stability and security throughout Asia. Clash over Taiwan Australia’s ability to maintain...
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...Adeola Adegbite March 21st 2013 African International Politics Professor Throup Failure of Organizations Throughout modern history, Western powers such as the United States and Europe have always assisted weaker nations in order for those countries to maintain internal stability and external relations with other nations. Most often, Western powers to aid states with failing democratic systems or nations that are strategic allies in certain regions of the world. For Western powers, it is important to promote the ideals of Democracy, and assist other nations deemed as crucial to Democracy’s development. Democracies and its expansion are vital for several reasons Democratic nations foster peace and stability. Following World War II, the United States believed it was imperative to sustain and support Western Europe. At the time Western Europe was facing the encroachment of the Soviet Union and its communist ideologies. The United States saw its support for Western Europe as essential in order to preserve their alliance, and most importantly to continue strengthening and expanding democratic ideals. However, as of the past twenty years, when it comes sub-Saharan Africa, Western nations are not nearly as concerned about a states internal or external stability. For example, countries such as Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, and many other sub-Saharan countries are in utter turmoil, but the West has turned a blind eye. The burden now falls on organizations like the United Nations, Organization...
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...ECIPE OCCasIOnal PaPEr • no. 2/2010 REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN ASIA: THE TRACK RECORD AND PROSPECTS By Razeen Sally Razeen Sally (razeen.sally@ecipe.org) is Director of ECIPE and on the faculty of the London School of Economics www.ecipe.org info@ecipe.org Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium Phone +32 (0)2 289 1350 ECIPE OCCASIONAL PAPER ExECuTIvE SuMMARy This is the season for regional-integration initiatives in Asia. There is talk of region-wide FTAs, and there are east-Asian initiatives on financial and monetary cooperation. But grand visions for Asian regional blocs are not achievable. Regional economic integration is most developed in east Asia, but only because of manufacturing supply chains linked to global markets. South Asia is the most malintegrated region in the world. And east and south Asia are much less integrated in finance than they are in trade and FDI – due to highly restrictive national policies governing financial markets. Asia’s existing FTAs are “trade light”. They are largely limited to tariff cuts, but have barely tackled non-tariff regulatory barriers in goods, services and investment, and are bedevilled by complex rules of origin requirements. An APEC FTA initiative has gone nowhere – entirely predictable given such a large, heterogeneous grouping. An east-Asian or a pan-Asian FTA, by discriminating against third countries, would compromise regional production networks linked to global supply chains. Moreover, huge economic...
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...The essential institution of China is called Regionally Decentralized Authoritarian (RDA) system. “The RDA system is characterized by a highly centralized political and personnel controls at the national level and a regionally decentralized administrative and economic system.” There are many key features of this RDA system which impacts a lot on China’s reform practices in the past 30 years. First of all, one of the features is that the sub-national governments are more powerful than other sub-national government in the world because they are responsible for deeper and wider regional matters than simply fiscal issues. Another feature is that regional government is encouraged to be economically self-contained in order to develop faster than other region after the reform started. Moreover, another feature is that each regional government, especially those special economic zones are competing with other region by attracting more Foreign Direct Investment in order to get more incentive and promotion from the central government. Without all these above features, China’s reform practices and performance would be substantially different from what has happened in the past 30 years. Although China is highly decentralized economically, it is neither a de jure nor a de facto federal state because of the backbone of China’s RDA regime, the Chinese Communist Party. CCP makes the RDA regime fundamentally different from a federal system by constituting China’s non federal status and...
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...calculated decisions that dictate whether or not a state will gain or lose power. Diplomacy, policy, economic capabilities, and nationalism are some of the many tools we use to measure when states gain or lose power. One major element seen when talking about the possibility of China and Russia being peer competitors towards the United States in the international realm is in fact competition or rivalry. When nations see competition, they start acting and responding differently internationally and nationally in an attempt to combat this competition. Additionally, the choices a state makes when looking at state competition can lead to issues that can easily threaten the organization of power within the international realm. Russia is a prime example of a state that is attempting to challenge the United States’ quest for power. The actions Russia (or the U.S.) takes or does not take will be the direct result to something more serious such as embargos, alliances, a plethora of international policies and/or full scale war. Russia’s bold international moves to support the annexation of Crimea and blatant violation of arms treaty against the U.S. are signs of Russia challenging not only the United States’ power but the global balance of power as it is understood in today’s modern world. Blatantly lashing out and cheating treaties aren’t the only ways a nation can come to be a potential threat to the United States’ security. China is a prime candidate for being a more subtle peer-competitor because...
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...United States, Brazil &Venezuela Abstract This research seeks to examine the strategic implications facing the United States of America’s due to its benign interest in the Caribbean and Latin America (Americas) given the People’s Republic of China (China) increasing economic interest in the region. It is intended to first define the current security environment of the Americas and the relations between Brazil and Venezuela with that of the United States of America (United States) and China. Thereafter, China’s economic and domestic agenda in the Americas will be examined with hypotheses of the emerging global power potential growth success, challenges or possible collapse in her foreign policy. The likely consequences facing Brazil, Venezuela and the United States will also be examined. The assessment will be done across a continuum of China’s realized economic growth, development of hostile relations due to competition for scarce energy sources or possible collapse due to the country’s internal problems. Finally, the research seeks to encourage proactive thinking by the United States on China’s increasing political and military influence in the region and its possible underlying agenda of becoming the next global super power or hegemony. Introduction A general perception persists in the Caribbean and Latin America that the United States is disinterested in the security of the region with its emphasis placed on the global war on terror in the Middle East –...
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...Regional Perspectives on ASEAN - the United States Enhanced Partnership By Endra Introduction The signing of the ASEAN declaration (Bangkok Declaration) by Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand on 8 August 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand marked the establishment of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). As the regional organization, the top priority of ASEAN is to accelerate the economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region. Later on other countries in the region also joined this organization as follows; Brunei Darussalam in 1984, Vietnam in 1995, Laos and Myanmar (Burma) in 1997, and Cambodia in 1999. The ten-member organization is enhancing partnership, not only nations in the region, but also outside the region, especially with the United States (US). The relationship between ASEAN and the US has entered its fourth decade of partnership. Since the first engagement in 1977, both sides have experienced the ups and down of partnership. This relationship will become more significant as it broadens the sectors of partnership in the future. Initially, starting with economic and development cooperation, the enhanced relationships, with cooperation on politic, regional security, counter terrorism and transnational crimes, has achieved a new era of “comprehensive partnership.” For the next decade, regional development in Asia Pacific will require the partnership to become more comprehensive. Several key issues in the region...
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...degree of regional stability. P2 – A fundamental branch of Chinese soft power and a cornerstone of the Beijing consensus is the multilateralism that characterizes China’s shifting diplomacy. P3 – The rise of East Asian multilaterals in the wake of the Asian financial crisis and the formation of new regional bodies, such as ASEAN +3, has been a direct response to the failures of APEC and the IMF. Conclusion – The harmonious engagement of regional actors in multilateral frameworks has significant capacity to contribute to regional stability, rendering Washington’s role as an extra regional balancer redundant. The rise of a unified East Asia will undoubtedly recalibrate regional security arrangements. 1.2 – The US is a regional balancer due to its hub-and-spoke system. Many theories support this such as hegemonic stability theory, which priorities unipolarity challenges from disputing the status quo but with the failure of IMF and China’s diplomacy shift, China has a more active role with the region becoming more influenced by Beijing Consensus. Regional collaboration has increased with ASEAN +3 of Japan, China, and South Korea. This shows a power shift away from the hub-and-spoke alliance system (Ward, Alex. 2013). Section 2 US will not be the indispensable power in East Asia in the time to come as they are slowly losing their power because ASEAN +3 are working and helping each other without the help from US. P1 shows that US still has a certain degree of power and is indispensable...
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...The Maritime Strategy of China in the Asia-Pacific Region Origins, Development and Impact HUANG, AN-HAO Submitted in total fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy August 2009 School of Social and Political Sciences Faculty of Arts The University of Melbourne Produced on archival quality paper ABSTRACT This thesis aims to examine how and why a continental-oriented China has shifted its maritime strategic orientation and naval force structure from its coast toward the far seas in an era of interdependent international system. Generally, China is an ancient continental land power with an incomplete oceanic awareness. With the transformation after the Cold War of China’s grand strategy from landward security to seaward security, maritime security interests have gradually become the most essential part of China’s strategic rationale. Undoubtedly, the quest for sea power and sea rights has become Beijing’s main maritime strategic issue. Given China’s escalating maritime politico-economic-military leverage in the Asia-Pacific region, its desire to become a leading sea power embodying global strategic thinking means that it must expand its maritime strategy by developing its navy and preparing for armed confrontation in terms of international relations realism. Conversely, Beijing’s maritime policy leads at the same time towards globalization, which involves multilateralism and strategic coexistence of a more pragmatic kind. This research...
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...HOW PEACEFUL IS CHINA’S PEACEFUL RISE? 16 July 2014 at 17:01 HOW PEACEFUL IS CHINA’S PEACEFUL RISE? The People’s Republic of China has been taking great pains to point out to its neighbours specifically, and the world in general, that they have nothing to fear of its increasing power. This approach is epitomised by China’s emphasis on the term ‘peaceful rise’ to describe its expanding influence since 2004. Not only is ‘peaceful rise’ used to allay concerns that China will use its power to further its goals at the expense of other nations, it is also used to directly contrast the PRC with the United States who have been embroiled in the same period in the controversial War on Terror. Given the prominence of the claim of the claim it is clearly in the interests of understanding international and regional developments that we pose the question “How peaceful is China’s peaceful rise?” As this essay will show, in light of the PRC’s domestic aims and because of China’s historical and cultural experiences, any attempt to answer question is contradictory, and depends on the region. The question of China’s contradictory peaceful rise is explained most completely by the theory of neoclassical realism. Neoclassical realism argues that it is the aim of states to gain power to pursue what they deem is in their national interests. It breaks down the state’s efforts in that respect into two spheres, the internal and the external. The external sphere is similar to other theories of...
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...optimal U.S. foreign policy strategy for our contemporary era. At one end of the debate are those advocating retrenchment, who see limited global threats on one hand and prioritize domestic concerns on the other—be they the budget-cutting of the Tea Party right or the nation-building-at-home of the progressive left. At the other end are neoconservatives and others pushing for re-assertiveness. This is based on a bullish assessment of U.S. power and the contention that it still is both in the U.S. national interest and that of world order for the United States to be the dominant nation. While retrenchment overestimates the extent to which the United States can stand apart, reassertiveness overestimates the extent to which it can sit atop. The United States must remain deeply and broadly engaged in the world, but it must do so through a strategy of recalibration to the geopolitical, economic, technological, and other dynamics driving this 21st-century world. This entails a re-appraisal of U.S. interests, re-assessment of U.S. power, and re-positioning Bruce W. Jentleson is a Professor at Duke University, Sanford School of Public Policy, and currently Distinguished Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. From 2009–2011, he served as Senior Advisor to the State Department Policy Planning Director. He is also an Editorial Board Member for TWQ. He can be reached at bwj7@duke.edu and on Twitter@BWJ777. Copyright # 2014 The Elliott School of International...
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...economic reforms have resulted in spectacular growth and poverty reduction. However, China’s institutions look ill-suited to achieve such a result, and they indeed suffer from serious shortcomings. To solve the “China puzzle,” this paper analyzes China’s institution—a regionally decentralized authoritarian system. The central government has control over personnel, whereas subnational governments run the bulk of the economy; and they initiate, negotiate, implement, divert, and resist reforms, policies, rules, and laws. China’s reform trajectories have been shaped by regional decentralization. Spectacular performance on the one hand and grave problems on the other hand are all determined by this governance structure. ( JEL O17, O18, O43, P21, P25, P26) 1. Introduction hinese economic reforms, which have been in flux for three decades, have more than doubled China’s economic growth, from an average of 4.4 percent annually before 1978 to an average of 9.5 percent after 1978. * University of Hong Kong and WCU–SNU. The first draft of this paper was written at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) when I was visiting there. The hospitality and generous support of HKUST are greatly appreciated. Comments from participants in conferences and seminars at the China Europe International Business School, University of Chicago, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, City University of Hong Kong, IEA Round Tables (Beijing), IPD (Columbia/Manchester), Macau, Peking, Seoul National...
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...like geography and history have always imprinted the demographical mosaic and development of a civilisation. The civilisations have always developed along the waters. The waters have been used as trade route since long and the modern trade has further enhanced the need of trade through waters. Pakistan being a gateway to the strategically important 'Strait Of Hurmoz' in the Indian Ocean, blessed with hidden treasures and bordering two Islamic Republics, Afghanistan and Iran, has always been a centre piece for Regional Politics. The emergence of Gwadar Port as a vibrant regional economic hub has caused the regional and extra regional powers to develop strategic and infra structural development with Gwadar Port to reach the energy rich Central Asian Republics (CARs). Iran and Dubai Port World (UAE) have interests to keep Gwadar Port out of competition as it serves as a gateway to Strait of Hurmoz. Pakistan needs to be addressing all the concerns to make Gwadar as a regional energy corridor. Key Words: Strategic, Gwadar, Sea lines of communications, Caspian region, Indian ocean Geo Strategic Importance “If we see this whole region, it is like a funnel. The top of the funnel is this wide area of Central Asia and also China's western region. And this funnel gets narrowed on through Afghanistan and Pakistan and the end of this funnel is Gwadar port. So this funnel, futuristically, is the economic funnel of this whole region” (Former President of Pakistan Pervaz Musharraf, 2002: 22nd...
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...islands between China and Japan, as well as those of Tiaoyutai in Taiwan. China disputed the handover of the islands to Japan by the US after its administration of the islands between 1945 and 1972 came to an end. The dispute is fuelled, especially, by the islands’ rich fishing grounds, proximity to vital shipping lanes, and probability of oil reserves (Lohmeyer, 2008). While Japan argues that a survey of the Islands has found them to solely belong to them, China claims that documentary evidence indicates that they belong to China and were taken as part of Japan’s imperial conquests. The US has no official position regarding the islands but they are included in the US and Japan’s Treaty of Mutual Security and Cooperation, which ensures that any attack on the island would require the USD to aid Japan. The Government of Japan bought three of the remaining disputed islands from private ownership, triggering a wave of anti-Japan protests in China (Lohmeyer, 2008). In this case, the ESCAP and the ARF should be involved in trying to resolve the issue, even though the conflict has not degenerated into war because the liberal international theory seems to relate best to the situation. What regional and international organizations would or should have involvement? Why? ESCAP, or the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the pacific is the UN’s regional arm for the Pacific and Asian region. Its establishment was meant to encourage its member states, of which China and Japan are...
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...strategy is thought provoking and needs serious consideration. Dr. Porter lays out a strong case for this change. When viewing current world affairs and ruling powers in emerging states, the United States can no longer be the sole first responder in the world. America needs to shift its strategic thinking, however, not necessarily to the degree of retrenchment described as hemispheric pullback or offshore balancing or worse pure isolationalism.1 These less expensive strategies might appear to be more attractive and palatable to the America, however they may be more detrimental. The level of withdrawal required could be viewed as the United States is abandoning its allies and with it destroying our credibility. A move to an over-the-horizon balancer may be a better alternative type of concert-balance strategy with today’s world political landscape. The growing multipolarity of the world political entities has to be taken into consideration in a shift in America’s strategic posture. The continued economic and military growth in China, the military reemergence of Russia and continual posturing of Iran helps advance the argument for a shift to a concert-balance strategy, with an emphasis on an over-the-horizon form. Countries like Germany, India, and Japan should be leveraged to allow them to emerge as regional balancers. Furthering these alliances regionally would allow the United States to maintain its strategic position and to balance while reducing its footprint.2 Further...
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